The Edmonton Oilers 2022–23 season may have ended in defeat, but the machinations of roster improvement are already well underway for the start of the 2023–24 season. The Oilers are in a strong position, destined to return as legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. As such, the focus on the team is firmly in the (relative) present. Much of the offseason’s scheming and dreaming will focus on transactions from this scope. Potential free agents or chatter from the trade market serve as the headlines, the big game hunting, sweeping across all of the NHL’s teams, one way or another.
Perhaps less attention grabbing, but arguably more important, a piece of the offseason puzzle is that of internal development. The salary cap dictates that even contending teams find ways to have immense value from younger players on lower cap hits. Ultimately, drafting and developing impact players is the lifeblood of building and maintaining a strong team.
With the 2023 NHL Entry Draft just around the corner, let’s take stock of what the Oilers have in their prospect system. In doing so we might understand what types of players they might select, what skill sets or profiles they seem to value, what the prospects have been up to, and where their development might go next.
Centres
Especially across the forward positions, each player has a certain level of positional flexibility. We can see this at the NHL level, but perhaps more so we see it on the path towards the NHL. With each passing season, climbing into better and better leagues, the relevance of a given prospect’s experience at centre can become obsolete quickly.
The following prospects listed at centre are players who still have enough history and talents at centre. Therefore, we should expect that at least a couple of the centres shift to the wing in the near future, if they haven’t already. There is a case that each might be worthy of a look in the middle, in turn.
If there is a theme for this group it would be defensive utility, or perhaps a defensive willingness as a whole.
Holloway
In a tier of his own, Dylan Holloway is essentially an NHLer already. It would be a surprise to see him in the AHL in 2023–24; in fact we should expect a step forward in asserting himself. We will know if Holloway is ready to be effective if we start to see his strengths show up more consistently, causing pressure with a strong forecheck and creating chances with a confident shot.
Bourgault, Tullio, Grubbe, and Philp
The second tier has two types of prospects. There are three young CHL graduates in Xavier Bourgault, Tyler Tullio, and Jayden Grubbe—first, second, and third round picks respectively. Bourgault and Tullio both authored competitive middle six play in their rookie professional seasons for the Bakersfield Condors. Most of their production came when deployed with more skilled linemates, but both showed a lot of promise in becoming integral pets to a team that battled its way into the playoffs.
Bourgault is decidedly ahead, with some thinking that he has an outside shot at pushing for a spot in training camp, but Tullio has done well in keeping up. At the very least we should expect to see them impact the game to a greater extent in the AHL next season. If they can bring their respective 200 foot abilities to reasonable top six production, an NHL audition would be soon to follow.
Meanwhile, Grubbe was recently acquired. Yet to play professional hockey, Grubbe captained the Red Deer Rebels for a third consecutive season, hitting a point per game for the first time, along with his hallmark defensive play. He will look to follow in the footsteps of Bourgault and Tullio in being a reliable staple for the Condors in his rookie AHL season.
On the other end of the spectrum, Noah Philp is an older prospect whose scoring totals won’t jump off the page. Philp has been a steady force down the middle, a reliable player who does most of his offensive work at the netfront. Many of the sharp hockey minds that cover the Condors core believe that Philp could be ready to take his game to the NHL. Philp will not be much more than a depth centre, but he is certainly worth keeping an eye on heading into training camp.
Berglund, Maatta, Denezhkin, and Mazura
The final tier is quite far from the NHL, but Carl Berglund and Joel Maatta in particular are known for their work ethic and defensive dedication. Skyler Brind’Amour certainly fits our theme, but is less and less likely to sign with the Oilers.
What this group tells us as a whole, or rather that it informs the future is that we should expect the Oilers to value defensive abilities when drafting centres. This can come in different shapes and sizes.
Wingers
While we were quite generous with our centre eligibility, the wingers here are not likely to find themselves at centre at any point. The group is also distinguished by their general skill archetype. There is a more pronounced offensive flair to this group, but in general there is a trend towards capable goal scoring.
Beryozkin and Petrov
Maxim Beryozkin has one year left on his current KHL deal, a fact that has discouraged attention, or at least deferred attention towards next offseason. Beryozkin should be able to increase his production this season, and might skip over the AHL if he continues his trajectory. A big body, Beryozkin attacks laterally in the offensive zone, opening up shooting and passing lanes. Beryozkin has a good enough shot to score on good opportunities, but has been getting to the net front more often. Beryozkin has the tools to be a strong forechecker, closing gaps and stealing pucks.
Meanwhile, Matvei Petrov finished his final OHL season, bound for AHL Bakersfield next season. Once known for his shot, Petrov has rounded out his playmaking skills, distributing with confidence for a strong North Bay Battalion team. We should hope to see Petrov settle into a regular AHL role next season, leaving worries about offensive totals until his sophomore AHL campaign.
Savoie, Chiasson, and Lachance
This tier will all need to have strong seasons to assert their potential NHL relevance. Carter Savoie is a year older than his fellow AHL rookies, and was not quite as effective as the likes of Bourgault or Tullio. Still, Savoie has strong agility and puck handling skills, as well as a willingness to shoot. We will need to see some legitimate AHL production soon to keep holding out hope for Savoie.
Jake Chiasson had a strong finish to his unior career after being traded to the Saskatoon Blades at the trade deadline. The scoring wasn’t nearly as high as Petrov’s, but Chiasson does bring a slightly different element. Chiasson is best in the close quarters of the inner slot, scoring some big goals for the Blades. Chiasson should look to add some strength and balance to have success in the professional ranks, enough to support his goal scoring touch in tight. Like Petrov, Chiasson will make his professional debut in the AHL.
Shane Lachance has been a top producer in the USHL for the past two seasons. With a big frame, legitimate shooting talent, a net front presence, and a strong enough skater to be effective off the rush, Lachance was a powerhouse, albeit at a lower level. Already into his age 19 season, he is to be an NCAA freshman in 2023–24. If Lachance can prove to be a good scorer at the next level it will help put him on the map for more casual fans. Lachance is still a ways off, but if he’s able to score at a high rate over the next three or four seasons he could be knocking on the door of an NHL spot.
None of the wingers in the Oilers system will play NHL games in 2023–24. Beryozkin might be in line for a 2024–25 debut, as might Savoie if he’s able to take a big step this season. Petrov and Chiasson should aim to become top six AHL scorers by the end of their sophomore AHL seasons. It is fair to value production for these players, or to attach some barometer of their overall evaluation to production.
While there is some upside in this group it certainly isn’t the deepest area in the Oilers system. Perhaps we will see the team target a high upside scorer in the draft, or perhaps this is somewhat by design as the Oilers prioritise other positions.
Defencemen
Based on volume alone we should expect the Oilers to add to their defence prospect group. Despite a smaller number of prospects, there are still some noteworthy player working their way up the ranks for the Oilers. There is a clear theme for this group, a theme evidenced by the Oilers NHL blueline: size.
This is clearly a preference for the Oilers, and as such it would be pretty out of character to see the team draft a smaller defenceman.
Broberg
Like Holloway, Philip Broberg is essentially an NHLer already. A highly touted prospect, Broberg has the size, mobility, and skills to be an effective player in all situations. We are still waiting for Broberg to come into his own at the NHL level, but there has been a steady year to year improvement on his part.
Because of the Oilers organisational focus on the here and now, Broberg finds himself with less support than ideal. Thoroughly blocked on his strong side, Broberg played much of his hockey on the right side down the stretch, fighting for rotational minutes in a seven-man defence lineup.
We should expect Broberg to earn a bit more usage in the lower stakes of the regular season in 2023–24. Consistent third pair minutes on the right side, perhaps with a regular partner, would still represent a step forward for Broberg, who played sheltered minutes on the third pairing with Evan Bouchard prior to the Mattias Ekholm acquisition.
It might not be until the 2024–25 season that we should hope for a true top four level of play from Broberg. Still, through some injuries to the Oilers lineup, we should hope to see flashes of this reality when Broberg is elevated in the lineup this coming season.
Wanner and Yevseyev
The second tier is occupied by a pair of younger defencemen who have shown defensive prowess beyond their years. Both were late round picks by the Oilers, a true feather in the cap of GM Holland and the Oilers scouting staff.
Maximus Wanner (2021 seventh-round pick) is a big, right shot defenceman who had a consistent upward trajectory over the course of his WHL career. Wanner uses his frame and physicality to his advantage, but consistently gained confidence in his skating and offensive abilities after being drafted by the Oilers. In his final junior season, Wanner’s mobility was a clear plus, as were his puck skills. With some solid stick handling, Wanner opened up passing lanes, allowing him to complete aggressive transition passing plays. Wanner used both in concert to cut into the slot from the blueline, even using his backhand to score goals.
