Game 1 showed us that this second round matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars is a going to be a tight, closely matched, and hard-fought series. The Oilers earned a massive victory on the road in double overtime, and now the pressure shifts to Dallas.
Many were picking the Stars to come out ahead in Game 1, but the Oilers jumped out to a multi-goal lead, and closed things out in overtime.
The Stars had home ice advantage and were able to ice the matchups they wanted to, but still couldn’t win. Here’s how they chose to counter the Oilers with that advantage, and what they’ll likely do in Game 2 tonight.
Hyman-McDavid-Nugent-Hopkins line
The Oilers’ top line centered by Connor McDavid played 15:16 together at 5v5 in Game 1.
| CF% | SCF% | HDCF% | xGF% | OZS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54.84 | 53.85 | 50.00 | 37.44 | 100 |
The McDavid line did a very good job against the Stars, dominating shot attempts and scoring chances when they were on the ice. However, they didn’t come out ahead in expected goals which means they gave up a lot more prime opportunities than they generated. Also of note, this line started 100% of their shifts in the offensive zone.
This line was countered almost exclusively by Chris Tanev and Esa Lindell. It makes a ton of sense as this is Dallas’ top defensive unit. Based on how things went in Game 1, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Stars counter with this same defensive unit once again.
This is good news for the Oilers because despite the Lindell-Tanev pairing being very good defensively, the Oilers were able to generate a lot of chances against them, and ended the game with a 2-1 edge in 5v5 goals.
Holloway-Draisaitl-Kane line
The Oilers’ second line centered by Leon Draisaitl played 15:19 together at 5v5 in Game 1.
| CF% | SCF% | HDCF% | xGF% | OZS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56.25 | 56.25 | 80.00 | 66.31 | 50 |
This was the Oilers best line in Game 1, by far. They absolutely dominated all offensive possession and scoring chance metrics, including 80% of the high danger chances and a whopping 66% of the expected goals. And, this is all with just 50% offensive zone starts.
They didn’t score any goals at 5v5 but also didn’t allow any, and with the way they played it’s only a matter of time before this line scores a few past Jake Oettinger.
The Stars countered the Draisaitl line with the pairing of Thomas Harley and Miro Heiskanen. It’s safe to say this pairing did not do a great job, and the Stars may look to change things up here in Game 2. However, the Stars don’t have a ton of options here as they only really played five defensemen in Game 1, so short of swapping this pair with the Lindell-Tanev pair, they’re a bit hooped.
I can’t see them moving Tanev off McDavid, so this is definitely a line to watch in Game 2. They could absolutely feast on the Stars’ defense and score multiple goals.
Foegele-McLeod-Ryan line
The Oilers’ third line centered by Ryan McLeod played 7:25 together at 5v5 in Game 1.
| CF% | SCF% | HDCF% | xGF% | OZS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61.11 | 50.00 | 42.86 | 40.51 | 33.33 |
This line was mostly started in the defensive zone, only getting one offensive zone start the entire game at 5v5. They did a great job driving shot attempts, and held their own when it comes to scoring chances. However, they lost the high danger chance and expected goals battle, and lost the goals battle 1-0.
This line wasn’t the Oilers’ best in Game 1, but when you look at how they kept the puck in the Stars’ end and kept Oettinger busy, you can’t really complain.
This line was countered almost exclusively by the pairing of Ryan Suter and former Oiler Alex Petrovic. It’s likely that the Stars keep this matchup intact as it was mostly a stalemate, and that’s good enough for a third line defense counter.
Janmark-Carrick-Brown line
The Oilers’ fourth line centered by Sam Carrick played 9:28 together at 5v5 in Game 1.
| CF% | SCF% | HDCF% | xGF% | OZS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57.14 | 50.00 | 100.00 | 60.04 | 60 |
It’s worth noting that this line played more at 5v5 than the third line, and for good reason. This line was excellent across the board, winning the shot attempts battle, dominating the high danger chances and expected goals battles, and started 60% of their shifts in the offensive zone.
This line was mostly countered with an even helping of the Harley-Heiskanen and Suter-Petrovic pairings. Safe to say that neither of these pairings worked all that well against this line, but the goal differential was even and the Stars are probably happy enough with that.
They probably won’t make a change here for Game 2, but this line does have a good opportunity to get on the board, and at the very least take a bite out of the Harley-Heiskanen pairing.
X-factor heading into Game 2
The Draisaitl line is absolutely the Oilers’ x-factor heading into Game 2. The McDavid line did come out ahead in the goal differential column in Game 2, but the Draisaitl line could do some serious damage in Game 2. They’re dominating the Stars defense pairing of Harley and Heiskanen, and this is definitely the line to watch in tonight’s game.
