The Edmonton Oilers are now entering the ninth and tenth years of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and expectations are sky-high for this group. As with every season, unexpected twists and turns will happen. Did many of us see Jack Campbell becoming one of the worst goaltenders in the league last season? What about the emergence of Vincent Desharnais half through the year which positively helped out the Oilers’ penalty kill? What about bringing in Mattias Ekholm despite the constant rumours of Erik Karlsson, Joel Edmundson, Vlad Gavrikov, and John Klingberg? Assumingly, none of us.
So, today, I’ll list my hot takes for the Oilers this upcoming season.
1. Campbell does not exceed a .900 SV%
We all know that last year was a colossal failure on his part and Campbell will be the first one to admit that. However, this preseason things appear to seem different. Campbell picked up three wins in this preseason including a game against a largely dominated Calgary Flames NHL squad. The thing is I don’t know if he keeps this up.
Campbell’s a guy who lets his mental state get the better of him and if he starts the year cold as he did last year, it’s entirely possible for him to struggle for the majority of the season again. Let’s not forget that in the preseason of 2022, he looked solid as well, and we all know how that ended up. He’ll definitely be better for this upcoming season, as I don’t know how you could get worse from his 2022–23 campaign, but my prediction is that it’s still Stuart Skinner’s net for the time being and Campbell will struggle again to kick off the season.
2. Brown goes 30–30–60
The worst-kept secret in the league over the past few years was the Oiler’s interest in Connor Brown. They almost acquired him back in 2019 as a Benning-Brown swap, they came close to trading for him last summer until the Capitals swooped in, and now they finally got him.
At a one-year league minimum base salary, with bonuses up to $3.25M, Connor Brown is *finally* an Edmonton Oiler. The former Erie captain has played with the current Oilers captain, the other Connor, a lot in their junior days. In Brown’s last season in junior, he scored 128 points and 45 goals. Brown has shown already that the chemistry between him and McDavid is still there today. It’ll take a while for him to get going from his ACL surgery, but riding shotgun beside 97 or even 29 all year will boost his numbers tremendously.
Brown has shown he’s a very strong playdriver at 5v5 which the Oilers desperately need. The fact that he’s above average in finishing too is gonna help a lot. The Oilers have had guys such as Kailer Yamamoto and Zack Kassian consistently get top-six ice time and could never finish the chances they get. Brown is gonna change that this season. Book it. 30 goals.
3. Nugent-Hopkins is above PPG again
Fans may call the “Nuge” a “power play merchant” all they want, that’s fine. The fact of the matter is that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is what makes the power play so dangerous. In 29 games since the beginning of the 2019–20 season, the Oilers have a power play percentage of 22.7 without RNH. Furthermore, McDavid and the entire power play generated more goals/60 with Nugent-Hopkins on the ice.
The power play is gonna get even better this season with Evan Bouchard manning the point. Another thing is RNH still produced 40 5v5 points last season along with ~52 EVS. He’ll still produce outside the PP. Will he hit 100 again? Probably not. Is 80 to 90 points still realistic? Yes.
4. The Oilers bring home Jared Spurgeon
Listen, a man can dream, can’t he? As I mentioned, who thought Nashville would sell at the deadline and we’d acquire Ekholm? The captain of the Minnesota Wild is an Edmonton native, carrying a cap hit of around $7.5M for four more seasons. Spurgeon is the perfect fit for Darnell Nurse.
Nurse needs a partner who can cover him when he’s jumping up on the rush, but also be able to contribute offensively on the backend. I’m in absolute love with Spurgeon and while his cap hit is hefty, the Oilers are finally accruing cap space and could dump guys like Cody Ceci and Warren Foegele elsewhere to make this happen. With Jeff Jackson in charge, along with some nice analytical hirings in Michael Parkatti and Mike Fanelli, maybe the Oilers will be creative for once. I definitely think acquiring Spurgeon would put us over the edge to win the cup. That being said…
5. The Oilers win the Stanley Cup
This is the year. Draisaitl is turning 28 and McDavid will be 27 soon. Right in the prime of their careers and with two big contract extensions looming, they’ll get it done. The room is rightfully pissed off with what happened last season and I can’t help but compare to when the Colorado Avalanche suffered the same defeat to the Vegas Golden Knights a year before they went onto win the cup.
The top four defence of Nurse-Spurgeon and Ekholm-Bouchard, along with the steady, reliable Brett Kulak will show that the Oilers finally boast one of the league’s top D cores. They’ll get secondary scoring from Dylan Holloway and Ryan McLeod who will finally break out, and an unexpected rise from Raphael Lavoie or Xavier Bourgault. Skinner who’s won at every level he’s been at will be considered a hometown hero. They’ll defeat the New York Rangers, carried by Igor Shesterkin, in six games.
Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire
References: https://moneypuck.com/, https://www.naturalstattrick.com/ and https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey
