With a dramatic Game 7 win against the Vancouver Canucks, the Edmonton Oilers are on to the Western Conference Final. Waiting for them are the Dallas Stars, a formidable opponent who have already defeated the Vegas Golden Knights and the Colorado Avalanche on their playoff journey here.
The Stars check off just about every item one might have on a list of criteria that contenders must possess. Let’s take a deeper look at the Stars, their players, and what should be expected in the series ahead for the Oilers.
Forwards
Projected lines
Robertson — Hintz — Pavelski
Benn — Johnston — Stankoven
Marchment — Seguin — Duchene
Steel — Faksa — Smith
Extras: Dadonov, Dellandrea
While lacking the true star power of the Oilers, the Stars have a great depth of capable forwards. Boasting eight forwards who reached 60 points in the regular season, the Stars are as deep a forward group as the NHL has to offer. The group is far from one dimensional, with an array of talents and experiences at their disposal. The regular season production was fairly evenly spread, but these players are all intersecting on different career trajectories. In discussing them, it might be simplest to group these players into groups corresponding with their ages.
Jason Robertson might be considered the standout, though he has ample competition for the mantle of Stars best forward. Robertson might have had a down year production wise, but he is firmly in his prime years now. Roope Hintz has missed some time in the playoffs, but is a force whenever in the lineup. Mason Marchment isn’t quite the player as Robertson and Hintz, but has delivered another vintage year along the winding journey of his career.
The Stars have a contingent of older players, former All-Stars who have been able to age gracefully thanks to a strong supporting cast. Joe Pavelski, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Matt Duchene might not be able to power a team to victory as the focal point, but all are still quality contributors.
The third group is made up of younger players, still growing into who they might become. With Roberston’s production down this season, it is Wyatt Johnston who is increasingly seen as the Stars most dangerous scoring threat. Logan Stankoven was called up towards the end of the regular season, and has already proven to be ready for this moment as a relied upon forward. Stanley Cup winners often have youthful contributors, as their energy might better withstand the attrition of the NHL playoffs, and of course their cap hits remaining so small. Johnston and Stankoven give the Stars an aura, an element of unpredictability, the chance at a higher upside.
Of course Radek Faksa, Sam Steel, Evgenii Dadonov, and even Ty Dellandrea are stable depth who might play further up the lineup on lesser NHL teams. In all, it would be virtually impossible to make a bad lineup with this roster of forwards.
The Stars often pair Robertson and Pavelski together, both with deft puck skills, hand eye coordination, playmaking vision, and responsible dispositions. Usually, Hintz will be their centre, adding an element of speed that his wingers appreciate. Marchment is physical and has enough scoring touch to make a good winger for Seguin. Benn is experienced, physical, and still skilled enough to have some synergy with Johnston and Stankoven.
Defence
Projected pairings
Harley — Heiskanen
Lindell — Tanev
Suter — Hakanpaa
Extras: Lundqvist, Petrovic
On a smaller scale, the same layering of age groups can be seen on the Stars back end. Miro Heiskanen isn’t the point producer that many Norris Trophy candidates are, but is every bit as worthy regardless. The Stars will lean on Heiskanen a lot, but he is far from alone in his high level contributions to the Stars. Thomas Harley has come into his own this season, thriving in top minutes alongside Heiskanen. Harley is big and mobile, a reliable contributor on both sides of the puck. Harley is not being babysat, he is deserving of this usage on his own merit and a significant contributor to the pairing’s success.
Esa Lindell and Chris Tanev are older, but are still foundational to the Stars success. This pairing has a distinctly defensive lean to it, and will be tasked with a lot of the dirty work. Tanev is a singularly talented player, thriving in old-school archetypes while still being an effective breakout passer. Ryan Suter is also a well established veteran, though one waning in his effectiveness. Prior to Harley’s coming of age, Suter was bemoaned by corners of Stars fans, overtaxed in a top four role. Suter still finds himself useful, holding down the Stars third pairing while others rotate in and out for injury or stylistic purposes. Jani Hakanpaa is considered day to day, and would be the choice at full health.
While the blueline is quite strong as a whole, the Stars rely heavily on Harley and Heiskanen. It is not quite as deep as the forward group, for example, but there is enough to work with, and some other options should they choose to shuffle their pairings through the series. Needless to say their opponents will be looking to wear down Harley and Heiskanen, though that task is easier said than done.
