Edmonton Oilers Prospect Roundup: How Xavier Bourgault’s unremarkable production can improve

Welcome to the TOR Edmonton Oilers prospect update. Each week, we’ll take a dive into how the Oilers’ prospects have done in their respective leagues. We have defined a prospect as a skater who has played fewer than 65 NHL games, and is younger than 25 years of age. All data is from EliteProspects. We also use an NHLe calculator built by Christian Roatis (@Croatis) which is used to estimate a player’s equivalent point total in the NHL based on how they are performing in their respective league. The calculator uses the difficulty of the given league combined with the ease at which a player puts up points to determine the NHLe.

Where is Bourgault headed?

This week the focus will be on Xavier Bourgault. The former Oilers first-round pick had a good start to the season and he was doing decent, with some consistency issues, in point production up until February. Now, it is after the AHL All-Star Break and there is a certain degree of concern in Bourgault’s play.

Last season was his rookie season and he did pretty well considering where he played during the season (mostly bottom six with power play time). He recorded over 30 points in less than 70 games so it wasn’t the worst offensive season for a first-round pick. But, this season, Bourgault had gotten a decent amount of time in the top six and third line with Ty Tullio. Unfortunately, he has only scored six goals and 10 assists in 42 games. In terms of pacing, he is only on pace for 30+ points again and that would be very disappointing. I believe there are certain factors that are coming into play here:

Colin Chaulk

I feel that Head Coach Colin Chaulk is not the right man for the job when it comes to developing prospects and especially when it comes to forwards. He has been giving a lot of ice time to players such as Seth Griffith and Greg McKegg. Yes he has done a great job with top prospect, Raphael Lavoie, but he hasn’t done much with the rest. If Xavier Bourgault, Ty Tullio, Matvey Petrov, and other forward prospects got more power play time and 5v5 ice time, I feel like their confidence will grow. Thus, it may lead to more success in development. I wonder if perhaps Jeff Jackson will look at changing the development system in the AHL this summer.

Playing with the right players

The second factor that I’ve noticed since Bourgault’s junior career is how he seems to thrive, grow confidence, and score when he is playing with skilled players. In the QMJHL, Bourgault was great offensively but he was not the driver of the scoring. He was the support with the driving player (Mavrik Bourque). This I believe is the main reason why Bourgault is not doing so well when it comes to scoring. He has not had as much ice time with players like Raphael Lavoie, Seth Griffith, and other AHL veterans. He has not even had top power play time. This is a cause for concern but it also brings in intrigue.

We know that the Oilers have two great drivers in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Bourgault also has lots of experience, throughout his hockey career, in being the supporter on an offensive line. So maybe his transfer into the NHL may be smoother than most since he won’t be relied upon as the driver? He has amazing hockey sense. We’ve seen it many times when it comes to forechecking, making smart passes and killing penalties. I feel like Bourgault just needs the opportunity. But, he will not get one if he does not put his best foot forward. Perhaps he won’t even get an opportunity with the Oilers. It may be in a different organization.

Forwards

Defencemen

Goaltenders