We’ve all seen plenty about what the Edmonton Oilers would like to add to their roster this trade deadline. Let’s take a look at what they could realistically give up.
Draft picks available
The first option is draft picks, and Edmonton isn’t digging in the trash for draft picks. They still have their first, second, fifth, and two sixths in 2024, first to seventh minus second in 2025, and the full slateful in 2026. Until recently it was the rumour that Ken Holland was wary of giving up first round picks, a foolish policy for the current Oilers team in my opinion. The very sobering truth is that Connor McDavid only has two more years on contract, and Leon Draisaitl only one more. It may very well be the case that they both re-sign, and since if you suggested otherwise at Rogers Place you’d receive a free attitude adjustment, for now I’ll just say that they are an unknown. For that reason, you have to go all in now. One thing that is sure is that winning a Stanley Cup is a powerful source of motivation to stay with the team that you won it with. Who knew the way to McDavid’s heart would be through a Stanley Cup?
Now first round picks go a long way, but the Oilers have another problem, and it’s that accursed salary cap. According to CapFriendly they only have about half a million dollars left to play with. This means that for any trade they make they either need to send someone back the other way or have their trade partner retain some of the players salary or both.
Evander Kane
The immediate attraction here is that Evander Kane makes over $5M, so trading him relieves a lot of cap pressure. Arguably the biggest fish the Oilers are trying to catch is Jake Guentzel, who is currently hurt but at last assessment was deemed ready around March 14. Guentzel is a difficult player to find precedent in trade for as he is an 85-point player on a $6M contract, his next deal is likely to be for $2M more.
The other problem is as mentioned before, the Oilers don’t have the cap space for Guentzel. When Artemi Panarin was traded to the Blue Jackets in 2017, he was, points-wise, a similar player to Guentzel. That deal was Panarin, Tyler Motte, and a sixth round in exchange for Brandon Saad, Anton Forsberg, and a fifth round. An analogous trade for the Oilers would likely see Zach Hyman or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins go straight across for Guentzel, something I would be shocked to see them do. Kane a second, third, and a mid-range prospect for Guentzel is perhaps a possibility. Of course, you’d love to keep Kane but giving him up does free up most of the cap space for Guentzel. The problem is that if you don’t give up a player to get Guentzel, you have to ask the Pittsburgh Penguins to retain some of his contract, in which case there is no way you are getting him for less than at least two first rounders.
Pavel Buchnevich is a very similar situation, but carries a smaller contract and a slightly smaller point total. St. Louis still has a long shot at the playoffs, may not be willing to sell, and if they do they will likely want a first in return but you could maybe use Kane in a deal with the Blues.
Warren Foegele
So far as rostered players go, Warren Foegele is probably the biggest trade piece that seems more realistic to be moved. He is only two points away from a career year and has showed this year that he can put points up when playing with high calibre players, his trade value might never be higher than it is now.
Mathieu Joseph, a similar player to Foegele in points was traded with a fourth round pick to the Tampa Bay Lightning for Nicholas Paul. Yet or Sharangovich and a third for Tyler Toffoli is another similar trade. This is exactly the kind of deal the Oilers should make. Package up Foegele with the 2024 second, or the 2025 third or fourth and ask for Anthony Duclair, Frank Vatrano, or anyone along those lines. Vatrano is having a great year and Duclair has had a near 60-point season in the past. They are significant upgrades to Foegele.
Cody Ceci
A very good contract to move, as his $3.25M cap hit is a little heavy and you can see the team doing well without him. Adam Larsson, who doesn’t score more points than Ceci, was once traded straight across for Taylor Hall, as all Edmonton fans remember well. At the time Larsson’s name carried more weight than Ceci’s does now though.
A better precedent to look at is Brian Dumoulin, Brandon Sutter, and a first for Jordan Staal which Carolina and Pittsburgh made happen in 2012. At the time, Sutter was still a promising young player with proof in NHL play. A posible play Edmonton could make would be Ceci, Ryan McLeod, and a first for Guentzel or Buchnevich. This can easily be dressed up or down by adding or substituting picks and exchanging Mcleod with Dylan Holloway or Philip Broberg—though I’m sure Edmonton is very hesitant to give up Broberg.
Brett Kulak could also be substituted in for Ceci here for nearly the same effect, although you don’t gain as much cap space using Kulak.
Another option here is to try for a goalie, with the Nashville Predators firmly in a playoff spot, Juuse Saros is well out of the question. Charlie Lindgren of the Washington Capitals is having a solid year and is on a $1.1M deal. A second and third for Lindgren, or maybe only one or the other seems reasonable and his contract can be made to fit with little reorganizing.
Since the most fun ideas are often illegal, is there any chance the Oilers can pull the wool over Gary Bettman’s eyes and execute the ol’ Tampa Bay dip and twirl? For those unfamiliar with the move, Nikita Kucherov spent all of the 2020–21 regular season on the LTIR and was declared, in a fit of timeliness, to be ready for action for the start of the playoffs, where he would go on to lead the league in points. For the Edmonton Oilers, it goes like this:
- Trade for Jake Guentzel quickly.
- Guentzel’s upper body injury, which is currently expected to be healed around March 14, is reassessed by the Oilers medics and found to be far more structurally unsound than before.
- Announce that he will be out for another month.
- Keep Guentzel on the LTIR until the start of playoffs at which point he plots every pass that McDavid sends his way.
- Win the Stanley Cup.
On a more realistic note, the Oilers do need to make a serious push this year and next and should not be afraid of giving up first round picks in order to do it.
All stats from CapFriendly.com
Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire
