With the dust settled after the trade deadline, teams across the NHL have solidified their lineups. There are a number of games remaining, which will be important in different ways for each team, re-building, re-tooling, or reaching for a Stanley Cup. In truth, there might only be one Canadian fanbase that is truly upset by their team’s performance, as most Canadian teams have taken steps in the right direction over the season as a whole.
There are four legitimate contenders across the country, all of whom sit within the NHL’s top 10 teams overall. As a group, these four teams offer a variety of strengths and experience, though they do share a significant weakness. Penalty killing efficiency is a key metric that correlates to playoff success, and should be an area of concern across the country’s contenders. With that in mind, let’s take a look at how the group of seven stacks up in this month’s post trade deadline edition of the Canadian Power Rankings.
Ottawa Senators
It’s been a tough month for Ottawa Senators fans, as the team has plummeted down the standings, failing to build any positive momentum. To make matters worse Josh Norris has suffered another shoulder injury and is out long term. Losing Norris, who had finally started to show consistency after a previous extended injury absence, is a huge blow to morale and to the lineup quality itself.
The overall team offence is good, but the Senators have continued to spin their tires due to poor defending. They have cycled through a number of goalies in recent seasons, all of whom have performed better elsewhere. The Senators poor penalty killing certainly exacerbates this issue, but the team’s struggles on the power play are indicative of the prevailing widespread issue.
The Senators are clearly playing worse than the sum of their parts. More radical change is necessary, as the selling off of players at the deadline must be replaced with adding to the team, or perhaps even shaking up the core itself. The Sens boast several notable and legitimate young talents, but their group is still significantly deficient in certain capacities.
A high draft pick will be the focus of the team’s improvement efforts, though the player selected is highly unlikely to greatly impact the NHL team’s performance next season. Instead, the Senators should be determined to nail their top selection, upgrading the potential upside of their group with a future star regardless of position.
Projecting towards next season, the Senators have immediate needs to address. With Norris looking less likely to be the reliable two way centre he should be, the Sens will need reinforcements at centre ice. Staying with the forward group, a greater commitment to a defensive identity is required, perhaps even a reliable shutdown line that can help set the team’s identity. Through internal development and free agency combined the Sens should be looking to add at least two quality middle-six forwards before next season, if not more.
The more puzzling roster issue lies on the blueline. The Senators boast a formidable left side, between Thomas Chabot, Jakob Chychrun, and Jake Sanderson. Despite this the group has struggled, largely due to the uneven dispersal of quality versus the right side. Artem Zub is a solid top four option on the right, but even if Jacob Bernard-Docker is able to continue his growth next season the Senators will need to add here. At the very least the Sens need to find an upgrade in a penalty kill specialist who can play support to superior partner at even strength. Travis Hamonic possesses the profile, but clearly the team needs more support than he can be expected to provide.
The good news is that, with their deadline asset selling in the past, new GM Steve Staios will have his opportunity to begin shaping the Senators in his vision this offseason. Clearly a new direction is required, as the team has toiled in mediocrity while finding ways to avoid adding high end draft picks to their pipeline.
Montreal Canadiens
The rebuilding Montreal Canadiens might rank higher in an overall happiness index, as the team has seen some significant positive developments. The Habs have continued to stockpile futures while seeing promising steps forward from key young players and prospects. Headlining is the recent play of Juraj Slafkovsky, who is quickly blossoming into a legitimate top-six forward. While the burden of being the first overall pick and the fervent scrutiny of his surprise selection as such have cast a harsh light on Slafkovsky’s early career, he is looking more and more like a great choice for the Habs.
A common theme throughout the league, the Habs greatest weakness going forward might be at right defence. Of course, David Reinbacher is en route as an option here. The Habs do have a plethora of young left shot defencemen, with Kaiden Guhle, Arber Xhekaj, and Jayden Struble finding their way as NHLers, as well as Lane Hutson having the potential to be an impactful NHLer sooner rather than later.
Up front the Canadiens have other young players beginning to bubble up to the NHL lineup. Joshua Roy has debuted and looks to be a strong bet to make the team outright next season. While a healthy Kirby Dach would certainly help, the Habs will need more of their prospects to emerge as legitimate NHLers to take their next step as a team. There does appear to be a relatively strong core group, but landing a high end forward at the top of this year’s draft will go a long way towards adding excitement and intrigue.
The goaltending situation remains a plus, as Sam Montembeault and Cayden Primeau have continued to prove themselves. Top prospect Hayden Fowler is certainly worth mentioning, impressing each season. Goaltending does not seem to be an issue as the Canadiens look to transform into a perennial contender.
Overall it will still take some time until the Habs are achieving those dreams, but the formations of a strong team are appearing. Their respectable results to this point are meaningful, as young players need a platform that begets winning habits. The goal should be for an upstart iteration of the team to valiantly push for a playoff spot either next season or two seasons from now.
Calgary Flames
Throughout most of his tenure as GM, Craig Conroy has been criticised for his trade returns. In hindsight, given the buyer’s market that was this season’s trade deadline, the Calgary Flames did well to add draft capital, defence prospects, and promote from within. With an abundance of pending free agents to make decisions on, Conroy has navigated these troubled waters, reshaping the organisational depth chart. Cynically, this retooling effort might align with a new arena, but there have been some invigorating developments amidst that offer hope.
