Since entering the league Connor McDavid’s dominance has led to a haul of trophies, answering every question that surrounded his well deserved hype as a prospect. In fact, there are few awards that have eluded his grasp, outside of those that McDavid is not eligible for. Naturally, one trophy remains absent, the most important of all, for Oilers fans and for McDavid himself: the Stanley Cup.
Still, as it comes to individual dominance, McDavid has surpassed and re-written what is thought of as possible in the NHL. The Art Ross Trophy, for most points, and the Hart Trophy, for league MVP, have been owned by McDavid through the first decade of his career. At one point there was a question of how many goals he could score, only for McDavid to score 64 goals, capturing the Rocket Richard Trophy in the process.
While there are other awards given out by the NHL each season, virtually every regular season award related to the individual greatness of a forward has been achieved by the Oilers captain. That is, except for one, the Selke Trophy, awarded to the best defensive forward.
Defence and championships
The award itself has had its own master, so to speak, with Patrice Bergeron hogging recognition from a generation of talented defensive forwards over his career. This is tongue in cheek, and just about the only bad thing that anyone has said about Bergeron. From that perspective alone, the Selke has been one of the hardest awards to win for any player over the last decade or so.
It should be noted that, unlike McDavid’s Rocket Richard chase, there is little to no speculation or fanfare, even expectations, in his Selke chase. While the discourse of the general public was enthralled by the possibility of McDavid rounding out his already otherworldly offensive game by becoming a top goal scorer, there seems to be little momentum, appetite, or interest in tracking his transformation into a dominant defensive force. Though this is hardly shocking, as offence is always more appealing to the eye, it is curious given that defence is the key to the Oilers team success, especially given the convergent primes of the all-time talents of McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
Ultimately, the Oilers dub themselves as a “Cup or bust” contender, though it’s difficult to imagine the core of the team being in any immediate danger of being dismantled by choice. Instead, this is more a reflection that the focus on winning a championship is the most important one of the Oilers season. Given that Draisaitl has also satiated any individual trophy lust with a haul that many Hall of Famers would dream of, the Oilers dynamic duo might well have little regard for these trophies. Perhaps “Cup or bust” is more indicative of this mindset than anything else.
The vision of achieving ultimate team success is forefront, and McDavid and Draisaitl have continued to lead the psyche of the team with selflessness. Through their careers, or at least through the Ken Holland era, the Oilers have continually improved in all aspects of the game, morphing from an underperforming roster with elite offensive talent, into a stout defensive team, limiting shots and chances against, as well as a strong penalty killing team under new Head Coach Kris Knoblauch.
By the numbers
While the shortcomings of seasons past have never come due to limitations on McDavid or Draisaitl’s individual contributions, both players continue to strive for more. Particularly in McDavid’s case, there has been a continued evolution to his defensive game over the past few seasons.
| Season | Player | GP | EVO | EVD | PPO | SHD | Off | Def | Pens | GAR |
| 19-20 | Connor McDavid | 64 | 12.9 | -6 | 7 | 0.1 | 19.9 | -5.9 | 1.9 | 15.9 |
| 20-21 | Connor McDavid | 56 | 15.8 | 1.2 | 6.2 | 0.1 | 22 | 1.3 | 3.9 | 27.2 |
| 21-22 | Connor McDavid | 80 | 14.3 | 0.7 | 5.1 | 0.5 | 19.4 | 1.2 | 7.3 | 27.9 |
| 22-23 | Connor McDavid | 82 | 13 | 0.8 | 11.1 | 0.6 | 24.1 | 1.3 | 6.3 | 31.7 |
| 23-24 | Connor McDavid | 43 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 10.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 17.2 |
We can see in these GAR (goals above replacement) numbers from Evolving Hockey that McDavid has continually improved his defensive impact.
