As the Edmonton Oilers continue to hover in the muddy middle of the Western Conference, each passing day brings the gloom a shade darker. Every decision made will be under further scrutiny as the malaise grows longer. So long as the Oilers underachieve, such storylines will persist.
The flavour of the week comes in the form of Troy Stecher. Waived by the Oilers, Stecher has often led the Toronto Maple Leafs in ice time, coinciding with the Leafs winning more as well.
Did the Oilers make a mistake in letting Stecher go?
Benefit of the doubt?
One angle to try to look at the situation is based on asset management. Right defencemen, alongside centres and goaltenders, are seen as more valuable. Scarcity ensures that this will almost always be the case. Some might perceive the Oilers mistake as one of trying to pass Stecher through waivers instead of trying to trade him outright.
On one hand, Stecher is a known value. He has a lot of experience to draw from, and routinely finds himself earning more minutes the deeper the season goes. On top of his positional value, Stecher provides a lot of stylistic value as well. Stecher, unquestionably gives his best effort, sacrificing his body to make the less glorious plays required of winning. This includes a regular role on the penalty kill.
That said, Stecher is not perfect. After all, there is a reason he was not able to assert himself as a core piece to this point of his career. Stecher is undersized, particularly for a defenceman without high end offensive talents.
This is no surprise, as the Oilers got a long look at Stecher prior to waiving him. While he was in and out of the lineup, he found himself to be valuable as the games got bigger. Perhaps the Oilers got greedy, hoping that he would pass through waivers, and be able to be recalled down the line. Perhaps there were no takers in a trade situation.
As much as one might have hoped for a small trade return, there is no guarantee the Oilers had that option. Perhaps, him passing through waivers would have been more valuable than a late round pick. In either case, it is not as simple as saying Oilers GM Stan Bowman made a mistake for not trading Stecher.
Uptick in his production
Another angle here is due to how well Stecher has performed with the Leafs. Missing their top two right handed defencemen, the Leafs had a huge need for an additional right shot who could provide a semblance of NHL level play. Stecher, of course, fits the bill.
Since then, Stecher has taken off, playing over 22 minutes four times for the Leafs. This includes leading the team in icetime for some of those games. This has coincided with some better results for the Leafs, highlighting his contributions. In truth, this might be one of the best two week stretches of Stecher’s NHL career.
While he should not be expected to keep up these recent results, it could be that circumstance has aligned for Stecher. Like the Oilers, the Leafs have a lot of size on their blueline, which does help his case. Too many small defencemen on the same blueline would become structurally problematic.
The Leafs, unlike the Oilers, do not have as much offensive talent on their blueline. This has led to Leafs fans being pleasantly surprised with Stecher’s ability to advance the puck, something that rarely came up during his time with the Oilers. Though he had a lot of opportunities to play in the top-four for the Oilers, the fit might not have been as necessary.
Another reason for the uptick might come from within. Stecher would not be happy to get waived, and might have seen his NHL career in jeopardy. Though he has always given his best effort, there is a certain desperation that cannot be simulated. Stecher is smart, experienced, and responsible, but the mortality of his career might have helped him play with a bit more reckless abandon.
He should be able to trust himself, and has done well to come out swinging. His excellent performance with the Leafs might even extend his career. Despite his strong play of late, it is hard to fault the Oilers for holding Stecher back. His places with the Oilers and Leafs come with entirely different circumstances.
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Leftovers from the waive
Ultimately, the Oilers chose to waive Stecher over other players. Perhaps some convolution might see the Oilers waiving a forward instead, but the more appropriate comparison is to other defencemen.
In particular, Stecher was battling with two other right shots for icetime, Ty Emberson and Alec Regula. Both are younger than Stecher, providing more upside in the present and the future. Theoretically, Stecher would provide more stability in the here and now, as was the case for most of their overlapping time in Edmonton.
Emberson, who played under Coach Kris Knoblauch in the AHL, might have more faith from his head coach. Emberson did well to hold down a regular spot for much last season, a step forward in his career. Though he was scratched in favour of Stecher last season, the vector of improvement is notable.
Emberson has shown flashes of continued improvement this season. While partner Brett Kulak seems less impactful than his strong work over the past two seasons, Emberson’s growth might help offset things. There is certainly a chance that the best is yet to come for Emberson, and that the Oilers might benefit from his services for years to come.
Meanwhile, Regula presents a much less known commodity. There is a lot to like, his size giving him a chance to be an effective in zone defender, while his skating and puck skills present even more offensive potential. Regula’s early results have been conflicting, strong possession stats but poor goal differentials. His injury history is even more concerning, as Regula has missed a lot of time due over the past few seasons, including most of last season.
Regula has been playing with Darnell Nurse, though his icetime has been limited over the start of the season despite how the lineup is written out. Especially if he can stay healthy, there is little doubt that Regula’s best hockey is still ahead of him.
The Oilers clearly see a lot in Emberson and Regula. With the Oilers slow start, the team clearly felt that both offered more than Stecher at that moment. Without the leg up in the present, Stecher’s spot in the lineup was overtaken. If either of Emberson or Regula can impress with some growth the pain of losing Stecher will be eased.
Now with Stecher playing so well with the Leafs, some might criticize the decision to waive him. Given the upside of Emberson and Regula, including the fact that Knoblauch was trusting them over Stecher in the moment, it makes sense how the Oilers reached their decision.
Overall feelings on Stecher’s move
Though the sight of Stecher thriving in a new locale might be tough, it is difficult to be wholly critical of the Oilers navigating the situation. Perhaps the lesson to mournful fans is to enjoy the moments as they happen. Stecher is a likeable underdog, and provided the Oilers with a great deal of stability at a cheap cap cost. While he was not a star with the Oilers, there is so much to like about how he plays the game.
It is great news for Stecher that he seems to have found new life with the Leafs, and for disappointed Oilers fans there can at least be some solace in that. It is much healthier to share in the joy of others than to stir in the negativity of what likely could have never happened had Stecher remained with the Oilers.
Stetcher is a valuable piece as a #7 Dman that can play up in the lineup for injuries. I knew 109% when they waived him that he would be picked up and did wish we had seen a trade instead. Both Regula and Emberson are bigger, younger, and have higher upside that Stetcher. I was ok losing him as they were going to lose somebody, but would have preferred an asset coming back