Power play
The Stars are able to generate a ton of shots from the slot on the power play. Robertson, Pavelski, Benn, and Hintz are all able to find or create space in the middle of the ice, shots, tips, and rebounds. Wyatt Johnston rounds out the top unit in Hintz’s absence, a spot he might not easily relinquish. Seguin is still an effective player in the bumper and hold down the second unit with Duchene, Marchment, and recently, Stankoven. The Stars personnel can rotate in and out of each other’s spots. Thanks to their forward depth the Stars are fairly comfortable rolling out their second unit. While generating chances from high danger areas is to be expected, the Stars do a great job in being able to generate those in different ways.
Heiskanen seems to be the most irreplaceable, a smooth skater who can join the rush or gain the zone; he will creep in off the blueline as a shooting threat from the flank. In general, this versatility makes the Stars difficult to shut down, as power play Coach Steve Spott tries to keep the unit one step ahead of the opposition. While at times the power play can sputter, like most every power play does, the Stars have a formidable power play.
In fact, the Stars saw great power play success during the regular season series with the Oilers, going 4/8 in the three games between the teams. Granted, the Oilers power play has been improving all season, and will now have time to scheme more specifically against the Stars power play. It should be a tall task, as the Stars were 6th in efficiency during the regular season. If the Oilers want to retain the advantage their power play affords them, they have to be able to stifle this potent Stars power play.
Penalty kill
The Stars boasted a top 10 penalty killing unit during the regular season as well, killing off 82% which was good for eighth league-wide. One would assume that the Stars penalty kill is in top form since adding Tanev before the trade deadline. Tanev and Lindell will play top minutes on the back end, while Suter and Hakanpaa are the ideal second pairing when fully healthy. The Stars will use Faksa and Steel as their main penalty killing forwards, while Seguin, Hintz, and even Johnston are most likely to take roles beyond them.
Interestingly, the Stars conceded a lot of shots from the point while a skater short during the regular season. Evan Bouchard might be primed to take advantage of this, or at least is enough of a threat that the Stars might be forced to adjust their penalty kill more than usual. The Oilers power play is one of the best units of all time, and so a great deal will be asked of this Stars unit.
Goalies
The most obvious advantage that the Stars have over the Oilers is in net, as Jake Oettinger is on the rise as one of the better goalies in the league. Oettinger did not have his finest regular season, though he has delivered strong play during this playoff run. After facing off against Cam Talbot, David Rittich, and the talented yet unproven Artur Silovs, Oettinger represents the biggest test the Oilers have seen in the playoffs. Oettinger is still young, but has stolen playoff series before. A vintage performance here against a prolific Oilers offence would be the springboard to superstardom should the Stars advance to the Cup Final.
Scott Wedgewood has been a solid backup this season, even outplaying Oettinger at times through the regular season, though clearly he is not the ideal option for the Stars. The Stars don’t necessarily have an obvious third string goalie, though such duties would likely fall to Matthew Murray, a 26-year-old who recorded a shutout this season in his only start after getting into three games the season prior. Unlike with Silovs for the Vancouver Canucks, the Stars would likely turn to their veteran backup, Wedgewood, instead of a high upside third option.
History versus the Oilers
While the Stars won the regular season series, the bigger concern for Oil Country is the success that the Stars power play had in those games. The goaltending is comfortably in the Stars favour, but it would be difficult to point to another area in which the advantage is so lopsided either way. The Stars have better forward depth, but the Oilers group is led by two of the best in playoff history, as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl continue their dominance. Both teams have a lot of experience having been among the league’s most consistent programs the past three seasons.
Both bluelines are led by Norris Trophy calibre defencemen, who have a lot to work with alongside. Harley and Tanev might be better than Darnell Nurse and Mattias Ekholm at this point, but the Oilers have the greater blueline depth beyond that. If the Oilers are to win, they must be able to control the special teams battle enough to offset the goaltending disparity.
It’s clear that the Stars will be favourites, but the Oilers have enough to pull off an upset. For most NHL teams, Conference Final appearances are rare. The Oilers return to the third round two seasons after losing to the eventual champion Colorado Avalanche, a far better team than they were at the time. Naturally, hearts across Oil Country will be hoping for a better outcome this time around.
Prediction: Stars in 7
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