The Edmonton Oilers already have a lot of talent up front, with their top five scoring forwards, as well as a number of strong checking options lower in the lineup, but there is something missing. This has been evidenced by the pressure applied to Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto over the years.
While the gaps in where the Oilers need to improve defensively might be a question mentality, the gaps offensively might be more rooted in ability. The Oilers have a number of in-house options worth exploring, each bringing their own lists of pros, cons, skills, and experiences, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that the team looks to bring in another option from the outside.
The Oilers simply don’t have enough room to add significant amounts of salary to the books. This means that despite a wide array of potential UFA or trade targets sure to be involved in rumours, many of the best affordable options might come from within. With that said let’s take a closer look at what those options might be.
Can Yamamoto still make a difference?
Running it back is something of an option. Kailer Yamamoto’s pedigree and salary dictate that this is his job in the top six that is up for grabs. Yamamoto’s offensive numbers might have already reached their peak earlier in his career, but it was a tough 2022–23 season in part due to injuries for Yamamoto.
Though it is likely that Yamamoto did not play at full health for much of the season, hopes of Yamamoto grabbing hold of a top six spot are waning. Quite frankly, even if Yamamoto’s production raised to a more viable level, it might not be enough to turn the tides of Oil Country back in his favour.
Though none can discredit Yamamoto’s effort level, his salary has become something of a burden, enough that many are expecting the Oilers to be forced to move on. If nothing else, this should underline the fact that the Oilers cap margins are thin, pouring cold water on many of the higher cost players fans might hope for.
Though the Oilers are searching for a player who produces at a higher level than Yamamoto or Puljujarvi, it might also have to come from a player who is less expensive. A tall task, indeed.
Holloway is an obvious answer
Perhaps the most obvious candidate to step into this role is Dylan Holloway. The Oilers first-round pick in 2019, Holloway has reasonable offensive pedigree, backed up by strong production in small AHL samples over the past two seasons.
Holloway came to last season’s training camp on a mission, playing his way into the opening night roster. With size and speed Holloway was a force on the forecheck, and showed off some of his shooting talents. This foray into NHL effectiveness was short lived, as Holloway quickly slid down the lineup. Even with the Oilers missing a number of forwards in the fall of the 2022–23 season, Holloway was limited to fourth line minutes. The confidence that adorned his game vanished as Holloway was not able to play the game the way he needed to be successful.
In January of the 2022–23 season Holloway was sent back to the AHL. It’s hardly the ideal scenario, but with only half a season of AHL games under his belt, it was worthwhile for Holloway to play in a bigger role to continue building his confidence and skill. Unfortunately Holloway suffered an injury, a problem that has plagued him since being drafted. Upon returning Holloway was a strong producer in the AHL once again.
Heading into next season’s training camp, Holloway will have the inside track on a lineup spot. While it would be nice to see him have an equally strong camp next season, it isn’t necessarily a requirement for him to play his way onto the team. We should expect Holloway to be more prepared to be an effective NHLer both physically and mentally. In concept, a step forward for Holloway is plausible and fitting of the narrow criteria the Oilers need to satisfy in their quest for an upgrade.
A reasonable but optimistic projection would see Holloway out-produce Yamamoto. A strong forechecker, like Puljujarvi, who can play centre, Holloway does profile as a player who could have a strong defensive impact. While this is not enough on its own, Holloway’s shot might make him a far stronger scorer than Yamamoto or Puljujarvi.
A stylistic plus is this ability to shoot from distance. Of course, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are among the NHL’s best scorers, and Evander Kane does have some long range shooting ability, another shooting threat would be appreciated.
McLeod is coming into his own
Finishing his second full NHL season, Ryan McLeod took another step forward in 2022–23. McLeod was a force as a full time third centre, posting exceptional expected goals metrics, especially when paired with Warren Foegele. With speed and strong transition defence, McLeod already fills a valuable role for the Oilers. Might there be more?
While McLeod’s scoring totals have not been overly impressive, it must be conceded that he has not exactly been deployed with linemates who will inflate his totals. In fact, as McLeod excels as a transition attacker, as well as a playmaker, it is reasonable to assume that McLeod’s play would take well to some scoring talent. As a strong defensive presence, McLeod could stabilise some of the Oilers skill players as well.
If the Oilers are somehow able to retain the services of Nick Bjugstad, the vacancy left behind at third line centre would be adequately filled. Although McLeod and Foegele posted such strong results together, hindsight might suggest that the Oilers might have been better served promoting McLeod to the top six in the playoffs over Bjugstad.
While McLeod doesn’t have the shooting talent that might be coveted, his playmaking abilities and defence could make a lot of sense on a line with Draisaitl and Kane, or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman. There might be enough offence for McLeod to be a serviceable stopgap in the top six.
An RFA, McLeod is likely to cost less against the cap than Yamamoto does. In fact, if promoting McLeod is the call, re-signing Bjugstad is likely to be less expensive than Yamamoto as well. While perhaps not the flashiest or highest upside option, McLeod will likely get a few opportunities to pinch up in the lineup next season.
Is Lavoie ready for the NHL?
A mercurial prospect, Raphael Lavoie has had his share of ups and downs since being selected by the Oilers in the second round of the 2019 draft. After leaving Junior, Lavoie tore up the Allsvenskan in 2020–21.
