Ladies and gentlemen, it’s time to speculate wildly with me now. Earlier this week on the Cam and Strick Podcast it was reported as “informed speculation” that Mikko Rantanen, if not signed to an extension by the Carolina Hurricanes, may sign with your very own Edmonton Oilers in the coming offseason.
Rantanen, for those of you who found yourself entrenched under a large boulder this past week, was traded in a blockbuster deal to the Carolina Hurricanes in a three-way trade with Chicago and Colorado. In it’s entirety, the deal saw Carolina pick up Rantanen, Taylor Hall, and a prospect; the Colorado Avalanche receive Martin Necas, Jack Drury, a second- and a fourth-round pick, while Chicago acquired a third-round pick while retaining half of Rantanen’s salary. Apparently Chicago GM Kyle Davidson was feeling generous or confused that day.
A superstar of Rantanen’s calibre
I know what you are likely thinking because I was thinking the exact same thing when I heard this idea. Specifically, “could you imagine? There’s no way they could afford him though, they aren’t the L.A. Dodgers.” When was the last time there were three players of that calibre playing on the same team, especially in the salary cap era? Surely, it has never really happened. Then I was quickly dissapointed as I realized Rantanen basically just left a team like that.
When you think about Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon, and Cale Makar all playing together you would think they would be more of a wagon than they are now, currently holding the first wild card spot in the west. Don’t forget, though, that they won the Cup a couple years ago. I have a hard time imagining an Oilers fan who would not like to see Rantanen share the ice with Draisaitl and McDavid if possible.
The truth is that this possibility is not nearly as fantastic as it first appears though, there are a few things that would have to go right to make this happen. Probably first and foremost is that the salary cap would have to go up more than expected. It was reported that the cap would go up from $88M to $92.4M next year with the potential of it going higher yet. Later though Elliote Friedman reported that it could go as high as $97M. That would be the ticket for the Oilers.
How can the Oilers make this work?
Here is a lineup that our very own Oil Rig writer Sean Laycock masterminded using the GM tool on puckpedia.com. This illustrates quite well what the roster could look like and how it could be essentially cap compliant should the cap reach such lofty heights.
The important points to note here are first: that Viktor Arvidsson and Evander Kane would have to be traded away. This doesn’t seem even remotely unreasonable as neither contract is extremely expensive and both will expire after only one year. A hopeful cup contender would be happy to scoop these players up, just as Edmonton did when they acquired them.
Note that Mathieu Olivier appears here only due to hypothetical trades involving Arvidsson and Kane. One can imagine almost any player, including a rookie, filling that spot.
Second is that Jeff Skinner and Corey Perry would not be re-signed.
Third is that Evan Bouchard would have to sign for $9.5M or less and Rantanen for $13.25M or less.
When negotiating with Bouchard, who is currently on pace for 61 points, the Oilers management will have Cale Makar’s $9M AAV and Quinn Hughes’s $7.85M AAV to point to and ask “where are my 90 points?”
Now Bouchard scored 82 points last year and there is no question that he’s an excellent offensive defenceman, but it’s plain to see that he is not on the same tier as Makar and Hughes in skating or stick handling. Even more than Makar or Hughes, Bouchard looks like he would suffer when removed from his all-stars.
It would be a grave mistake to give Bouchard $10M AAV or higher, and personally I think a salary that starts with eight is perfectly fair. However, more realistically, a $9.5M AAV seems most likely. Keep in mind that this is all relative, when looking at the NHL as a whole, there is no question that Bouchard is in the upper echelon.
As for Rantanen, he himself is quoted as saying that he was willing to take a discount from market value in order to sign an extension with Colorado, and, for that reason, he was surprised that he was traded. It was rumoured that Rantanen was looking for $14M when he signs his next contract, which would tie him as the highest paid player in the league with Leon Draisaitl. That seems like a lot to me, $12M sounds right to me, but the $13.25M suggested above is nothing to scoff at, especially when you get to play with McDavid and Draisaitl.
Rantanen would be a great addition to the lineup
I’d be lying if I said the lineup above wasn’t one of the most impressive NHL lineups I’ve seen in a long time. The Oilers would likely need to rely on some young guns more than they do now, but that’s probably for the best. Any apprehension caused by too many rookies should be easily cured by imagining a power play unit of McDavid, Draisaitl, Rantanen, Zach Hyman, and Bouchard. Really there would be no excuse for performing under 50%.
Though this reality is pure speculation now, I honestly think that the Oilers should move in this direction if the cap rises enough.
stats from NHL.com puckpedia.com, and naturalstattrick.com
Follow The Oil Rig on social media!
3 Comments