It’s been 45 days since the Edmonton Oilers last had Mattias Ekholm in their lineup. In that time, they’ve played out the remaining three games of the regular season, dethroned the Los Angeles Kings in six games, vanquished the Vegas Golden Knights in five games, and are currently two wins away from their second consecutive berth in the Stanley Cup Final.
When news of the injury first broke, many speculated that Ekholm may not be available for the remainder of the year. After further testing and rehabilitation, it was reported that although Ekholm’s injury was serious, there was optimism that he could return sometime later in the playoffs, should the Oilers make it that far. Bob Stauffer furthered the information with his own speculation that Ekholm was unlikely to return until Game 5 or 6 of the Western Conference Final.
Now that Ekholm is back skating with the team and we’re closing in on the aforementioned benchmark, it’s a good time to reflect on who should come out of the lineup once he is officially cleared to play. This is quite a difficult decision, considering how well the team has played in the veteran defenceman’s absence, but it’s a good problem for the Oilers’ coaching staff to have.
Connor Brown’s status is day-to-day
After yesterday’s practice, Kris Knoblauch indicated that Connor Brown will not be in the lineup for Game 4—the forward took a high hit from defenceman Alex Petrovic late in the second period of Game 3 and did not return for the remainder of the match.
With Brown out, the coaches have an easy out, should Ekholm be available for Game 4. Both the players and staff in Edmonton are familiar with the 11-7 configuration, and although they may not always be the biggest fan of it, the structure could work fairly well in this particular case.
For one, Ekholm’s health may still be in flux—if you recall, he was deemed healthy enough to dress for the Oilers back on April 11 in San Jose, but only ended up playing a total of 1:52 in ice time, falling and limping off the ice part way through his second or third shift. If his return is more due to improved pain management rather than a full recovery, there is a risk that this may happen again. In that case, having six other defenceman available to jump across the boards would be a smart fallback option mid-game.
Even if Ekholm is fully healthy and at zero risk of reaggravating things, it would be wise of the Oilers to ease him back into the playoff grind. As mentioned previously, it’s been 45 days since Ekholm last played an actual NHL game, and even if he is moving well in practice, there is no substitute for the pace of real play.
Under the 11-7 configuration, Paul Coffey and the other coaches could selectively pick and choose which minutes Ekholm is most needed for, particularly the penalty kill, where positioning is more important than aggressive skating, or close-out moments in the Oilers’ zone, situations that would make the best use of Ekholm’s unparalleled defensive brilliance.
Admittedly, this option is only available if Ekholm is available this evening, and based on Stauffer’s prognostication above, it may end up being a non-starter. If there is even a slight indication from the medical team that Ekholm could use more rest, the risk does not outweigh the reward. Edmonton is in a wonderful position where they do not need to rush his return.
What about when someone has to come out of the lineup?
Things get a bit harder if Ekholm is not yet ready and someone (likely Viktor Arvidsson) is substituted in Brown’s place. In that case, Knoblauch will have to evaluate which skater should come out of the lineup. It’s a difficult decision to make based on the team’s current performance.
Mere days ago, the easy decision would have been to scratch Troy Stecher, but his steadying effect on Darnell Nurse has been somewhat of a revelation in the past few games. At 5v5, Nurse boasts a 100 GF% and 59 xGF% in 61:43 TOI beside Stecher, while posting a 42 GF% and 49 xGF% without him. That’s a sizeable difference. In an ideal world, Nurse wouldn’t need babysitting and could slide onto the third pair once Ekholm returns, but his numbers with Brett Kulak are disappointing (0 GF% and 46 xGF%). All other pairs remaining equal, Stecher cannot get pulled from the lineup.
The only other defenceman that could be a scratch candidate is John Klingberg, but his performance beside Jake Walman frankly makes him a non-starter. The former Star has one goal, three assists, and is a +7 in 13 playoff games, with a 71 GF% and 54 xGF% at 5v5. The emergence of the Klingberg-Walman pairing has been a huge reason why the Oilers have been able to remain afloat in Ekholm’s absence. It’s hard to justify making any changes to that pairing as well.
If the remaining defencemen are untouchable, which is a fair assumption, that brings us back to the 11-7 approach, and as mentioned earlier, this configuration makes a lot of sense in the early stages of Ekholm’s return.
Analyzing the options at forward, the untouchables are Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and Evander Kane. For their contributions to the penalty kill, a key factor against in their Conference Final matchup, it’s also hard to imagine the Oilers scratching Adam Henrique, Mattias Janmark, or Connor Brown (when healthy).
That leaves the following forwards (on-ice statistics per NST):
| Player Name | GP | G | A | P | 5v5 oi GF% | 5v5 oi xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Arvidsson | 9 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 62.5 | 46.7 |
| Trent Frederic | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 57.1 | 51.0 |
| Kasperi Kapanen | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 100.0 | 46.6 |
| Corey Perry | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 57.1 | 57.1 |
| Vasiliy Podkolzin | 14 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 75.0 | 46.9 |
The numbers above are interesting. In terms of actual goal share, Frederic and Perry are giving up the most to the opposition. Alternatively, Arvidsson, Kapanen, or Podkolzin are outscoring their opponents quite significantly, but some regression to the mean should be expected based on their underlying numbers. That being said, the statistics above reflect the entire playoffs thus far, and what happened during the Kings’ or Knights’ series may not be indicative of how these players are currently performing against Dallas.
Let’s zoom in on just the Western Conference Final:
| Player Name | GP | G | A | P | 5v5 oi GF% | 5v5 oi xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Arvidsson | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Trent Frederic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 53.6 |
| Kasperi Kapanen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 33.0 |
| Corey Perry | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 42.0 |
| Vasiliy Podkolzin | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 41.0 |
The small sample size makes it hard to form any decisive conclusions, but the players on the wrong side of the ledger are Podkolzin and Perry, along with Kapanen, whose goal share doesn’t match his underlying numbers.
From the data above, the only one who is in the clear is Trent Frederic (although ironically enough, he may also be a candidate for some rest, mainly from an injury standpoint). You could reasonably justify scratching any of the other four forwards, although it’s admittedly hard to see Knoblauch sitting the veteran Perry, especially due to his prominence on the Oilers’ first power play unit. Alternatively, Kapanen and Arvidsson both fill a similar role on the right wing, so one of those wingers could be the first candidate to sit. When or if Connor Brown returns, the other could face a similar fate.
Finding the sweet spot for Ekholm’s return
Ultimately, it will be up to the trainers, medical team, and coaches to determine the ideal timeline for Mattias Ekholm to make his playoff debut. Whether that be in Game 4 against the Dallas Stars or potentially deeper in the playoffs, they are the ones who understand the severity of the injury and have visibility to into his status long-term.
The Edmonton Oilers have done a great job without him, but Mattias Ekholm is one of team’s most important pieces. At his best, he’s a two-way beast, shutting down the best of what the opposition can bring while supporting Edmonton’s top line attack; if and when he’s available, Oil Country is sure to welcome him back with open arms.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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