In all, the tools are extremely promising for Wanner, who will look to assert himself as an AHL rookie in 2023–24. There is one concerning element in Wanner’s profile, as he and three teammates were suspended indefinitely by the WHL halfway through last season. We still have no official word on the nature of the suspensions, or what effect they might have going forward.
Nikita Yevseyev (2022 sixth-round pick) might be on his way to authoring an even more surprising developmental story just one year after being drafted. Yevseyev was a regular for a strong Ak Bars Kazan team in the KHL, holding down third pair minutes. After the trade deadline, the Kazan lineup got deeper, pushing Yevseyev down to the fourth pairing (KHL teams dress more skaters than NHL teams).
Still, Yevseyev was a regular contributor to a team that lost in the Gagarin Cup Final, comfortably winning the KHL’s “Rookie of the Playoffs” award. Despite being a teenager, Yevseyev has a stout and strong body. He is not as physically imposing as Wanner, for example, but plays with a poise and maturity beyond his years. We did see some signs of offence from Yevseyev this season. Often, this would come from his creeping down into the offensive zone during his team’s cycles, but as the season wore on we saw some longer outlet passes in transition as well.
It is a bit difficult to put Yevseyev’s progress into perspective because of how rare his career path has been. Not many teenagers play significant roles in the KHL, even less so on the blueline. To some extent, if Yevseyev is able to replicate his role for the next two seasons of his KHL contract, it will be representative of him being a good prospect. Backsliding is still a possibility, but if we continue to see strong defensive play, as well as more growth in his passing skills, Yevseyev should be able to make the jump from the KHL straight to the NHL.
Munzenberger and Kemp
Even in this final tier, the theme of size is fully evident. Both Luca Munzenberger and Philip Kemp bring a degree of skating ability to the ice as well, giving both a degree of prospective NHL viability. Kemp has been a member of the Condors for the past three seasons, increasing his offensive production to a career high 21 points in 71 games this past season. At 24 years of age, it won’t be Kemp’s offensive upside that sees him elevated to the NHL, rather his commitment to a responsible game.
Meanwhile, Luca Munzenberger has not put up impressive offensive totals at the University of Vermont either. Due to the low scoring nature of his team and their league, Munzenberger’s results here are not exactly a surprise. We did see a glimpse of a higher offensive ceiling from Munzenberger when he suited up for Germany in the (abridged) 2021 U20 World Juniors.
Still at 20 years old, there is a lot of road left for Munzenberger. He will likely leave his college career in the next season or two, where we might see how his game translates to the AHL.
In all, the Oilers have a clear preference for defencemen above 6’ tall. Fans across Oil Country should not be holding their breath for the Oilers to take a chance on any smaller defencemen, no matter how skilled. To an extent this philosophy has been validated by NHL playoff teams having success with bluelines built in a similar fashion.
Goalies
With Stuart Skinner fully graduating to NHLer, the Oilers goalie pipeline certainly takes a hit. With only three goalies in the system, it is possible that the Oilers find a way to add a body one way or another.
Rodrigue and Fanti
Olivier Rodrigue and Ryan Fanti are both expected to play AHL games next season, and could feasibly handle a full season between the two of them. Heading into their mid 20s, now is the time to start giving them a starter’s workload in the AHL.
Coming off of a disappointing 2021–22 season, Rodrigue bounced back in a big way in 2022–23, carrying the team while veteran Calvin Pickard was out. When Pickard returned to health he assumed the starter’s role, though Rodrigue was fairly close in terms of performance. Rodrigue has earned the opportunity to be the Condors starter outright.
Ryan Fanti had outstanding numbers in college, but had some turbulence adjusting to the professional ranks. This shouldn’t be too much of a concern, as Fanti had some ups and downs splitting his season in the ECHL and the AHL in 2022–23. We should hope to see more poise and consistency from Fanti as a full time AHLer in 2023–24.
Johnsson
Samuel Johnsson is still a teenager, far off the NHL radar. Johnsson has the size covered in modern goaltenders, and is worth keeping an eye on as he tries to earn more starts in professional leagues in Sweden over the next couple seasons.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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