Lavoie crashed back down to earth in the AHL in 2021–22, mixing in bunches of points between long dry spells in production. With a similarly slow start to 2022–23, hope for Lavoie was dwindling until something changed. Once the calendar flipped to 2023, Lavoie became a force in the AHL, producing consistently. Whichever line Lavoie was deployed on became the Bakersfield Condors top line.
In all it was a fantastic turn for Lavoie’s development, but the path ahead is an even steeper one. With size, speed, skilled hands, and a strong shot Lavoie seems to have all the requisite talents, so hopefully whatever mental change occurred for Lavoie carries upward to the next level. Lavoie won’t be afforded as much time to figure things out in the NHL as he did in the AHL, or at least not as a member of the Oilers. Regardless, this journey starts with a strong training camp, as Lavoie still has to prove he is worthy of an NHL stint, sure to be a focal point heading into the preseason.
Given his age and production, Lavoie does not necessarily project as a top six forward. That being said, perhaps his observable talent, combined with production that was more uneven than unfit, Lavoie could be something of an outlier here. There is a chance that Lavoie is exactly the offensive flair the Oilers are looking for, even if he operates as more of an offensive specialist as opposed to earning top six minutes outright. This chance is not likely to be sufficient for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations to depend on, at least on its own, but it exists nonetheless.
Bourgault presenting himself as an option
Xavier Bourgault finished his rookie professional season as an all around contributor to the Condors middle six forwards. Seeing some time on the penalty kill as well as the power play, Bourgault projects to be an effective player in all facets of the game.
The Oilers first-round pick in 2021, Bourgault is an effective support passer who is able to find quiet spots in the slot where an accurate shot and quick release can be deadly. Bourgault has the hockey sense to navigate traffic with and without the puck. Stylistically, Bourgault seems to fit the Oilers needs as someone who might theoretically boost the top six defensively and with respect to shooting talent.
In general, there should be some hype across Oil Country for Bourgault’s NHL arrival, the question is more so on if the time for that is upon us. Bourgault managed 13 goals and 34 points across 62 AHL games this season. Since being drafted, any concerns with Bourgault’s production have been about relying on his linemates for offence. In Junior, Bourgault had Mavrik Bourque, a trend we saw carry over to this season where Bourgault scored most of his points while on a line with Raphael Lavoie.
There is still some hope that Bourgault can make the jump to being a top six NHL forward by the end of next season, despite it being a big step from where he is now. Due to his complementary off-puck style of offence, Bourgault might be well suited to supporting more puck dominant linemates. Time will tell how much Bourgault’s game can grow over the summer, but the most likely course of action might see him start the season in the AHL. If Bourgault can show his game has improved he might be worthy of a mid season call up.
Like Holloway, Bourgault might have some viability as a responsible bottom six forward. Building confidence by starting in the AHL might be the best case scenario for Bourgault to hit the ground running in the NHL, where he might play a more limited role lower in the lineup. It is a lot to put on Bourgault’s plate as a young player who has yet to play an NHL game, especially on a contending team with a need in the top six, but the fact that such is in the realm of possibility is exciting. All eyes should be on Bourgault in next season’s training camp.
Beryozkin as an unexpected player
Maxim Beryozkin is not often discussed in the Oilers offseason plans, but the winger presents an interesting twist on the Oilers prospect pipeline. Beryozkin is a bit older for a prospect, entering his age 22 season, but is already producing at a high level, with 26 points in 52 KHL games over the 2022–23 season.
Beryozkin has a combination of size and skill. He doesn’t necessarily throw his weight around as a physical force, but Beryozkin isn’t afraid to succeed in contested ice. Beryozkin has the tools to be an effective forechecker, closing gaps on opposing defencemen and creating dangerous offensive opportunities off of those turnovers.
Beryozkin is a dangerous player with the puck. Off of the rush he cuts laterally into the middle of the ice. Though his shot is of a good quality, Beryozkin is able to find teammates as passing lanes are opened up by his attacking the middle. With some capabilities and willingness, Beryozkin is a capable net front scorer, able to box out defenders with his size and make the most of the loose pucks with his skill.
Beryozkin might well be an obvious candidate to fill in this top six role were he not under contract by his KHL team through the 2023–24 season. Whenever, if ever, Beryozkin decides to come to North America he has proven enough to forgo any AHL seasoning. We should expect to hear more of his name as the 2024–25 season draws nearer, but as it stands Oilers fans should start to be intrigued by the potential of adding a player with a legitimate shot at a top nine forward role. At the very least, any progress in Beryozkin’s development next season would only serve to amplify the hype.
Outside help
With a number of extensions still unsigned, most notably that of Evan Bouchard, it is difficult to predict exactly how much cap space the Oilers will have to work with. While names rumoured to be on the trading block league wide, such as bonafide sniper Alex Debrincat or power forward Josh Anderson, might be tantalising in concept, in practice such a large addition would be highly unlikely. So too might be the cost of signing a player that has a higher upside than the internal candidates the Oilers have in-house.
While anything can happen in the offseason, the Oilers are likely to look inwards for most of their answers heading into next season.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
