The latest 32 Thoughts from Elliotte Friedman had plenty of details and notes on the Edmonton Oilers. This makes sense as the team is turning a corner with three consecutive wins buoyed by an incredible individual performance from Connor McDavid.
This team came into the season as Cup favourites and now needs to figure out what it takes for them to make the climb, whether or not to go all-in, and when to make moves. Here’s the latest from Friedman on Edmonton.
Oilers are scouting for goalies
Edmonton sent a team of scouts to Columbus. Twice. The primary reason is obvious: get help in net. The Blue Jackets have three goaltenders in Elvis Merzlikins, Spencer Martin, and a close-to-returning Daniil Tarasov. The math is simple. Columbus may have a goalie available in the near future and Edmonton appears interested.
Merzlikins makes $5.4M, but Martin makes $762.5K and Tarasov makes $1.05M. Tarasov being a 2017 third-round pick by Columbus makes him less likely to be moved at this point, so the signs are pointing toward Martin, whose contract just makes all the more sense for a cap-ceiling team like Edmonton.
Lastly, a note was made on Jack Campbell‘s AHL stint, where he’s since turned it around after he stumbled out of the gates. A call-up may be in the works for him if things continue to go well.
The return of McDavid
No, this isn’t about his return from injury. It’s his return to being the best player in the sport. Friedman notes that over a span of 10 days, McDavid went from being 91st to 10th in NHL scoring. No one expected McDavid to remain 91st, but did anyone expect that sharp a jump either? McDavid is just that good and he’s been a large part of the turnaround in Edmonton.
Also, the return to form for Mattias Ekholm has also contributed to the Oilers’ good fortune as of late.
The coaching situation
The Oilers and the Wild have both made coaching changes and Friedman noted that the glaring similarity between the two teams are their expected goal differentials. Between the offence the two teams have generated versus the actual goals they’ve scored in combination with the goaltending they’ve received, both teams have either been snakebitten on offence, leaky on defence, or both. Spoiler: it’s both.
Goals Differential Above Expected is basically the combination of Goals For Above Expected and Goals Against Above Expected. It essentially combines scoring results based on shot quality at both ends of the ice.
The higher the GFAx of a team, the more their shots are going in compared to what is expected from similar shots taken in similar circumstances over the entire shot dataset. The lower the GAAx for a team, the more saves they are making compared to what is expected. In short, teams that see results on the ice and in the standings typically have positive GFAx and negative GAAx.
The Oilers and Wild… do not.
| Team | GFAx | GAAx | GDAx |
|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | -6.4 | 17.32 | -23.72 |
| MIN | -6.75 | 13.17 | -19.92 |
This data is from MoneyPuck.com as of November 30, 2023.
In a tangential note for Edmonton regarding the coaching as well, it was mentioned that Paul Coffey was put behind the bench as someone already comfortable with the players, removing one more person the team would have needed time to get familiar with.
What’s next for Edmonton
The climb to the playoff conversation is still steep, but at least Edmonton is climbing and not flatlining. If they can string together a few more win streaks, they’re going to keep knocking down teams one by one until they actually do find themselves in a playoff spot.
It’s going to be tough, but it’s not impossible.
