With the Edmonton Oilers down 2–0 in the Stanley Cup Final, the question becomes what can be done to turn the series around, and specifically prevent going down 3–0, creating the almost impossible ability to make a comeback.
One lineup change that many Oilers fans would like to see, and have been asking for many times these playoffs, is to insert Sam Gagner in the lineup. The question is whether or not that is the correct decision. Here is why I think he should be.
The emotional/nostalgic reason
This is one of the biggest reasons, if not the biggest, that many fans are wanting Gagner back in the lineup.
Gagner has played parts of 10 seasons with the Oilers in his career, and is 22nd in games played by an Oilers with 570. He was a shining light after the Oilers fell from grace after the 2006 Stanley Cup run, finishing second in team scoring three times. His 327 career points as an Oiler is 22nd in team history, while his 211 assists are good for 17th. His 36 assists in his rookie season is third best in team history, as his his nine-game rookie point streak, and he has the longest rookie assist streak at eight games.
He also is tied for the Oilers record for points in a single game with 8 points on February 2, 2012.
Gagner had a lot of promise, especially after his rookie season, but never quite seemed to take the next step. Although in 2012–13, the second time during the Decade of Darkness that the Oilers almost had a chance to make the playoffs, he had a career best point per game percentage of 0.79, posting 38 points in 48 games during the lockout shortened season.
After being traded away in 2014, Gagner bounced around the league a bit, although he continued to produce around his normal pace.
He ended up returning in 2018–19 in a trade for much maligned winger Ryan Spooner. Gagner went on to score 10 points in his 25 games, a 0.4 points per game that was 8th best on the team that season.
His performance dipped a little the next season, and he ended up being traded away at the deadline, a move that many fans bemoaned.
Gagner then spent another three seasons away, before coming back to Edmonton again this year. After starting in the AHL, Gagner received a contract and came back with a bang, notching two goals in the third period of his first game to bring the Oilers on the brink of a comeback against the Dallas Stars.
Oilers fans have a soft spot for “Papa Oiler,” and believe you me, if Gagner were to suit up in Game 3, Rogers Place will absolutely blow the roof off cheering for him.
It appears that Gagner isn’t just an emotional catalyst for the fans though.
The Oilers posted this video of Oilers family members leaving messages of encouragement for the players (and somehow managed to sneak a ninja into my house who cuts onions every time I watch it):
By my count, approximately 43 seconds out of the 179 were from Gagner’s wife, or almost a quarter of it. Seems like a lot of time to dedicate to a player who has yet to play a game.
Daniel Nugent-Bowman of the Athletic had a good write-up on Gagner’s importance to the team as well.
Hockey is an emotional sport, and so even just using that emotional spark from inserting Gagner into the lineup could be a difference maker. And how much would the Oilers really be risking?
Last game, with Warren Foegele ejected early in the game, the Oilers still had two players below 10 minutes, and another one just over that time. In the Game 1 loss, six players played below 12 minutes.
So in terms of the affect on the ice time of other players, I’m not so sure that Gagner coming in would affect that all that much.
Scoring ability and performance
Gagner has scored 10 points in 28 games this season, but has only seen action in one game since the trade deadline, being the Oilers last game of the season when many regular players were scratched for some rest before the playoffs.
His 0.36 points per game in the regular season put him in the same company, if not a fair amount better, as many players who have seen regular time in this year’s playoffs, such as Ryan McLeod (0.37), Corey Perry (0.34), Sam Carrick (0.31), Dylan Holloway (0.24), Mattias Janmark, Derek Ryan, and Connor Brown (all at 0.17).
Granted, outside of McLeod and Holloway (and maybe Perry), those players aren’t necessarily in the lineup for scoring ability.
But when the story right now is scoring woes, then maybe a guy like Gagner should be looked at.
In the regular season, Gagner had the third best goals/60, fifth best points/60, fourth best shots/60, sixth best individual expected goals/60, and fourth best individual chances for/60. Sure, those stats will be skewed due to being a smaller sample size, especially when he didn’t score a single point in his last 8 games played.
The other thing to remember is that Evander Kane is obviously hurting pretty bad. While Kane does bring a toughness aspect that isn’t in Gagner’s forte, he is also counted on as an offensive producer. So if he is being prevented from that, having a player with an offensive touch can be a good one to have in the lineup to compensate.
At the end of the day, you can’t have a bottom of six of virtually no offensive production. And players like McLeod, Perry, and Foegele haven’t exactly been lighting it up defensively recently to make up for their dry spells.
Will Gagner get a chance?
Of course, at the end of the day it is up to Head Coach Kris Knoblauch to decide whether it benefits his team to insert Gagner for his first playoff game this year (and first career one as an Oiler).
Knoblauch hasn’t been shy about making big lineup moves. He benched Stuart Skinner for backup Calvin Pickard for two games in Round 2, and just last game scratched Cody Ceci. He also has scratched McLeod and Perry previously.
He also hasn’t seemed to have qualms about putting in rusty players. In addition to Pickard, he also put in Philip Broberg, the 22-year-old defenceman who only played 12 NHL regular season games this year, at a crucial point in the Western Conference Final.
Putting in Gagner can certainly mirror all the above decisions, so despite the fact that there are multiple players ahead of him on the depth chart that could be subbed in (such as Derek Ryan), it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that he turns to Gagner in this case.
Whether or not he does though, remains to be seen. But if the Oilers faithful had a vote, then Gagner should be making sure his skates are sharpened and sticks are taped.
