In the relative quiet of the offseason, speculation has space to flourish. Little action is expected until September, where at the very least some contracts and PTOs might start to emerge. For the most part, the stage of the upcoming season is set.
The Edmonton Oilers enter as contenders, looking to finish off the job in what would be a third straight trip to the Stanley Cup Final. The team is reshuffled, admirably making an effort to incorporate some youth back into the organization. There is a lot to like about the Oilers on paper, but for many the obvious area of improvement lies in net.
The goalie market has been slow, as there are only so many options and teams tread carefully. There has been some movement around the league, but the Oilers have clearly prioritized other positions. Speculation continues to swirl, and the new layout of the league might see some new trade options take shape.
Enter Sebastian Cossa and the Detroit Red Wings. From the Oilers side the logic is smart, a young, tall, highly touted, talented, and improving goalie, knocking on the door of an NHL role. From the Wings side, the picture might be more blurry.
Let’s take a look at what a deal might look like for either side and assess the likelihood of it happening.
Is Cossa ready for the NHL?
A former Edmonton Oil King, Cossa was a highly touted prospect. At the time of his draft Cossa was seen as more raw, usually ranked behind fellow 2021 first-round pick Jesper Wallstedt. While Wallstedt does have a few more NHL appearances to this point, neither young goalie has truly taken hold of a regular spot.
The 2021 draft class as a whole is still coming into its own, and perhaps goalies are deserving of extra patience. As good as Cossa has been, playing at least 40 AHL games in back-to-back seasons, a true NHL goalie is no guarantee. Either way, Cossa does seem to have a very promising shot at reaching the next level.
Cossa is used to a relatively large workload, meaning it is way too optimistic to think that he should be a true starter next season. With a strong camp he could reaffirm his strong work so far, which earned a win in his one and only game in relief last season. If he continues to remain composed he might earn a bit more leash in injury call ups for the Wings this season.
Given the history of John Gibson, and the age of Cam Talbot, it is likely that Cossa will be called up at times next season. A good year would see him succeed in about 15 games this season, positioning himself for a reasonable shot at a role in a tandem in 2026–27.
The dream for the Oilers
Prospectively, if the Oilers acquired Cossa he would be the goalie of the future. Being waiver exempt makes him valuable in a sense, and the Oilers might even divide to keep him in the AHL to start the season. Perhaps Cossa might be ready to push Calvin Pickard for the backup role outright, but it might be foolish to gamble. The Oilers have relied on a tandem, and the team clearly trusts Pickard as a backup.
Instead, some emergency NHL time would be nice for Cossa, allowing him to get his foot in the door. A long term injury replacement could see Cossa cement a role. It is entirely possible that Cossa is ready to take this step, but things might not be so smooth. A lot of things will have to go right for Cossa to be an option in the playoffs this season, never mind the starter who will take them one step further.
It does throw a wrench into the Oilers already crowded goalie position, headlined by Samuel Jonsson who is, optimistically, a year away from where Cossa is now. In all likelihood the Cossa acquisition would be a lot more about the future than it would about this season. Following this, it would be unexpected for the Oilers to take away any chances from this season’s team to acquire him, given that it is also the last season of Connor McDavid’s contract.
As a benchmark, the Calgary Flames’ Dustin Wolf is about a year and a half older than Cossa. Over the course of last season, Wolf slowly took over as the Flames starter. This performance makes Wolf one of the best young goalies in the league. Cossa doing so a year and a half later puts him deep in the playoffs.
Alas, stranger things have happened, but it is brazen to expect him to take over an NHL starting role so quickly. The best dream ends with the Oilers winning the Stanley Cup, and in this case with Cossa leading the way as the starter. More realistically, Cossa would be ready to hold down a backup job and slowly earn more usage over the next few seasons.
The burden of value
While picks and prospects and their respective values are one thing, it is just part of the equation. Perhaps the Oilers have enough draft and prospect capital to try to equal Cossa in a vacuum, the Red Wings will operate within the context of their own interests. Perhaps Beau Akey, or Maxim Beryozkin, or some bouquet of draft picks have value in some sense, but do they help the Wings more than Cossa does?
As mentioned, the Wings are inherently more predisposed to incurring injuries to their goalies than the Oilers are. Cossa has been their AHL starter for two seasons in a row now, comfortably in a third strong spot to start training camp. Although some prefer fellow prospect Trey Augustine, he is two years younger than Cossa, and still playing in the NCAA. The Wings will need three goalies this season, and are looking to start turning the corner towards contention. If the Wings no longer believe in Cossa it would be surprising, as he seems to be developing nicely.
In short, the only impetus for the Wings trading Cossa is to improve their team this season. The Wings have built a strong prospect pool over the years, and have a lot of potential on the horizon. Moreover, with both teams looking to maximize this season, it is highly unlikely that the Oilers would be willing to part with anything of that nature.
The Oilers could try to use futures. Beau Akey (20), for example, will be among Antti Tuomisto (24), Anton Johansson (21), and Axel Sandin-Pellikka (20), as promising right hand shots looking to push upwards. Behind young NHLers on the right side, Moritz Seider and Jacob Bernard-Docker, Akey is lost in the depth. Beryozkin cannot come to the NHL for two more seasons, and a late first-round pick next season only means so much to the Wings at this point.
The Wings are likely looking for a winger who can add to their top-six forward group. Marco Kasper seems to be ready to take on a top centre role behind Dylan Larkin, a huge step. Smaller forwards like Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat, and Patrick Kane provide skill, but more is needed. Perhaps Elmer Soderblom or Michael Rasmussen are ready to step into these roles, providing competition. This player would have to be some combination of good now, but able to be a part of the team for a while too. While prospects Michael Brandsegg-Nygard and Ethan Bear are further away, Carter Mazur, Nate Danielson, or Amedeus Lombardi might be ready to support the team this season.
Is it possible to add Cossa?
While the idea of adding a top end young goalie is understandably enticing to Oilers fans, it is difficult to envision a deal between the Oilers and Red Wings at this point. Down the line the circumstances around the two teams might change more favourably, and the Oilers would be wise to keep an eye on Cossa should that time come.
For now, Cossa is exactly where the Wings want and need him. The Wings should be looking to upgrade their team in a competitive Atlantic Division, but have much more efficient means of doing so. If they are to include Cossa in a deal, it should be as part of a package to seriously upgrade their core, not to sell low for futures and spare parts.
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