Welcome back. I wrote an article before the season began saying I thought we’d be a great regular season team with an A+ offence, a B defence, and a B- goalie situation. I said we should easily hit 100 points. I said Evan Bouchard would be in the 60 to 70 point range. I said Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway will be key this season. I also wrote that our coach is excellent and nothing to worry about.
Well, some of that was reasonably close and some was way off. Our coach got fired pretty early on. Bouchard exceeded 70 points and should hit 80. Our offence was great but not an A+. I was banking on Connor Brown and Holloway making big impacts. I was wrong. Of course, I didn’t think Zach Hyman would be this good this season. Our defence was indeed a B. We were blessed with amazing health and the emergence of Bouchard. It could be argued that Mattias Ekholm was our best D overall and he was exceptional. Our goaltending ended as an A- eventually. Stuart Skinner had a very good season and Calvin Pickard was an excellent backup.
Edmonton changed their fate
Then I wrote another article at American Thanksgiving saying we won’t make the playoffs. That article aged awfully! Since that article we went on a tear and we were easily one of the best teams in the NHL from American Thanksgiving to today. It was as good a run as I can remember in decades for the Oilers. I’ve never been so happy to be wrong.
One thing that was consistent about those articles? I kept insisting that our defence is not enough. I also kept insisting to fire GM Ken Holland. Fast forward and Holland is still here and we have the exact same D core heading into the playoffs.
Our trade deadline saw us acquire three similar type players. All play big with heart. However, all three are actually small and our opponents have large players that play with heart. I cannot see any of them making big playoff impacts unfortunately. Another thing they had in common? They really didn’t address any of our glaring playoff needs. Heading into the playoffs, let’s look at our positions.
What’s going right for the team
Our D benefitted from tremendous health. Almost no man games lost. Broberg didn’t make it and went to the AHL eventually (Holland has almost no drafted players in the lineup after five years of drafting). He’s been excellent there but that should be expected from a soon to be 23-year-old first rounder. Our left side remains very good. Our right side continues to be poor. We have Bouchard who is as good a offensive Dman as there is. He has been exceptional. However, he will never be confused for Rod Langway on the defending end.
We have Cody Ceci who is terribly miscast as a heavy minute eating top-four RD. Excellent player but not in a position to succeed. We have Vincent Desharnais who is an amazing story and a good fifth or sixth defenceman but he should not be in the top four for playoff games. We have Troy Stecher also taking shifts in the top four on the right side.
None of Ceci, Desharnais, or Stecher should be in a top four role in a playoff series against strong Western Conference opponents. We have three top four Dmen. None of them at a Norris level. Our opponents have Quinn Hughes, Miro Heiskanen, Cale Makar, Josh Morissey, Alex Pietrangelo, Drew Doughty, and Roman Josi. Most of them have a complete top four. I honestly don’t believe any of Stecher, Ceci, or Desharnais would crack a top-four role on any other Western Conference playoff team. Grade C+
Our goaltending exceeded expectations. It is fair to be optimistic about Skinner heading into the playoffs. He did not have a good playoffs last year. He did have a great regular season last year and he’s been great for a very long time now in his second season (after a poor start). Pickard has been great in relief (something I didn’t expect to type). Jack Campbell has been excellent in the AHL and may get a call as the third goalie for the playoff run. To his credit, he has earned that despite me believing an off season buyout is the way to go. Grade B+
Our forwards are still the cream of the crop. Some nice surprises included Warren Foegele with a very solid season. Zach Hyman exceeded everyone’s expectations. Ryan McLeod has progressed very nicely. Connor Brown has shown signs of life lately. Cory Perry is a great addition and he may end up being a great piece in the playoffs. I like this forward core. If we have any success, it will be because of them. We are built top heavy but it is a very good forward core. Grade A
What needs to go right in the playoffs?
As of now, our playoff opponent is not known. Could be the Lose Angeles Kings. Could be the Vegas Golden Knights. The Knights are in a wild card spot but will have a $100M roster once the playoffs kick in. The team that got them into a wild card spot and the team entering Round 1 don’t have much in common. It seems very likely we finish second in the Pacific. We are year fivd of our GM (who is hopefully gone after this season). Our two biggest players do have contracts coming up in the next few years. Our prospect pool is very low. We are definitely in “win now” mode.
For playoff success we need several things to hit. First, our forwards need to play to their abilities. No miracles needed. Just play their game and that is more than enough. Our D needs to have no injuries. Any injury to Ekholm, Bouchard, or Nurse and our lineup falls apart fast. The D also have to play better than the sum of their parts. Our goaltending needs Skinner to play like he has for about 90% of his NHL career. He is an excellent goalie and hopefully he learned from the playoffs last season. It is reasonable to expect .910 or higher and that should be enough.
Forwards need to score a lot and be responsible defensively. They are capable of that. Skinner needs to be around .910 and he’s capable of that. Our D needs to avoid injury and play better than they are. Definitely our Achilles heel.
The Wild Wild West
The other problem? The West is murderer’s row. No weak team and some absolute beautiful teams:
Dallas have no real weaknesses. Strong goalie, Norris calibre D, and a deep forward core. A very well built team.
Vancouver is very well built. They may run into issues with a lack of experience, Thatcher Demko struggling or that their top two D (Hughes and Filip Hronek) are both smaller. However, they are also an extremely well built team and had no problems beating us all four times this season.
The Colorado Avalanche have a beautiful team with a great forward and D core. Alexandar Georgiev may be the achilles heel for them but (Cale) Mak(ar) plus (Nathan) Mack(innon) is a beautiful combo. They have won it before as well.
Knights biggest opponent is chemistry. They are trying to integrate all their new stars with their existing stars in short order. If they get Noah Hannifan, Joel Mantha, and Tomas Hertl rolling with a returning Mark Stone then they have as stacked a roster as anyone! Goaltending injuries may be their achilles.
The Winnipeg Jets have a beautiful team from top to bottom. No real weaknesses and a star goalie. They don’t have the sizzle of others and that is exactly what makes them terrifying.
Nashville Predators are similar with a well built team and a Norris Dman in Josi and a Norris calibre goalie in Juuse Saros. Not flashy but no real weaknesses.
The Kings are a very well built team. Goaltending may be an issue for them. Most likely the Oilers’ most ideal opponent. However, beating them three times in a row would be very difficult.
I could legitimately see any of the eight teams in the West winning the West and going to the finals. That includes the Oilers. I could also see all four first-round series going to seven games. Four very good teams will be going home in about two weeks. Hope dies last but I would’ve felt more confident with a better trade deadline from Holland.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
