Edmonton Oiler fans are familiar with the recent iterations of the Los Angeles Kings, as the Oilers have earned wins over the Kings in the first round in each of the past two seasons. Both series were hard fought affairs, and though the Oilers emerged victorious both times, neither was comfortable for fans. There is a legitimate case that both teams have improved since last season, as both are among the league’s best by expected goal share.
The Kings have a unique team build, represented by a commitment to their stylistic beliefs and concept. Without a point per game scorer, the Kings play a tight defensive system with an enthusiasm for physicality. Famously, the Kings play something of a 1-3-1 in transition defence, meaning two forwards are expected to be in a deep defensive posture. Often this presents as three Kings holding the defensive blueline to force dump-ins with a defenceman deeper to get ahead of retrievals.
Gaining the Kings blueline would be just one of the many areas that are highly contested in the potential playoff matchup between the Kings and Oilers. Let’s take a deeper look at the Kings and what challenges they might present should the teams meet in the first round for a third season in a row.
Hockeyviz heat maps
A consistent forward group
Projected lines
Byfield — Kopitar — Kempe
Moore — Danault — Fiala
Laferriere — Dubois — Arvidsson
Lewis — Lizotte — Kaliyev
Extras: Grundstrom, Turcotte
Consistent from last season, the Kings are defined by a rare depth of elite defensive centres. While neither Anze Kopitar nor Phillip Danault will win the Selke Trophy this season, both are still legitimate candidates for the honour. Quite frankly there might not be a better checking duo at the centre position league wide. Pierre-Luc Dubois is often criticised for his commitment to bring his best to every game, but within the confines of a playoff round, or even on a night to night basis, Dubois bringing his best gives the Kings an overwhelming trio down the middle. Sure, the contract as a whole might not age well, but that will hardly matter during these upcoming playoffs.
Much of the lineup returns from last season, with a number of good wingers to fill out the lineup. Adrian Kempe is usually with Kopitar, while Trevor Moore is usually with Danault. Both are good top six level players who have a lot of chemistry with their centres. Kevin Fiala has been paired with Dubois or Danault, and this duo might be just as effective. Viktor Arvidsson would be considered just as good in full health, as the winger was re-injured in late February after just four games back from a long absence. Carl Grundstrom, another Swedish winger with a blend of snarl and offence, is also injured.
The biggest reason for hope, from a Kings perspective, is internal development. Quinton Byfield has authored a true breakout campaign, quickly becoming one of if not the Kings most dangerous attacker. With size, power, speed, and skill, Byfield has rounded out his skillset since being drafted. Like all the league’s better players, Byfield can impact the game in multiple areas. Playmaking off the walls and down low, rush offence as a shooter or passer, will and skill at the net front, forechecking presence, and a deft stick checking ability all come to mind.
Arthur Kaliyev is not as well rounded, but has a dangerous shot. Defenders will need to be aware of Kaliyev from range during the Kings in zone offence. Mattias Laferriere has provided a bit more substance, but less flash. Blake Lizotte might be worthy of more minutes, stuck behind a crowded centre position. Alex Turcotte is getting his first extended look in the NHL without much fanfare. The Kings seem to bring their prospects along slowly, perhaps thanks to their rigid style of play that requires maturity and defensive focus.
Strong defensive pairings
Projected pairings
Anderson — Doughty
Gavrikov — Roy
Englund — Spence
Extras: Moverare, Clarke
Speaking of stylistic rigidity, the Kings have a fascinating commitment to personnel on the blueline. The Kings have right shot defencemen who demand primary puck moving responsibilities, all paired with physical left shot defencemen, tasked with the heavy lifting.
Matt Roy is among the more under-appreciated defencemen in the league. Authoring another stellar season, Roy may not have the offensive production or draft pedigree to capture attention outside the Kings fanbase, but routinely helps his team control play thanks to smooth skating, smart positioning, and deft passing. Roy is often paired with Vladislav Gavrikov, a long defensive defenseman who uses a good active stick and subtle body positioning to be a very effective checker. The two have dominated possession as a pairing.
The third pair is occupied by either Jordan Spence or Brandt Clarke, both of whom are young players with a lot of high level offensive tools. Clarke is younger, and still behind Spence on the depth chart at full health, but has a much higher perceived ceiling. It might still be too early for Clarke to make a huge impact, but the potential to do so in the next season or two is real. For now, Spence is the clear option, and is improving in his own right. Spence has the puck handling and skating to be a dangerous option with the puck, and has continued to impress as a trustworthy defender.
Bucking the trend is Drew Doughty, one of the best defencemen of the era, an undoubtedly unique talent. Though some less than stellar play through some re-tooling seasons have dimmed the hype surrounding Doughty, his metrics have rebounded as the team has, perhaps insightful to the nature of both psychology and the current statistical trends in player evaluation. Don’t be fooled, Doughty is still a force and clearly the Kings top blueliner.
The offensive lean to the Kings right side affects their in-zone attack. The Kings generate shots from the top of the zone on the right side, and lower in the zone from the left. The Kings right shot defencemen will be aggressive in attacking the seam, looking for cross ice passes from right to left. We might see teams counter by cheating the weak side winger, their right winger, further off of their point man to take away this seam.
Mikey Anderson is often paired with Doughty. Anderson has definitely benefited from this deployment, but is a quality defender in his own right. Though his game is a bit more well rounded than the pure defensive stylings of Gavrikov, Anderson has an edge that has caused the Oilers problems in years past.
An average power play
Middling is the word that comes to mind, at least from a season long view, as the Kings sit at about 16th in raw power play efficiency. This might even be framed as an accomplishment though, as the Kings don’t have a point per game player this season. Many of the league’s best power plays rely on Art Ross contenders, something that the Kings lack.
With that being said the Kings power play should not be underestimated in a playoff series. Their simple team oriented style might translate into the playoffs well, perhaps allowing the Kings to take what is available to them. The power play will happily operate from lower in the zone, even from behind the goal line, flipping the defensive coverage and potentially opening up holes therein. The Kings will funnel pucks to the middle and to the net, and are happy to crash the net for rebounds.
One of the best penalty kills
As might be expected, the Kings have one of the best penalty killing units in the league. This presents an intriguing strength-on-strength battle between the Kings penalty kill and the Oilers power play. A big part of why the playoff series of the past two seasons between these teams has been so close is because of the Kings ability to hold their own in the special teams battle. The biggest change in this respect might be the Oilers improved penalty kill, another reason the Oilers play a skater short is so important.
A mixed bag of goaltending
The Kings are clearly employing a strategy of volume, aiming for capable and cost effective netminders. This might be the biggest gripe prognosticators have with the Kings, a lack of goaltending upside. In truth, the Kings likely have the least desirable situation in net among the Western Conference’s playoff teams.
With that said, the Kings have the defensive capabilities to get the most out of their goaltenders, and their depth chart does have substance despite a lack of style. Last season Jonas Korpisalo played quite well behind the defensive Kings, even matched up against the Oilers prolific attack. Korpisalo is finding it much harder to have such an effect behind an porous Ottawa Senators team this season. Just the same, journeyman Cam Talbot has proven that he can provide stability behind a good defensive team.
David Rittich has a far less impressive resume, but has had a good bounce back season behind the Kings defensive structure. Phoenix Copley might have been able to push Talbot for the starting job, but is out for the season after knee surgery. Talbot can definitely be good enough to give the Kings a chance, but might not have as much game stealing upside as Korpisalo offered last playoff.
History versus the Oilers
The Kings will not be an easy opponent for the Oilers, though hypothetically betting odds would surely favour the Oilers for a third straight playoff series win. With their strong checking centres and formidable penalty kill, the Kings present something of a foil to the Oilers greatest strengths as a team.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will face the full force of the Kings disruptive defensive focus and efforts. The Kings will need to frustrate the Oilers superstar forwards, holding them off the scoresheet as much as possible while impeding their movements on the ice and skirmishing after whistles. While there will be many infractions left unpenalized, the Oilers will have to stay patient and composed, and get some luck to capitalise on rare opportunities.
The Oilers certainly possess the edge on offence, as they have in seasons past. With that being said, the Oilers are a more well rounded team this season, their weaknesses improved. The Oilers defensive game at even strength and on the penalty kill is not far off the Kings sterling play. Another change for a potential matchup this season is that the Oilers have a decided edge in net.
Even with the Oilers favoured, fans should be expecting a series that is closer than ideal. If Dubois can be his more engaged self, and Byfield blossoms into a higher level of play, both of which are possible, the Kings will have a chance. The expectation for Oilers fans should be some overtime games, a lot of stress, frustration with the Kings wily defending, and a series win in six games.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
