Welcome to the Oil Rig’s Pacific Division preview series. Today let’s take a closer look at the Anaheim Ducks, the team that eliminated the Edmonton Oilers last season.
Ducks potential this season
Although no games have been played since their playoff demise, the blossoming dream of the Ducks future has been dealt a huge blow. Notorious for hard nosed contract negotiations, GM Pat Verbeek lost control of his team’s internal cap structure as the Leo Carlsson offered sheet catapulted the league into a new salary cap paradigm.
What once seemed one of the hottest up and coming teams in the league, led by emerging talents, has now fallen into an awful cap reality. There is no sign of key negotiations getting any easier either, and the Ducks roster has already begun to suffer in turn.
Instead of focusing on pushing a young group even further, the Ducks are instead forced to try to navigate their way back to the level of talent and depth they enjoyed last season. While this framework is deflating, every challenge is an opportunity. The Ducks will have to find a way to empower more youth into key roles within the NHL lineup to have a chance.
Forwards
Gauthier—Carlsson—Sennecke
Killorn—Granlund—Vatrano
Nesterenko—Poehling—Gaucher
Malott—Washe—Greer
Extras: Terry (Dec), McQueen, Wahlberg
While there are some veterans to insulate things, the Ducks are coming to be defined by a trio of young stars. Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, and Beckett Sennecke are already incredibly influential players. Their talents should continue to grow, making the trio amongst the best young forward cores the league has to offer. The situation with Gauthier’s contract is tense, which looks to blemish the outstanding future the trio might have together.
Alex Killorn and Frank Vatrano should be able to handle top-nine roles adequately. Ryan Poehling and Tim Washe represent a strong duo of checking centres to stabilize the bottom of the lineup. Troy Terry will miss the first third of the season, but will undoubtedly be a factor in the second half.
There is some upside outside the lineup. Anton Wahlberg has the size and spirit to fit amongst the Ducks forwards. Sam Colangelo has authored some success in the past. Roger McQueen offers the most upside, though a season developing in the AHL seems most prudent. McQueen’s development becomes central to the Ducks future. At some point they will need a boost at centre, even prior to considering the potential loss of Gauthier.
Defence
LaCombe—Luneau
Mintyukov—Jensen
Hinds—Helleson
Extras: Moore, Warren
The blueline will be the biggest area of change for the Ducks. While Jackson LaCombe has proven himself as a strong top pairing option, the Ducks will be relying on some big steps forward from their younger defencemen.
Pavel Mintyukov will not only have to play a bigger role than ever before, but will need to thrive in it. He might be required to carry an even younger and less experienced partner, though Nick Jensen might be the partner who can help Mintyukov most. Tristan Luneau has yet to grab hold of an NHL role either, but the young right shot has at least posted some strong work in the AHL. Drew Helleson has some NHL experience, and is still young enough that a big step forward might be possible.
Tyson Hinds, Ian Moore, and Noah Warren are fairly unproven. Moore has played forward for the Ducks, a worthwhile experiment that may or may not continue. Warren has the frame and profile as a more physical defensive option, which might be sorely lacking with Radko Gudas and Jacob Trouba gone. Hinds saw some great results in limited appearances last season, and might well be an underrated breakout player from the Ducks playoff run.
The Ducks will be relying on a lot of projection to cobble a decent blueline together. Trouba, Gudas, and Olen Zellweger are huge losses, as the Ducks might be replacing half their group with unproven options. Clearly, the team will need huge steps from multiple defencemen on the roster. Under previous GMs the Ducks have had a lot of success here, and there are at least young options worth exploring.
Goalies
Dostal
Husso
Brossoit
The talent drain, especially on the blueline, will only serve to make the Ducks goalies busier. In many ways the Ducks were still learning how to win last season. They had the talent to make any game electrifying, and often did so at the expense of their own footing. Slow starts led to comebacks, just as leafs faded away. The penalty kill came together as the season wore on.
Through it all, Lukas Dostal stood tall. Last season his was among the heaviest workloads in the league. If the Ducks can find their way defensively, or tighten on the details, they would help Dostal’s individual stats. While Vezina Trophy upside might rely on better stats, he has fully arrived as a bonafide starter. Ville Husso and Laurent Broissoit are both reasonable backup options.
Predictions for the season
If things had gone a little differently the Ducks might be positioned to push for the division crown. Just the same, the hysterics of the summer shows that hope can quickly turn to ash. The worst case scenario is that Gauthier cannot be re-signed and the team has to regroup. Years of rebuilding could go up in smoke. Hold on to your firsts.
Securing the future with Cutter Gauthier would do a lot for the psyche of this team. Some salary shedding should be possible, one way or another, as evidenced by letting go of Chris Kreider. The continued ascent from Gauthier, Sennecke, and Carlsson is requisite for playoff relevance. Players missing training camp rarely play their best upon return, so bridging him to offer sheet eligibility could be an option.
They will need the defence to come together, but the group has a lot to work with. A younger team might take a while to lock in defensively, but a fighting spirit should see them improve as the postseason looms.
The San Jose Sharks will be trendier choices. The Los Angeles Kings more stable. An optimist would have the Ducks ahead of both, fighting for a divisional playoff spot instead of a Wild card.
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