The Edmonton Oilers are at a very critical juncture of franchise history. Connor McDavid has two more guaranteed seasons under contract, Mike Babcock has been hired as head coach, and the need to capture the team’s sixth Stanley Cup has never been more pressing.
One fortunate development has been the emergence of younger talent to support McDavid and Leon and Draisaitl of the team, and no young player seems more poised to take a proper leap than Matt Savoie.
Why the Oilers need to lock up Savoie
Acquired in the Ryan McLeod trade, Savoie had a breakout season last year, scoring 14 goals and 31 points in 75 games, as well as establishing himself as perhaps the best penalty killer on the team. Savoie is entering the last year of his rookie contract, and while the Oilers don’t seem bothered about the lack of contract negotiations so far, Edmonton has already made a self-inflicted error regarding Savoie’s next extension, mainly the fact that it’s not signed yet.
The NHL’s salary cap jumped to $104M this season, and many teams used the extra money to lock up key young pieces. Buffalo signed Noah Östlund to an eight-year, $6.6M AAV deal, while Boston gave Fraser Minten a seven-year, $7.2M AAV contract. Östlund had 27 points last season, while Minten had 36, so Savoie’s 31 fits right in the middle. Just last summer, Carolina signed Logan Stankoven to an eight-year, $6M AAV deal, as he came off a 38-point, 78-game campaign at age 22. The trick to contending in the NHL to sign your young players before, or just after their breakout year.
The Oilers don’t have many options
Not only did the Oilers not do that, they can’t even offer an eight-year contract. The new CBA reduced the maximum term of contracts to seven years. Although Savoie is starting the season injured, if he comes back and produces at a similar, or likely higher level, the Oilers will suddenly be negotiating with a player who has more leverage. This will be in a cap market that’s only growing, with less years to spread the money across.
Now depending on his performance, Edmonton might need to talk Savoie into taking a more team-friendly deal. However, they were fully able to sign him to proper market value the year previous yet decided not to. If has a big year, say 25 goals and 50 points while continuing to excel on the penalty kill, the Oilers could be looking at paying closer to $8M when they could have easily had him for $6M. The most frustrating thing about this possibility is that Edmonton just went through a situation like this, and it cost them dearly.
Will the Oilers make the same mistake again?
Dylan Holloway was similarly unsigned after his rookie deal expired. The St. Louis Blues pounced, offer sheeting him to a two-year, $4.58M contract the Oilers declined to match due to a cap crunch. This past April, Holloway signed a five-year, $7.75M AAV extension with St. Louis after posting 114 points in 136 games. Savoie was even expected to replace Holloway internally after the latter signed the offer sheet. Now, Edmonton is dangerously close to letting the same scenario play out with Savoie going into his last season on his rookie deal.
Good young talent in the NHL is a very valuable asset. When you don’t have it, you spend most of your time looking for it, and when you find it, you keep it by any means necessary. The Oilers can’t afford to have a repeat of the Holloway situation happen with Savoie. Edmonton needs to sign him soon, before he has another great year and costs them more money than needed, or even prices himself out of Edmonton together.
Either scenario would be an unmitigated disaster, and one that was completely preventable. Signing Savoie to a market value deal now would save the Oilers a massive, massive headache compared to negotiating in the summer with the threat of an offer sheet looming.
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