Since the break for the 4 Nations Face-Off, the Edmonton Oilers have had several key players go down with injury, including superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, as well as top defenceman Mattias Ekholm, who has been ruled out for the entire first round of the playoffs. This has resulted in some fascinating (and at times unnerving) game lineups, and as it pertains to the forward corps, some intriguing line combinations.
One top-line combination that has been tried out, especially in games where McDavid has played but Draisaitl hasn’t, has been McDavid centring Jeff Skinner and Connor Brown. Brown was one of four Oilers to play all 82 games this season and both Brown and Skinner have stepped up in general as of late. In a small sample size, this line has seemed to find instant chemistry; not a small feat given past difficulty finding ideal wingers for McDavid.
How impactful has this top-line option been? Let’s find out.
The basic stats like them a lot
The general stats are the easiest to work with, so let’s go there first. Skinner-McDavid-Brown has been used as a lineup combination in 14 of the Oilers’ 82 games this season, and excluding the April 14 contest versus the Los Angeles Kings where the Oilers rested McDavid, this line combination has remained together since Game 78, versus the St. Louis Blues. This trio has played 49.2 minutes together at even-strength.
In those 14 games, they have scored four times, which might not seem like a lot but ranks eighth among Oilers forward line combinations in that department; 43 different forward combos have scored at least once. On the defensive side of the puck, Skinner-McDavid-Brown is one of 26 line combinations to not allow a goal against. More crucially, only Mattias Janmark with Brown and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins have played more minutes together (65.6) while not giving up a goal against than Skinner-McDavid-Brown.
Going by per-60 minutes rates really indicates the strong actual-goals stats for this combination. Skinner-McDavid-Brown owns a 4.88 goals-for per-60 mark, while allowing zero goals against per-60. The only line to play more minutes together and post a higher goals-for per-60 mark is none other than the consensus “loaded-up” top line option of Draisaitl, McDavid, and Zach Hyman. Pretty elite company to keep, needless to say.
*All stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.com
Advanced stats like them a lot, too
Sometimes, basic stats can be deceiving; that is plausible. Putting that to the test here, however, indicates something very similar to the previous category—Skinner, McDavid, and Brown are clicking. It also does indicate that, on top of just being pretty good together, this specific top-line trio has benefitted from some good luck here and there.
Offensively, Skinner-McDavid-Brown has been expected to produce 3.1 goals, along with 3.78 goals-for per-60. Not quite four goals and 4.88 per 60, but with under an hour of total playing time together, still relatively decent.
Defensively, they have of course been expected to give up a bit, but the expected goals-against and xGA per 60 are still pretty low, at 1.3 and 1.59 respectively. In short, Skinner-McDavid-Brown have been expected so far to outscore opposition 3–1 instead of 4–0; they’re not supposed to be quite as dominant as they are, but they’re still soundly controlling even-strength play in their minutes together.
The level of control is indicated by the other eye-popping stat, which is the expected goals percentage. Heading into Wednesday’s action, Skinner-McDavid-Brown were just inside the top 10 in this category, and it ranked as the highest trio to feature McDavid. Even after the most recent game against the San Jose Sharks, Skinner-McDavid-Brown still rock a 70.5 xG percentage, virtually on par with the “Hart Trophy” line of Draisaitl-McDavid-Perry. The other 12 combinations that rank higher all have smaller sample sizes. Skinner-McDavid-Brown has continued to be strong even with the sample size becoming much larger as of late.
*All stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.com
Games 78, 79, 80, and 82 key moments
With the Oilers about to embark on a new Stanley Cup Playoff run, the recent play of this line is the most impactful to learn about. We’ll trace back to the St. Louis game, the night on which McDavid returned to the lineup after missing eight games due to injury.
Down 1–0 after the first period against the Blues thanks to their shorthanded goal from defenceman Ryan Suter, the Skinner-McDavid-Brown line tied the game 90 seconds into the second period with an even-strength goal. It was just the fourth shift of the game for that line as a whole, and only the second to not be cut short by a whistle.
In the third period, that line was out there again and drew a delayed penalty from the Blues; Skinner changed in favour of Viktor Arvidsson, who got the goal that put Edmonton ahead 3–2, but that goal was set in motion by Skinner-McDavid-Brown.
15:41 into the first period of the home game against the Sharks, once again, Skinner-McDavid-Brown out there, with Ty Emberson scoring and Evan Bouchard picking up the non-McDavid assist. The trio would also open the scoring against the Winnipeg Jets, less than a minute into the second period, and in the road game against San Jose 8:20 into the first period.
That road-San Jose opener might be the best example of all three being effective; Skinner feeds the puck to Emberson, who dishes to McDavid along the half-wall. McDavid passes back to Emberson at the point. Emberson correctly takes the shot, as Brown blocks the entirety of Sharks netminder Alexandar Georgiev’s sightline with a perfect screen.
Each of those four games, it has taken less than 22 minutes of game time for Skinner-McDavid-Brown to not only be effective, but find the back of the net.
*Edmonton vs. St. Louis shift stats via Shift Chart
Should we see this line together in the playoffs?
With Zach Hyman set to return to the lineup, it’s not likely we’ll see Skinner-McDavid-Brown as a unit in Game 1; Hyman’s absence was another necessitating factor in this line’s creation.
However, it remains to be seen what strength Hyman is returning at, as with the rest of the injured Oilers players. If circumstances require it, it’s not out of the question we see this line reunited, even if simply to spread the wealth of Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, and Hyman elsewhere in the lineup. But given these recent practice lines, it’s looking like it won’t be a Game 1 combination.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
2 Comments