With the amount of insider speculation on the moves that were supposed to have been made over the draft and opening of free agency, things turned out extremely quiet. Not only did the free agent class end up being weak, but many of the trades and alluded to big deals in the works never actually happened.
The Edmonton Oilers were no exception to that. General Manager Stan Bowman, in his first full offseason in the position, has kept things fairly low key this far. A few small trades for draft picks and cap space, notably sending out Evander Kane and Viktor Arvidsson, and mostly signings to (hopefully) improve the team’s depth.
Is this really what the team needs, however? These Oilers have fallen just short of the Stanley Cup two years in a row. The roster and core have largely stayed the same. Notably, the same roster holes have caused their demise for many consecutive seasons now. Shouldn’t, at a certain point, changes be made or a bigger splash to meaningfully improve the roster take place?
There are plenty of reasons to think that, and they are valid. One can only try the same things so many times in a row before we start looking at them funny. What’s that definition of insanity? Trying the same thing over and over again, getting the same result, but expecting a different one?
On the other hand, are there really any meaningful moves this team could have realistically made that would have shaken things up? Do we really want to make a big move for the sake of making a big move and end up with another boat anchor of a contract locked in when this team already can barely fit a full roster in the salary cap?
All things considered, the quiet start to free agency is a blessing in disguise.
The case for a big splash
It certainly seems appealing, anyways. A huge play for a big name player that will hopefully change the fortunes of this team so they can finally hoist the Stanley Cup. A star player who will actually properly fill the holes that are on this roster. I know we were secretly holding out hope for a big trade for Ilya Sorokin or Jeremy Swayman, or a splash in the free agent market for Nikolaj Ehlers.
But alas, that was not in the cards. And it might be a missed opportunity. This team has been let down in the playoffs for four seasons in a row by the same problematic spots in the lineup. Inability to reliably score, the Darnell Nurse pairing, and goaltending.
The situation isn’t as easy to solve as just doing something, however. It does require a massive part of this team’s core to agree to leave. From the sounds of it, Nurse was asked about being willing to play elsewhere, to which he declined as is his right with a no-movement clause. A hypothetical trade of Nurse could have been the moving piece that would solve the weakness on his pairing, be combined in a package to bring in a big name goalie, and possibly even free up the cap space to have made a play on a legit scoring winger to pair alongside Leon Draisaitl.
What ended up happening was the team making yet another attempt at finding a random mid-level winger with a limited ceiling to try and plug holes. In other words, the same thing that they’ve been doing for nearly a decade to try and hope that one of the random wingers they cycle through will work.
Is that truly enough? Trying the same thing again? As it stands, the Oilers are set to enter the next season with the same goaltending tandem (though it does seem they are looking to add a stronger back-up), the same defence, and about three or four changes at forward, mostly in depth/support roles.
We have just seen the Toronto Maple Leafs make a massive change to the core of their team, albeit a forced one, with Mitch Marner choosing not to re-sign, to try and break through the upper barrier they’ve reached. For years, the Maple Leafs tried a similar strategy of repeatedly changing the same parts of the lineup to no additional success. Although the results of this change are yet to be seen, and Toronto did not add any players that are anywhere near Marner’s calibre, it is the type of change to shake things up to reset the direction of the team.
In short, trying the same thing time and time again eventually has to run its course. It has to hit a point where it is clear this version of the team is not quite what it needs to be. And given the circumstances of the Oilers’ cap situation, a big splash involving a trade of a core member of this team is the only way to significantly make a change.
The case for the quiet, calculated approach
Change for the sake of change. That sentence can, and has in online Oilers discourse this offseason, been used to describe the mindset of making a big move. We have a team that has made the Stanley Cup Final in two consecutive seasons and the Conference Final in three of the last four. This is clearly a good enough roster to be one of the most successful teams in the league over that span. It is just a matter of making intentional, direct, and targeted moves to affect specific points on the roster, rather than making massive overhauls to the roster.
Heading into this free agency season, there was a notable lack of high-end talent. Most of the big names that were pending free agents had already signed before July 1. Combining this with the anticipated steep rise in the salary cap over the coming years, you have a prime situation for players to be vastly overpaid. The Oilers cannot afford to overpay more players and end up with another Milan Lucic signing. That is a primary argument against pursuing a big splash.
One player that was closely linked to Edmonton in the lead-up to July one was Brock Boeser. A perfectly fine hockey player, but he is one-dimensional, primarily being a scorer with some improving play driving abilities in recent seasons, and is quite ineffective in many other facets of the game.
Boeser eventually re-signed in Vancouver at a $7.25M AAV. That is a number that would have been difficult, if not impossible, for the Oilers to fit in. For a player who is a consistent 20- to 25-goal, 50-point player. With the exception of the 2023–24 season that the Canucks overperformed as a whole and Boeser had 40 goals.
The affordability of bigger name players made the pursuit of the quieter offseason the only real option. And given the propensity to overpay free agents in these types of situations out of desperation, it potentially saved the Oilers from another bad contract.
Instead, what GM Bowman and his team have done is tried a more direct and targeted approach to improving the team. After concluding his second season as head coach, Kris Knoblauch has begun working on an extension to stay in Edmonton for longer. And, the organization has begun the search for new assistant coaches to give Knoblauch his own staff.
The significance of this falls mostly on the goaltending coach position, where Dustin Schwartz’s controversial tenure in Edmonton appears to have come to an end. After a decade of zero success stories in the crease for the Oilers, it is clearly time for a change. Although we as fans are calling for changes in net after the Oilers had among the worst team save percentages in the Stanley Cup Final in decades, the front office feels otherwise.
A combination of a weak goalie market, confidence in the existing players, and hope that an organizational philosophy change have led to the offseason plan to be retaining and retraining the current tandem, with a possible change at backup.
Not making a rushed decision to panic acquire players has helped ensure that those being brought in are not immediately overpaid. Also, it allows the front office to target players they can acquire for cheap. For example, the recent trade for Isaac Howard. Howard’s pedigree right now, as a Hobey Baker winner and rising prospect, may have exceeded his draft positioning, with him being the 31st overall pick in 2022. But, he did not want to sign in Tampa Bay and effectively limited what the Lightning would be able to trade him for.
The Oilers were then able to acquire Howard, who projects to be a top-six forward immediately, for Sam O’Reilly, the 32nd overall pick in 2024 and who projects to be a third-line centre in two or three seasons. This is the type of small, calculated move that only comes with being selective over where one picks and chooses and shows better asset management than we’ve seen in recent years on this team and around the league.
Rather than make a big move on a player who is either not an actual improvement, would cause more cap issues on an already strapped team, or would be unlikely even to be regularly healthy enough to make an impact, the front office has taken a different approach for the time being.
Why the quiet offseason was the correct play
All things considered, Bowman and his team have navigated this offseason adequately. They have avoided making panic moves that cost a lot either in assets in a trade or in cap space. They have accomplished what they wanted to do with the roster, making it younger and faster, by letting some older players walk while bringing in faster and/or younger players like Andrew Mangiapane and Isaac Howard.
Although a big shake-up feels good and exciting in the moment, the chances of the Oilers actually being able to make this happen are slim to none. With a restrictive cap situation and many players holding no-trade or no-movement clauses, the core of the team is here to stay. And is a big change really necessary? Yes, the team has lost in the Stanley Cup Final in two consecutive seasons. But also, the team has made it to the Stanley Cup Final in two consecutive seasons. This wasn’t a case of needing a complete rework like some other teams.
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