With the trade deadline mere weeks away, Edmonton Oilers fans are once again grappling with their team’s most critical yet controversial position: goaltending.
Coming into the year, many expected Stuart Skinner to take another step forward, following a Stanley Cup Final appearance and Calder Trophy nomination in back-to-back seasons. However, Skinner has been largely underwhelming, posting a .900 SV% in 37 games while playing behind a team that currently sits in fourth place in the league.
Oil Country is split—some see him as a solid asset at his current cap hit, while others insist Edmonton won’t win a championship without a goaltending move. So what’s the deal?
Reasons to sound the alarm on Skinner
A few weeks ago, inspired by Skinner’s lacklustre performance against the Washington Capitals, I thought it would be interesting to dig into his splits against the league’s best teams. The results were troubling:
Since then, Skinner has played only one additional game against a top-10 team (by points percentage), the Toronto Maple Leafs, where he posted an .857 SV%, allowing four goals on 28 shots.
The reality is clear: Skinner has struggled mightily against elite competition, and that can’t continue if the team hopes to accomplish what they fell two goals short of last year.
Out of curiosity, I conducted the same exercise on all Stanley Cup-winning goalies since the 2010–11 season (i.e. how they performed against top-10 teams). Here are the results:
| Season | Player | SV % | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10–11 | Tim Thomas | 93.7% | 11–5–2 |
| 11–12 | Jonathan Quick | 93.2% | 11–10–0 |
| 12–13 | Corey Crawford | 91.9% | 4–3–0 |
| 13–14 | Jonathan Quick | 89.0% | 5–6–0 |
| 14–15 | Corey Crawford | 93.3% | 9–5–2 |
| 15–16 | Matt Murray | 93.4% | 2–1–0 |
| 16–17 | Matt Murray | 90.3% | 9–3–1 |
| 17–18 | Braden Holtby | 90.3% | 8–7–1 |
| 18–19 | Jordan Binnington | 94.6% | 7–2–1 |
| 19–20 | Andrei Vasilevskiy | 91.3% | 10–6–3 |
| 20–21 | Andrei Vasilevskiy | 91.7% | 5–7–1 |
| 21–22 | Darcy Kuemper | 91.7% | 14–3–2 |
| 22–23 | Adin Hill | 91.4% | 2–3–1 |
| 23–24 | Sergei Bobrovsky | 90.2% | 10–9–2 |
| 24–25 | Stuart Skinner | 87.0% | 2–8–3 |
Skinner’s numbers stick out like a sore thumb. Since 2010, only one Stanley Cup-winning goalie has ended the season with a sub-.900 SV% against top-10 teams. Furthermore, despite the Oilers sitting at fourth place in the league, Skinner has the worst points percentage (27%) out of all of the goaltenders above.
In the past 15 years, only three Cup-winning goalies have had losing records against top teams, yet all have managed to stay above 40%. There’s still a bit of runway for Skinner’s numbers to improve before the trade deadline, but the ground is shrinking beneath him fast.
Inconsistency is another concern in Skinner’s game. Among goalies with 20+ games played, Skinner ranks 22nd in quality start percentage (games above league-average SV% or above an .885 in games with 20 or fewer shots, per DobberHockey). And when he struggles, he really struggles–ranking ninth in the league for “really bad starts” (sub-.850 SV%).
What about the other guy?
I have immense respect for Calvin Pickard, a player who has spent over a decade bouncing between leagues and continents to keep his National Hockey League dream alive. However, the simple fact of the matter is that the Oilers do not trust him enough to consistently play him against the league’s best. He has just three starts against top-10 teams this season, which would put him on pace to be the most sheltered Cup-winning goalie in 15 years, should he eventually take over the crease.
Across his decade-long professional career, Pickard has also only started two NHL playoff games—both last year—which raises legitimate concerns about whether he can be relied upon in high-pressure situations.
Counterpoints to concerns on goaltending
Those who downplay the Oilers goaltending issues usually respond with one or a combination of the following five rebuttals:
“Skinner carried this team to one goal shy of the Stanley Cup last year.”
Firstly, this isn’t the same Oilers team. Philip Broberg, Cody Ceci, Vincent Desharnais, Warren Foegele, Dylan Holloway, and Ryan McLeod have all moved on, leaving the team’s playoff identity in flux. Will Skinner be the .922 SV% goalie from the Western Conference Final, or the .833 SV% netminder who struggled against the Vancouver Canucks in Round 2? And if it’s the latter, do you feel comfortable handing the reins to Pickard, who has played in just three playoff games in his career?
“The Oilers are bound to have average goaltending since they are not allocating much money to the position.”
I’m not sure how this argument effectively refutes the Oilers’ need for a goalie upgrade. If anything, it reinforces the idea that Edmonton should prioritize their remaining cap space on the position they’ve neglected the most.
“Skinner was never meant to be the starter this early into his career.”
This is another argument that, in my opinion, undermines itself. Skinner’s performance is commendable for the position he has been prematurely thrust into, but does this claim not indicate that he could use more support?
“The Oilers have more important needs elsewhere.”
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Oilers rank second in xGF% and High-Danger Chances Against in all situations. SportlogIQ, a company that uses pre-shot data for even more accurate modelling, has the Oilers ranked at the top of the league in expected goals differential. In actual production, the team is tied for seventh in 5v5 goals with the Winnipeg Jets and Carolina Hurricanes. Alternatively, Edmonton ranks 21st in Goals Against Above Expected (per MoneyPuck) and 18th in team SV%. Statistically speaking, goaltending has been the Oilers’ biggest issue this season.
“There is no one better available.”
I’m not sure I buy this either. Most fans calling for an upgrade aren’t asking for someone to replace Skinner, but rather someone who can share the net with him. Names like John Gibson and Karel Vejmelka have been discussed at length, but even a veteran like Cam Talbot may fit the bill as a goaltender who can compete for tougher starts. Limited options may drive up acquisition price, but ignoring the risk of another Skinner slump could be far costlier.
The Oilers need to do something about goaltending now
At his best, Stuart Skinner is a workhorse: positionally sound and tough to beat. However, his inconsistency and poor play against elite competition, combined with management’s lack of faith in Pickard, make goaltending an area the Oilers cannot ignore at the deadline. Who is available and at what cost is something that remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the time is now. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl’s biological clocks are ticking.
Photo by Derek Cain/Icon Sportswire
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