First periods of games can set the tone for the rest of the night a lot of times. Or, in many cases, they can act as a feeling-out process for a team. It can help a team get their mind and legs going, and then take over the final two frames (and sometimes overtime) for the evening.
The Edmonton Oilers have always been the latter, as shown by how their best regular season period was the second. They were one of the best teams in second-period scoring all season long. However, that advantage has disappeared in the Stanley Cup Final, and highlighted a glaring issue: first periods.
The Florida Panthers so far own a convincing 11–4 goals edge in five first-period this series. The Oilers have only held a lead after one of them (3–2 in Game 2), and the Panthers have scored multiple times in every first period. The strong starts from Florida are a huge reason why they hold the series lead heading into Game 6, and not Edmonton. This has to be something the Oilers do better at tonight.
When Florida gets a solid lead, it (usually) ends well for them
There have been five first periods, as mentioned, and generally they see the Oilers fall behind to start a game. In Games 1 and 2, it wasn’t so dire; the Oilers were only down 2–1 after 20 minutes in Game 1, and kept it close long enough for an overtime win. Game 2’s first period was by far the wildest, and ended with the Oilers ahead by a goal.
Games 3 through 5 tell different stories, however. 2–0, 3–0, and 2–0 through 20 minutes in those games, and only one successful comeback (somehow not after either 2–0 start). The Panthers have adjusted well, played a sound defensive game of their own, and let rush chances and power play chances come to them for their source of early scoring.
The main takeaway here is that the Oilers can’t play tentatively. Getting into Florida netminder Sergei Bobrovsky’s head early is imperative to success. Additionally, either the rush chances have to be taken away from the Panthers, or the Oilers must focus on scoring goals, which has been their strength. When all else fails, rely on what you do best to succeed.
The defence’s shortcomings and/or late starts to games
One thing of note is that, a lot of times this series, a case could be made for the Oilers being fortunate to only trail by two goals. The defence have given Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard little help at times, particularly Skinner in Game 4. In Game 5, we got a prime example of forwards causing a defensive collapse, courtesy of Vasily Podkolzin and Brad Marchand:
Games 2 and 3 each featured early Panthers goals that immediately put the Oilers into catch-up mode. It was Sam Bennett 2:07 into Game 2, and Marchand a paltry 56 seconds into Game 3. In the case of Game 3, Marchand’s opening-minute goal set the tone for the rest of the night. It might have also been a clue as to why John Klingberg was scratched after Game 3, as he was unable to address the Marchand danger.
And just on top of that, this is the opening goal of Game 4. Note the time of the goal, and the fact the Oilers defence had already allowed ten shots on Skinner. Florida’s notorious Matthew Tkachuk finally solved Skinner on shot 11, and at that point, the Panthers were on a 57-shot pace per 60 minutes. It may have been a five-on-three scenario, but you have to be at least a bit aggressive in penalty killing.
The Oilers have to find a way to keep Florida’s offence away from the slot area in their own zone. Clearing net-front traffic would also be a good idea, among others.
Fancy stats offer some solutions
In the game of hockey, there can be specific situations where it’s better to defend rather than attack, or attack rather than defend. The best way to figure this out can often be with the “expected goals” advanced statistic. With a higher xG player, you want to keep them out of your zone, or at least to the perimeter. Lower xG players are prime targets for your offensive attack.
For this exercise, we’ll leave out the aberration (and abomination) that was Game 3. We’ll look at the expected goal charts for Games 1, 2, 4, and 5. The latter-most game will solely be for studying the Panthers, as no Oiler had a great night.
If it wasn’t already obvious, the Oilers have to do a better job defending Marchand, as he has consistently been 60% or better in xG this series. Anton Lundell, though not the Panthers’ best scorer, is another one to not attack against. And after slow starts to the series, Bennett and Tkachuk are going to require some more defensive attention.
The Panthers’ defence is pretty solid too, with Dmitry Kulikov and Nate Schmidt having fantastic series. Seth Jones and Niko Mikkola have been mostly solid, with a bad game each mixed in there.
The targets, however, also become obvious. Maybe Brooks Koepka was on to something in 2023, because Aaron Ekblad has mostly not been having a great series. The fourth line of Jonah Gadjovich, AJ Greer, and Tomas Nosek should be the line the Oilers focus on getting their offence out against as quickly as possible. Winning more battles against those players early will likely be the key to getting more first-period goals for the team.
What’s the message for the first period tonight?
Plain and simple. Don’t give the Panthers rush or slot chances, and clear the way for whichever Oilers goalie is in net tonight to be able to see the puck. Additionally, go on the attack against Florida’s weak links, and get to Bobrovsky early.
It’s a specific set of instructions required to beat a team like the Panthers. But such is to be expected against the defending Stanley Cup Champions. The Oilers have it in them to follow the plan; all it takes is executing it.
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