If you follow the patterns of sports betting futures markets, you will notice that after a season-ending event, such as the Stanley Cup Final, major sportsbooks tend to rush out the odds for the next season. Getting those odds out early is an effective marketing ploy, allowing the information to be picked up by the wider sports media and report on which teams are predicted to do well again. It’s common in all sports, not just NHL.
As you might expect, the two teams that compete in the Final tend to fill the top spots in the betting markets for the next season. So, for example, the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs were installed as favorites for Super Bowl LX after competing for Super Bowl LIX. It is not always the case. For instance, when there is an underdog perceived as being weaker despite success (like the NBA’s Indiana Pacers right now), but by and large, the most likely outcome is that the two participants in a final will be installed again as the co-favorites.
Panthers and Oilers were preseason favorites
Of course, we know that a lot can change in league offseasons, and it is the case that sportsbooks will adjust their odds based on trades, free agency, drafts, injuries, etc., but we also know that the sportsbooks installed the Oilers and Panthers as the market leaders in the Stanley Cup odds before the season started, and that prediction was proven right.
Yet, students of NHL history will know that Stanley Cup rematches are relatively rare. This 2025 rematch is the first since 2009 and the 11th overall in almost 100 years of professional ice hockey. There is, as such, a sense of the illogical when regularly putting the previous year’s finalists in as favorites – and, again, we stress it does not happen all the time – for the next one when it only happens about once a decade on average.
Now, there are certainly caveats. For a start, while the Oilers and Panthers started as preseason favorites, neither of those teams had the best record across the regular season. Moreover, other teams were catching the eye as potentially better contenders, which meant that the sportsbooks changed course throughout the season. As an example, in mid-April, just as the Playoffs were about to begin, the Dallas Stars were tagged as outright favorites for the 2025 Stanley Cup.
Playoff experience can help tip the balance
We know, of course, that the Oilers dismantled the Stars in the Conference Finals, just as the Panthers brushed aside another favorite, the Carolina Hurricanes, on the other side of the bracket. Of course, none of that should come as a complete shock. Playoff experience counts for a lot in NHL – and other sports – and both the Panthers and Oilers retained the core elements of two teams that went all the way the year before.
So, while rematches are rare on paper, the ingredients were plain to see this year. You can be almost certain that both the Oilers and Panthers will be installed as favorites in the 2026 Stanley Cup odds the moment this one ends. It might change across the coming month, but we cannot help but wonder what the chances are that the teams will meet again in the Stanley Cup Final next year.
