Comparing the Edmonton Oilers special teams to the Florida Panthers

Special teams, special plays, special players! A hallmark of a current trending saying found on social media, but also a very key aspect to both the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers postseason success. The result of the aforementioned success is a birth in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final with talent in abundance for both teams to display.

Head-to-head

Edmonton’s powerplay has been historically elite, scoring on 37.3% of opportunities. A feat most teams could only dream of, but one that is borderline expected when the top power play unit is comprised of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and Evan Bouchard, who have been the league benchmark for elite play. What Edmonton has not been known for in the past, is a well-renowned penalty kill, with the 2024 playoff iteration also setting records. Currently, the squad has killed off 28 consecutive opposition man advantages, headlined by stalwart Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Mattias Ekholm, Mattis Janmark, and Vincent Desharnais with more than competent assistance from the oft-maligned depth players Connor Brown and Darnell Nurse.

Although Edmonton has both top-ranked special teams units, Florida is no slouch in its own regard; with Aaron Ekblad, Gustav Forsling, Aleksander Barkov, and Kevin Stenlund comprising the second-best primary penalty-killing team. Where Florida is lacking compared to Edmonton, is the man advantage, converting 23.3% of opportunities, ranking sixth amongst teams in the 2024 playoffs. Florida deploys similarly to Edmonton, utilizing a four forward + one defenceman unit, consisting of Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhagae, Barkov, Sam Reinhart, and quarterbacked by Brandon Montour.

Both teams have comparable rates when reviewing several aspects of infractions. Yes, Florida has drawn the most amount of penalties in the postseason, but Edmonton ranks third, noting that discipline could be a factor in the outcome of the series. Even with both teams at risk of being heavily penalized, both teams have proven to be very adept at drawing penalties from opposition players, with Edmonton ranking second at 51 drawn, while Florida draws the most with 60. Noting the key to requiring discipline, Edmonton will have to keep their cool against known former Calgary pests, Tkachuk and Bennett.

What drives each team’s success?

The key to driving a strong power play revolves around a combination of perimeter play, net front traffic that leads to front-of-net screens, lateral passing/movement, and back-door tap-ins (see Leon Draisaitl from the goal line). Elite talent is always a massive boost to a power play, but the ability to provide the perfect mixture of the above listed translates to increased dangerous chances from High-Danger opportunities.

Florida has recorded a greater number of powerplays than Edmonton, nine to be exact, but comparing data via ratios provides greater relevant analysis. For example, when on the man advantage, Florida has generated 129 scoring chances, whereas Edmonton has 101 by comparison. Of the scoring chances, 39 of Florida’s are from the trapezoid in front of the net (aka “High Danger zone”), or 30.2% of all Panthers shots are classified as High-Danger. On the other hand, Edmonton has 36 High-Danger shots or 35.6% of Edmonton’s opportunities are from the trapezoid area. This statistic becomes more apparent when reviewing actual results, 42% (8/19) of Oiler goals on the power play were from High-Danger; whereas the Panthers have recorded 50% (7/14) of power play goals from the trapezoid.

On the flip side, the special teams play on the defensive side may drastically impact the series. For example, both teams have relatively limited opposing teams opportunities from High-Danger areas, Edmonton allowing 20 and the Panthers 24.

Edmonton has only allowed two goals against on the penalty kill all postseason, highlighted by Stuart Skinner’s 0.939% overall, but that dips to 0.857% (23/25), when shots originate from the High-Danger zone. This data strongly indicates Edmonton will need to box out the big Florida forwards to continue to find success when shorthanded.

The Panthers have not been as strong on the penalty kill but do remain very good overall, allowing six goals against when down a player. Unlike Skinner, Sergei Bobrovsky has been worse from mid-long range shots, allowing five goals from mid to long distance, an aspect the Oilers can utilize via a sneaky Nugent-Hopkins wrist shot or a Bouch bomb with Hyman proving a strong net-front screen. Bobrovsky has bettered Skinner overall in HDSV, noting that is a sparkling 0.958% when from the trapezoidal area, with Florida limiting second opportunities and being very adept at clearing rebounds.

Keys To success

Overall, both teams showcase strong special teams prowess with the possible outcome of the series being determined by whoever holds the edge.

Edmonton retains the advantage on the power play and when shorthanded but Florida’s second-best penalty kill will pose a very difficult obstacle to overcome. For Edmonton, the Oilers will need to capitalize on Bouchard’s shot and seam passes to Draisaitl to create increased lateral movement to snap quick shots. Additionally, Edmonton will need to maintain strong front-of-net screens to have traffic impact Bobrovsky’s vision, resulting in better odds of rebound mishandling and second whacks at loose pucks, also known as the Hyman special.

Edmonton will need to maintain discipline to not give Florida momentum and the edge, given they do capitalize from Edmonton’s weakest spot on the penalty kill, from the High-Danger area. If Edmonton can box out Tkachuk and Vergaghae and not allow second attempts at rebounds, it limits Florida’s strength to generate opportunities from the most dangerous part of the ice. If Edmonton can retain these advantages over Florida, the 2024 Stanley Cup may finally end up north of the Border for the first time since 1993.

All stats from NaturalStatTrick

Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire