Despite a win at the Heritage Classic, the Edmonton Oilers still find themselves mired in a streak of poor results. Much of these shortcomings are expressed in shooting and saving “luck”, as the Oilers have underperformed their expected goals both offensively and defensively. The slow start has gone on long enough that several aspects of the Oilers are under question as well, from the penalty kill, to the secondary scoring, even to the power play.
One area that stands out in contrast is the play of Leon Draisaitl. With Connor McDavid missing time due to injury, and now most likely returned to the lineup at less than full health, the Oilers are that much more reliant on Draisaitl to carry the load offensively than they are already designed to, however this is not where the surprisingly good results have come. In fact, Draisaitl is gaining recognition for his growing effectiveness on the defensive side of the puck.
More than a scorer?
Over his career, Draisaitl has often been thought of among a group of elite talents vying for the unofficial mantle of the world’s second best player behind McDavid. While undoubtedly worthy of such consideration, perhaps the biggest point to counter this claim would be to point out that Draisaitl often posted sub par defensive results. While various public models have backed up the idea that Draisaitl has historically not been a strong defensive presence, all of them still suggest that Draisaitl is more than worthy of his reputation as an all world talent.
Still, Draisaitl himself has pushed back against the idea, often using his dry wit against reporters who tread on the topic with critical eyes. Moreover, Draisaitl has openly discussed his willingness to improve defensively outright. Given his talent, quality, disposition, and mind for the game in general, it really isn’t that surprising to see Draisaitl make strides defensively. Consider, also, that skater defence for forwards ages considerably better than offence (which decline harshly with age), or defensive results for defencemen.
When we further analyse Draisaitl’s skill set we can begin to visualise the attributes that allow him success on defence. Naturally, his size and strength are attributes that help, as checking opponents does often require a degree of physicality. Draisaitl uses his hockey sense to anticipate passes as well, breaking the opponent’s possession. Combined with his puck protection skills, Draisaitl is able to win 50/50 pucks, and even strip possession from opponents in close. There is an increased maturity shown through this commitment to defence, and this is evident in Draisaitl’s stats so far this season.
Draisaitl is controlling play through expected goals percentage and high danger scoring chance percentage, stats that weigh his offensive prowess against his defensive impact, but of note he does grade quite well from a purely defensive perspective. This is evident in strong per 60 numbers, like expected goals against per 60 or scoring chances against per 60.
| Player | HDCF/60 | HDCA/60 | HDCF% | xGF/60 | xGA/60 | xGF% | GF/60 | GA/60 | GF% |
| Sam Gagner | 21.36 | 5.34 | 80 | 5.18 | 0.96 | 84.34 | 10.68 | 0 | 100 |
| Connor Brown | 10.22 | 6.82 | 60 | 2.7 | 2.02 | 66.12 | 0 | 2.27 | 0 |
| Ryan McLeod | 12.35 | 8.82 | 58.33 | 2.69 | 2.33 | 64.08 | 0 | 1.18 | 0 |
| Leon Draisaitl | 16.6 | 7.69 | 68.33 | 4.03 | 2.06 | 62.52 | 3.24 | 1.62 | 66.67 |
| Vincent Desharnais | 16.74 | 5.86 | 74.07 | 2.94 | 1.94 | 61.65 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 50 |
| Connor McDavid | 12.31 | 9.51 | 56.41 | 3.06 | 2.65 | 60.34 | 2.8 | 3.36 | 45.45 |
| Darnell Nurse | 17.11 | 8.74 | 66.18 | 3.47 | 2.6 | 60.34 | 2.28 | 3.42 | 40 |
| Evan Bouchard | 14 | 9.76 | 58.93 | 3.51 | 2.37 | 60.27 | 2.97 | 4.24 | 41.18 |
| Cody Ceci | 18.88 | 8.84 | 68.12 | 3.9 | 2.56 | 59.63 | 2.41 | 2.01 | 54.55 |
| Dylan Holloway | 15.61 | 9.01 | 63.41 | 3.12 | 2.31 | 57.45 | 0 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Mattias Ekholm | 11.12 | 12.09 | 47.92 | 3.05 | 2.64 | 57.22 | 3.38 | 3.38 | 50 |
| Zach Hyman | 19.96 | 10.71 | 65.08 | 4.46 | 2.78 | 57.18 | 6.33 | 5.35 | 54.17 |
| Mattias Janmark | 14.16 | 5 | 73.91 | 2.89 | 1.62 | 54.96 | 0.83 | 2.5 | 25 |
| Warren Foegele | 19.8 | 14.71 | 57.38 | 3.48 | 3.13 | 54.68 | 2.26 | 3.39 | 40 |
| Evander Kane | 16.47 | 11.13 | 59.68 | 3.47 | 3.16 | 53.64 | 3.12 | 4.45 | 41.18 |
| Brett Kulak | 14.39 | 8.73 | 62.22 | 3.23 | 2.12 | 53.63 | 2.06 | 3.08 | 40 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 21.49 | 11.46 | 65.22 | 4.46 | 2.67 | 53.52 | 4.78 | 4.78 | 50 |
| Derek Ryan | 12.13 | 8.9 | 57.69 | 2.72 | 2.23 | 52.6 | 0.81 | 2.43 | 25 |
| Adam Erne | 6.82 | 5.46 | 55.56 | 1.9 | 1.82 | 52.3 | 0 | 1.36 | 0 |
| Philip Broberg | 16.91 | 12.29 | 57.89 | 3.46 | 2.87 | 51 | 2.31 | 3.07 | 42.86 |
Putting it all together we can see that Draisaitl has clearly made strides defensively, a fact that is tangible in the early weeks of the 2023–24 season, even with the team struggling and McDavid missing time or playing through injury. Naturally, any conversation about one of the Oilers’ superstars is quick to involve the other, and this one is no different. There is precedent for dominant offensive centres achieving such lofty standards later in their career. Notably, Sidney Crosby has long found himself getting some Selke consideration each season.
Selke and other trophies
While Selke candidacies are often built over the course of several seasons, it is quite possible that as the Oilers’ stars age and their offensive totals inevitably start to wane, that their will to impact the game will see their defensive play ramp up to a level worthy of Selke consideration. It won’t be this season, but in five years we might be talking about both of the Oilers superstars in this light. Both have received some consideration for the Selke, but often these have been one-offs. While the voting on such awards can be suspect, a true Selke candidate will see a significant amount of votes each season. Draisaitl finished as high as 13th in 2020–21, while McDavid finished as high as 16th in 2016–17, but the legitimacy of these results are cast into doubt by the infrequent nature of their Selke votes since then.
As usual the contrasting styles of Draisaitl and McDavid offer a certain synergy, a truth that might be just as helpful defensively in the future as it has been offensively in the past. While McDavid is built around speed, Draisaitl is built around power. Their maturation as defenders will give the Oilers a pair of extremely valuable and diverse tools to deploy.
This offseason, new President of Hockey Operations Jeff Jackson stated his vision to keep the Oilers in Stanley Cup contention for the next 10 seasons, if not beyond that. The defensive maturation of the team is their biggest hurdle, as even a strong showing in this respect last season was not consistent or all encapsulating enough to withstand the Vegas Golden Knights.
Unfortunately, it might be up to both McDavid and Draisaitl to lead the charge themselves, evolving into perennial Selke candidates, for the Oilers to achieve their ultimate goal. Yes, it would be nice if the two stars did not have to save the Oilers on both ends of the rink, but there are no better bets than for the Oilers to rely on their leaders.
Comparing to Crosby
To further the comparison to Crosby, and perhaps to the Pittsburgh Penguins as a whole, it should be noted that there is some correlation between Crosby’s Selke considerations and the team’s Stanley Cup victories. His first Selke votes came in 2009–10 season, also the first Stanley Cup. While Crosby only finished 30th in Selke voting this is still more than either McDavid or Draisaitl have achieved to this point.
Crosby had some good seasons, finishing 15th, 18th, and 19th in Selke voting from the 2012–13 to 2014–15 seasons. Finally, it should come as no surprise that the Penguins back to back Cup wins came in seasons where Crosby finished top 10 in Selke voting for the first and second time, in 2015–16 and 2016–17. Crosby’s two way dominance was debatably at its peak, winning back to back playoff MVPs to match the Penguins back to back Cups, yet it was at this point that the hockey world started to crown McDavid as the games best player. Perhaps, therein lies some wisdom, a guideline to the Oilers eventual success.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
