It seems in recent weeks, the Edmonton Oilers have been linked to nearly every player on the market. Even the far fetched ones like Mikko Rantanen. And this past weekend, another player was added to that list. This time, it is Chicago Blackhawks forward, Ryan Donato.
Elliotte Friedman put this note into the universe on Saturday while doubling down in 32 Thoughts yesterday. The takeaway from the sudden and repeated connection is that Donato is a serious target for Edmonton at the upcoming trade deadline.
The Oilers have been active in the acquisition market this season, and with the team in Cup-or-bust mode this season, they must pull all of the stops to not squander away this opportunity.
Donato is having a career year on an atrocious Chicago team. It is impressive what he has been able to do on a bad team and with limited ice time. Through 53 games, he has a career-high 19 goals and 37 points while his 18 assists tie his career-high set last season. All of this while averaging 15:03 in ice time per game.
While it obviously makes sense to bring in productive players, it does beg the question of sustainability for Donato’s performance. Is his career-best pace this season going to last through the playoffs? And is it the best move to buy-high and spend extra assets on an otherwise average depth forward?
Ryan Donato career overview
Donato was originally a second-round draft pick of the Boston Bruins in 2014. He debuted a few seasons later, in 2017–18, with the Bruins, recording nine points in 12 games.
The very next season he was traded to the Minnesota Wild and has since spent parts of two seasons with the Wild, one season with the San Jose Sharks, two seasons with the Seattle Kraken, and is now in his second season with the Blackhawks. Needless to say, Donato is very well traveled for someone with eight seasons in the league.
Donato has been an underrated depth scorer during his years. Usually fairly consistent at around a 30-point pace, he has totalled 96 goals and 202 points in 456 career games.
Does Ryan Donato fit with the Edmonton Oilers?
Despite sitting tied for third in the league in points and tied for ninth in goals scored, the Oilers have a significant lack of middle-of-the-lineup scoring depth and an alarming drop-off in their scoring leaderboard after the top scorers. Their overall scoring depth matches up well against other top teams, but this is a situation where adding a player like Donato would be incredibly appealing. His 37 points would immediately be fourth on the team in scoring and help bridge the gap between the top and bottom of the lineup.
Exemplified by his recent four-point game, the best of his career, Donato has the potential to boost the middle-six scoring from the wings. The contrast between Leon Draisaitl‘s 83 points and the 20 that his most common linemates (according to Natural Stat Trick) Vasily Podkolzin and Viktor Arvidsson have is jarring. Most of the scoring that happens when Draisaitl is on the ice is with Connor McDavid.
Although this setup is clearly working, it would be good to be able to split them up. Having a middle-six forward like Donato would help the team be able to accomplish this.
The biggest question is if Donato’s scoring is sustainable. The last thing the Oilers need right now is another underperforming depth winger.
Ryan Donato shot and scoring stats
One quick way to check the likelihood of Donato carrying this level of production through the rest of the season and playoffs are some shooting stats. A glance at Moneypuck shows his shooting percentage at 15.3% on the season. Which is significantly above his career average of 10.5 and even more compared to his first season with Chicago, in which he shot at 8.1%.
Next, we can compare his expected goals to his actual goals. Moneypuck shows his expected goals in all situations at 13.2. But he currently has 19 actual goals. This reflects in the higher than average shooting percentage and further suggests he will slow down at some point.
The biggest question is if that will hold out for the remainder of the season.
So far, it looks to be holding up. In the first 18 games of the season, Donato had eight goals and 11 points. In the next 18 game section, he had three goals and 10 points. In the most recent 17 games, he has eight goals and 16 points.
If anything, Donato is heating up into the latter parts of the season.
What would the lineup fit be for Ryan Donato?
Donato is currently lining up on Chicago’s first line with Connor Bedard, and it appears the two have been common linemates this season according to Natural Stat Trick. Although he likely wouldn’t play in the same spot in Edmonton’s lineup, Donato would be a fit alongside Draisaitl or as a way to ignite some scoring on the third line.
Donato can play all three forward positions, although he is not adept at face-offs with a sub-50 face-off win percentage this season. Being able to play both wings increases his versatility within the lineup.
Two of the biggest praises about Donato as a player are his work ethic and his speed. Traits possessed by other Oilers wingers like Connor Brown, Mattias Janmark, Arvidsson, and Podkolzin. Some of those players haven’t quite found the offensive touch that the Oilers would have hoped, which leads to an appealing option for Donato to play on the second line where Arvidsson and Podkolzin have been in an attempt to give Draisaitl a winger with a finishing touch.
Donato would not be expected to take on a special teams role. He has spent a lot of time on Chicago’s power play this season, and he may see some time with the second unit if he were to be an Oiler, but that would be minimal. He is not a penalty killer. Only once in his career has be had more than six minutes total time on ice shorthanded in a single season, that being the 2023–24 season. This year, he has just over two minutes of ice time shorthanded in 53 games.
What the Oilers would be getting is a 5v5 winger with speed, a high work ethic, and a scoring touch.
What would it cost the Oilers to acquire Ryan Donato?
As a pending UFA and likely pure rental, Donato’s acquisition cost would not be high and his $2M AAV would be easy to fit in, maybe even without any retention needed. The Oilers could potentially get away with only needing to part with a third-round pick for Donato, though with his recent performance and numerous teams interested that may even push up to a second.
Should the Oilers make a trade for Ryan Donato? Drop a comment down below!
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