The Bakersfield Condors have yet to live up to the strong standard they achieved in the back half of last season that saw them battle their way into the AHL playoffs. This is not a huge surprise, as the team boasts a glut of rookie or sophomore professionals that are still finding their way into bigger roles, meaning that another late season upswing is not out of the question. Though many of these younger Condors are not producing to levels optimistic fans might have been hoping for, we have still seen positive signs that more is on the way.
Development takes time, and we should be looking for improvements beyond scoring rates. Scouting and projecting is by nature half science, half art, and fully unpredictable, a truth that should have us thinking critically in challenging our beliefs, and changing our mind with new information.
The Condors played two games this past week, playing the Ontario Reign in both games. The Reign are one of the stronger teams in the AHL’s Pacific Division and boast a large contingent of high draft picks throughout their roster. Granted, the rising tide of winning games raises all ships. In general, given that there is a group of young, potentially NHL relevant prospects on the Condors, earning such positive results is impossible without contributions that entice the future.
Without further ado let’s take a look at the happenings of the latest week and how they fit into the bigger picture for the prospects on the Condors roster. Below is how the Condors lineup looked.
Forwards
Raphael Lavoie is continuing to produce, leading the Condors offensive charge with a variety of offensive tools. The consistency issues that often marred Lavoie’s early seasons in the AHL have evaporated, coming up on a full year’s worth of reliable play as his team’s top scorer. It is disappointing to many that Lavoie is off the NHL roster, but the Oilers willingness to deploy him in meaningful icetime has not affected the player that he is at this point.
In the following clip we will see his shot, as he capitalised in a high danger shot, a tool often noted in describing Lavoie’s upside. While this is hardly a surprise, the more encouraging sign might be in his play before scoring.
Lavoie generates this whole series with a pair of clear cut successful stick lifts, first along the wall behind the net, then again in the slot. While Lavoie’s best tools are NHL ready, it is the subtleties that his game has lacked that have kept him from more NHL icetime. Between his size, strength, and stick skills Lavoie is demonstrating that he is continuing to find ways to better leverage his game as a whole.
While Lavoie is listed on the third line on this graphic, their usage throughout these games was greater than that would suggest. Lavoie is still the most dangerous scorer on the team, and is currently with proven AHL scorer Seth Griffith. Between the two offensive wingers was Brad Malone, a very defensive minded player, and Jayden Grubbe, an AHL rookie with a similar disposition.
Grubbe likely won’t be able to score from distance the way that he did in the WHL, but might find that his limited production translates well to higher levels thanks to his potential to get to the net front. His three points across 17 games is a modest start, but getting a chance to centre Lavoie and Griffith is a good sign that he is earning the trust of his coaches and teammates.
Tyler Tullio finds himself on a line with Xavier Bourgault. Bourgault gets a lot of the attention, but since being drafted a round apart Tullio has been every bit as good a player. The mystique of the first round isn’t the only thing that differentiates the two, as their stylistic dispositions are opposite, and perhaps complimentary of each other.
While Bourgault is cool, coy, smart, Tullio is fiery, feisty, and dogged. Both seem to have well rounded games, and should be impactful on both sides of the puck going forward. Both are producing at encouraging rates, especially since sharing a line together since Tullio returned from injury. In the next clip we’ll see the two combine on a goal.
Tullio does initially attempt a one-timer, but makes a fantastic read when the puck comes back around to find Bourgault with a quick, decisive, and bold cross ice pass. For his part, Bourgault is able to use his spacial awareness to create offence in the slot. While a one-timer from a high slot bumper position is more the hallmark of Bourgault’s highlight reel, finding his way closer to the net to score is a good sign. This is an illustration of Tullio’s ability to pressure pucks along the wall, a more aggressive strong safety, and Bourgault’s ability to navigate a crowded middle ice, a more tactical free safety. We should acknowledge some of Greg McKegg‘s work in winning possession.
It might be foolish to assume that the duo will continue to play on the same line, let alone if and when they ascend to the NHL, yet building chemistry with each other might be a great asset going forward. Not only might they boost each other’s production in the present, but they might be able to make some waves in next season’s NHL training camp.
Matvey Petrov is absent due to injury after he blocked a shot earlier this month. While there is not an official timetable available to us, the quotes we have seem to suggest that Petrov will be back before January. Some might be disappointed in his production so far, as clearly he will need to adjust and grow in confidence against professionals. More than we should look too deeply into his scoring so far, we should put stock in how he’s able to improve throughout his rookie season. Regardless, Petrov will be looking to take a big jump over the summer, as he will need to prove himself a dominant offensive producer in the AHL to earn a call up to the NHL.
The line of Drake Caggiula, Lane Pederson, and Tyler Wright has been quite strong, as one would expect from the trio. Wright has had a lot of success scoring with his shot, and Cagguila leads the team in points. In all this line is made up of good AHLers, less likely to have an effect on the NHL picture than others. The Condors have a fairly defined top-nine forwards, with three lines of relatively similar effectiveness.
Defence
Philip Broberg finds himself in the AHL once more, and still looks to be a top defenceman at this level. The Oilers seem unimpressed with their former top 10 draft pick, even being rumoured to be looking into trade scenarios. Still, there is a lot to like about Broberg as a prospect, and still waiver exempt, there is still time to be patient with him. Phil Kemp is a solid player in his own right, but Broberg is the clear alpha dog of this top pairing. It might not be wrong to suggest that the Condors will be a higher calibre team with Broberg in the lineup than without.
Max Wanner is another of the rookie Condors, and has done well to earn such a big role so early into his career. Cam Dineen is a proven offensive AHL defenceman, an ideal partner for Wanner to wet his feet with in the NHL. Wanner was fantastic in last season’s rookie camp on a pairing with Broberg, and if Broberg is going to keep spending time in the AHL we could see the pair reunited.
Even though for one of them it might be disappointing, if the two young defencemen end this season as the Condors top pairing, powering the team to the playoffs, this reality would be a great sign.
Markus Niemelainen and Noel Hoefenmayer are just as strong a pair as the others, mirroring the Condors deployment philosophy in their forward lines with a deep top six. Hoefenmayer is on his weak side here, the offensive partner of the two, while Niemelainen is a physical force.
Olivier Rodrigue continued his fantastic development curve. Last season he made a case for being the Condors starter, and this season he has not only outdueled his creasemates, but maintained a consistent level of excellence. It might be too early to think of an NHL call up, but Rodrigue is taking strides towards that in the future. For now, we will hope to see Rodrigue maintain this performance throughout the rest of the season, cementing his status as a true AHL starter, worthy of getting some NHL looks as a third stringer.
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