First, the Flames seem to be getting more, or at least just as much, from less, as the team hasn’t imploded despite the subtractions from the lineup. Nazem Kadri is playing his best hockey as a Flame, perhaps even of his career. Jonathan Huberdeau has shown some signs of life. Oliver Kylington has returned and looks to be picking up his former quality. Blake Coleman and Mikael Backlund remain exemplary pillars of the lineup. Mackenzie Weegar is having a bounce back offensive season.
Of course, the biggest positives come from younger players, as Connor Zary and Yegor Sharangovich have produced as a top-six forwards, and Martin Pospisil has impressed in all ways except discipline. From a larger perspective, the Flames do have some young forwards in their system who might be able to have an impact over the next two seasons. Jacob Pelletier and Matthew Coronato stand out as the most imminent, but are hardly alone on this timeline. Reinforcements are on the way, though adding a volume of draft choices to the system in June is still crucial.
With two high level right shot defencemen, Weegar and Rasmus Andersson, the Flames have a lot to work with on the blueline. Kylington helps on the left side, but outside of that the Flames system lacks blueline depth and upside. With better health Jeremie Poirier might be ready to make the NHL team next season, but it is clear that the team chose to target defence prospects they believed in during their roster overhaul. With a few years of development between them, Artem Grushnikov and Hunter Bruczewitz headline an influx of relevant blueline prospects to the system. Nikita Okhotyuk will have a chance to clamp down a regular spot in the NHL lineup.
Presumably, the Flames have a chance at retooling quick enough that veteran players like Kadri, Huberdeau, and Weegar are still contributing as the team comes into form. It is a narrow path, no doubt, and might require more than just draft wins to achieve. A shrewd trade or signing will still be crucial to hitting the retool in stride. While the amount of draft capital received might not be as gaudy as fans hoped, Conroy seems to have positioned the organisation in a better spot long term.
Toronto Maple Leafs
GM Brad Treliving clearly targeted the blueline in his efforts to reshape the Toronto Maple Leafs roster. While this has been an area of concern throughout the Brendan Shanahan era, the Leafs have addressed their perceived lack of length and strength to a far greater degree than in season’s past. Though the group is far from perfect, lacking a Norris worthy candidate and even legitimate top four options, it is more well rounded thanks to adding such a strong old school flavour.
This is truly the biggest hurdle for the organisation to overcome, building out an elite blueline. Absent the top pairing right shot defensive option that the team truly lacks, adding Simon Benoit, Ilya Lyubushkin and Joel Edmundson throughout the season changes the complexion of the group as a whole. Jake McCabe’s physicality is slotted more flatteringly, as is T.J. Brodie’s more peaceful brand of defence. Timothy Liljegren and Morgan Rielly should be less taxed defensively.
The Leafs might be deeper up front as well, having moved John Tavares to the third line. There is hope that Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi will be at their best in the playoffs. Calle Jarnkrok is a great glue player. Bobby McMann joins Matthew Knies and Pontus Holmberg as budding contributors. Depth might be true of the goaltending as well, as Ilya Samsonov, Joseph Woll, and Martin Jones are all at least reasonable options.
Suffering their most lopsided playoffs series defeat certainly cooled any praise their first playoff series win provided. In the bigger picture, the Leafs won’t have a chance to change the true core of the team until Tavares’ contract expires. If the Leafs are able to re-sign Tavares to a much more modest deal the team will finally have enough cap space to target a significant upgrade to their roster.
Perhaps a swing on a young player or prospect in the offseason can help the Leafs find a long term solution to their unbalanced blueline. For now the team will be trying to build some synergy in their lineup.
Vancouver Canucks
In true Jim Rutherford style the Vancouver Canucks got most of their work done early, adding Nikita Zadorov and Elias Lindholm earlier this season. The team has stumbled of late. Although this does not endanger their playoff hopes it might be the Canucks shooting luck coming back down to earth. The fear is that the team has already performed its best, that regression will see the Canucks backslide from their Presidents Trophy pace.
The Canucks don’t control play at the level that their record would suggest, though it would be foolish to completely dismiss their success. The team has a lot of high end talent as well as snarl, elite players at every position, and have shown signs of locking into a cohesive defensive structure. The Canucks are top five in both goals for per game and goals against per game.
Regardless of their playoff outcome this has been a good year for Canucks fans. The team has managed to climb out of the stagnation that befell them. Rutherford and GM Patrik Allvin have led the team out of irrelevance enough to convince Elias Pettersson to re-sign. Brock Boeser has returned to form as an elite goal scorer. Quinn Hughes has blossomed as the team’s captain. Though the Canucks have employed these stars, the team’s struggles made the long term vision of the core more muddled. Finally building a strong enough roster around them has the Canucks stars showing signs of their true capabilities.
The forward group is quite deep. The blueline is not perfect, but Filip Hronek headlines the group behind Hughes. Certainly the group would look a lot better were Carson Soucy healthy, but the Canucks have managed to stay afloat defensively in part thanks to their outstanding goaltending. Thatcher Demko is often excluded from best-on-best team USA mock lineups, but should not be counted out for such a role.
Considering the famed “Presidents Trophy curse” it might be for the best that the Canucks face some adversity at this point. More important is that the team continues to improve heading into the playoffs, showing that their best is yet to come. Ultimately, winning the division won’t guarantee a favourable matchup for the Canucks, as seven teams in the conference legitimately expect to win at least a playoff round. The Canucks are not devoid of playoff experience, having won a round in the 2019–20 season, but are not likely to be favoured against programs with more recent experience. With the Vegas Golden Knights surreptitiously sitting in a wildcard spot no one should feel safe.
Winnipeg Jets
Of the four legitimate Cup contenders based in Canada the Winnipeg Jets are by far the strongest defensive team. This tends to carry over into the playoffs more consistently than offence. Naturally, Connor Hellebuyck is a boon to the Jets ability to keep the puck out of their net, and another Vezina Trophy might well be on the horizon. The one issue in this area comes in the form of a middling penalty kill efficiency, the Jets sitting at roughly 77%. While this is concerning there is still time for the Jets to perform up to their capabilities here.
While Colin Miller might be able to help in this regard, most of the Jets deadline buying surrounded bolstering their offence. Both Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli are legitimate 30-goal scorers, adding a lot to the lineup. This might help the Jets woeful power play, sitting 24th in the league at roughly 18%.
The team’s strong record in spit of these special teams issues speaks to their even strength play. The Jets have a far deeper team than in recent years, and will be a far more capable playoff opponent than they were last season. Their additions help in this regard, but so too do their offseason moves, adding Gabe Vilardi and Alex Iafallo, as well as internal development, as Cole Perfetti continues to blossom. The issue with Vilardi has always been about availability rather than ability, and the Jets are dramatically improved with him in the lineup. The Jets are robust at forward.
The key to the Jets success has been how much synergy exists between coach Rick Bowness and the blueline. Though not devoid of skill, the Jets defence group offers a lot of physicality that has excelled in Bowness’ simple system. The Jets blueline might leave something to be desired on paper, lacking flashy names and high end offensive talent, but the group is very effective in reality.
The Jets have been on a tear, climbing up the standings, even fighting with the Canucks for the second best record in the league behind the Florida Panthers, led by former coach Paul Maurice. Like the Canucks the Jets have not won a playoff series in a few years, but do have some experience doing so with some of their core players.
Given how last season ended, a divided locker room being called out publicly by their coach facing an uncertain future, as Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele were pending UFAs, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has managed to renew the franchise. The second longest tenured GM behind Doug Armstrong of the St. Louis Blues, Cheveldayoff has silenced his doubters with this turnaround.
Like all the Western Conference teams the Jets are likely to face a daunting opponent in the first round, though the situation may be even less favourable within the Central Division. With the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars among the best teams in the league, one of the division’s top teams is guaranteed to meet their end in the first round.
Edmonton Oilers
Quite simply the Edmonton Oilers have it all. From elite talent to proven playoff performers, from depth to special teams excellence, the Oilers check nearly every box since the early season coaching change. The Oilers have a number of forwards with skill and speed, as well as a blueline filled with equal parts size and skill.
That is not to say that the Oilers are a team without their share of questions. As Stuart Skinner continues to assert himself as a goalie capable of consistently delivering top 10 results there is still some doubt cast upon him. Despite this, Skinner continues his nearly five-year upward trend, impressing and surpassing each challenge along the way. Some are nervous about the team’s goaltending beyond their starter, yet nearly every team would be faced with a similar crisis without their top option in net.
Perhaps the true fulcrum lies within the Oilers penalty killing, unable to surpass the 80% threshold. While the numbers post coaching change are more favourable, the truth is that the Oilers still need to prove themselves exceptional in this area to achieve their ultimate goal. Fans might be unsatisfied with GM Ken Holland’s ability to upgrade the team, the blueline has slowly morphed into an area of strength. The top pairing of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard is among the best in the league, while Darnell Nurse is unquestionably a legitimate top four option. The criticism might lie in the lack of a fourth legitimate top four option, but Brett Kulak and Vincent Desharnais have both been worthy of such an appraisal.
The final question might lie within the forward group, as some feel the top six is a player or two short of being complete. Evander Kane might struggle in expected goal metrics, the power forward is still a force, scoring at a 25-goal pace while providing snarl and physicality. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele have dominated possession metrics, and might even be worthy to be on Leon Draisaitl’s wings through the postseason. Corey Perry has fit in well with the likes of Mattias Janmark and Derek Ryan as reliable bottom-six players, though Perry might have some ability to play up the lineup. The true upgrade comes with Adam Henrique, who should be able to help tie all these pieces together, solidifying the middle six.
The Oilers have the most recent and most relevant playoff experience of the group as well. With some games in hand, the Oilers will have a chance to continue their way up the standings, though the team will have a dense concentration of games the rest of the way. Fatigue and attrition will play a factor, but the Oilers have the most momentum headed into the final stretch of the regular season.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