In this JFresh player card we can see that McDavid ranks in the 89th percentile defensively, with a clear jump over his effectiveness here over the past two seasons.
| Season | Line | Minutes | xGoals For Per 60 Minutes | xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes | xGoals % |
| 23–24 | Hyman-McDavid-Nugent-Hopkins | 296.4 | 4.62 | 1.66 | 73.50% |
| 21–22 | Debrusk-Bergeron-Marchand | 283.3 | 3.92 | 1.61 | 70.90% |
| 20–21 | Tatar-Danault-Gallagher | 253.8 | 3.62 | 1.49 | 70.80% |
| 20–21 | Pacioretty-Stephenson-Stone | 221.5 | 4.09 | 1.81 | 69.30% |
| 22–23 | Mangiapane-Backlund-Coleman | 398.5 | 4.34 | 2.06 | 67.80% |
| 19–20 | Martinook-Wallmark-Svechnikov | 288.6 | 4.35 | 2.25 | 65.90% |
| 19–20 | Guentzel-Crosby-Simon | 203.7 | 3.48 | 1.8 | 65.90% |
| 20–21 | Hyman-Matthews-Marner | 291.6 | 3.93 | 2.06 | 65.60% |
| 20–21 | Duclair-Barkov-Verhaeghe | 237.9 | 3.51 | 1.84 | 65.60% |
| 20–21 | Lee-Barzal-Eberle | 227.6 | 3.32 | 1.74 | 65.60% |
| 20–21 | Thornton-Matthews-Marner | 211.9 | 3.03 | 1.61 | 65.20% |
| 21/22 | Bunting-Matthews-Marner | 554.7 | 3.87 | 2.09 | 65% |
In this chart using Moneypuck’s expected goals stats, we can see how dominant McDavid’s line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman has been, seen here against the best lines over the past five seasons. Not only does this line have the best expected goals share, but also has among the best expected goals against per 60 minutes, equaling results from lines involving Selke candidates from years past.
Together, all these stats present a compelling case for legitimate Selke consideration for McDavid, if not this season then at some point in the future. We can fill in the picture around these numbers, painting an understanding of how they are happening.
As with his offensive game, it’s easy to pick out a lot of McDavid’s strengths defensively, but difficult to which stands above the rest. There is a balance between a violence of intensity and athleticism combined with the grace of poise and artistry. One way or another, McDavid is capable of overwhelming any opponent. The speed to defend in transition, the stick skills to win any puck battle, the vision to see the plays ahead, and the quality to control possession, McDavid has all the tools required to be a dominant defensive presence for years to come.
Ghosts of history
Through true history of the NHL, there have been many stories of ultra talented offensive stars achieving team success by embracing a stronger defensive mentality. While victory inspires these narratives to an extent, and the fortunes of a strong team, health, and the occasional bounce always help, there is some truth to these stories.
Often cited is the story of Steve Yzerman in the early 90s, challenged by Coach Scotty Bowman to change his impact to one focused more defensively. Of course, the Detroit Red Wings would go on to be one of the most dominant teams of the next decade and a half or so, boasting a number of all-time talents. Funnily enough, McDavid’s defensive attributes might more closely resemble those of Sergei Fedorov, a Selke winner himself.
More recent is another Hart and Art Ross Trophy winner in Sidney Crosby. While McDavid was quickly ascending from super rookie to world’s best player, Crosby was more frequently in Selke conversations, winning back to back Stanley Cups and playoff MVPs in 2016–17 and 2017–18.
Still, this individual award for McDavid is only one potential area of interest to serve the greater goal of a championship. More important than actually winning or getting votes for the Selke is the fact that McDavid, followed by Draisaitl and the rest of the Oilers, is forging a stronger defensive identity to the point where such a conversation can be entertained.
After all, the Selke is often an award won over the course of several seasons, with reputation playing a huge role in a given player’s candidacy. With the power vacuum that exists with Patrice Bergeron retired, there are several worthy candidates around the league overdue for recognition. In other words, we shouldn’t be holding our breath for a Selke win for McDavid this season, but we should appreciate that he is worthy of being considered, and above all else, that the Oilers are legitimate perennial contenders.
Photo by Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire
