The Edmonton Oilers had a fantastic month in January to kick off 2025. In 14 games played they accumulated a record of 10–3–1. This put them ahead of Vegas for first place in the Pacific Division. There was also a time during the month when Connor McDavid missed three games due to a suspension.
So, just how well did the Oilers play in these games? As you know by now, this series is me taking a look at games and seeing the type of shots and chances Edmonton gives up 5v5. The team has actually been quite solid defensively despite the concerns of their blue-line entering the season.
How Edmonton stacks up in shots against
Right now, Edmonton ranks 10th in shots against, eighth in scoring chances against, and fourth and sixth in high-danger chances and goals allowed. These are almost elite numbers for a team that’s been running Troy Stecher, Josh Brown, John Klingberg, and Travis Dermott constantly in their top-four this season.
Today, I’ll go over three incredible games by the Oilers to highlight their elite defensive play this month: On the road against the Los Angeles Kings and Colorado Avalanche and the game at home against the Vancouver Canucks.
Just a refresher as always: @NHL_Sid, @PapaNurse and I track the games. NHL_Sid started this shot-tracking project last season and was kind enough to let both PapaNurse and I work alongside him. These stats are coming from this project where we manually track each 5v5 shot attempt and shot on goal (blocked shots do not count).
Here are the stats from the games I tracked. (Note: y = Yes, bt = Behind The Net, rr = Royal Road (across the slot in the offensive zone essentially; High Danger Chances come from here typically), r = Rush, ff = Face-off, f = Forecheck and c = Cycle)
The figure above within the black area shows shots that are considered scoring chances.
A 1–0 Win over L.A.
Oilers shot attempts: 37 (10HDCF)
Kings shot attempts: 35 (11HDCF) (3 from the NZ)
Oilers 5v5 xG: 2.47
Kings 5v5 xG: 1.74
Note: The number within the brackets indicates how many shots came off that shot type.
Kings Shots:
| Shot Type | Assist Type | Chances | Goals | Odd-Man Rushes | Screens | Rebounds | Tips |
| Rush (11) | 1 RR | 5 | 2v1, 4v2 | ||||
| Cycle (10) | 2 BT | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Forecheck (6) | 2 | ||||||
| Face-off (5) | 2 | 2 | 2 |
While yes, it looks like Edmonton was outplayed by L.A., that couldn’t be further from the truth. All Oiler fans know how this Kings team plays even if they ditched the 1–3–1 gimmick. It’s boring hockey, but L.A. still isn’t able to score a lot of goals and it showed again here.
Besides a few chances like the two-on-one save early in the first, a Byfield shot off the post and a partial break by Foegele, Edmonton kinda just lingered around until they had an opportunity to strike.
They know how to beat these guys, and it’s quite clear that despite being outshot and chanced 5v5, Edmonton had the better xG share because they shot from higher-quality areas more often. A solid game by the guys.
A 4–3 win over Colorado
Oilers shot attempts: 35 (14HDCF)
Avs shot attempts: 26 (7HDCF) (3 omitted)
Oilers 5v5 xG: 2.46
Avs 5v5 xG: 1.47
Avalanche Shots:
| Shot Type | Assist Type | Chances | Goals | Odd-Man Rushes | Screens | Rebounds | Tips |
| Rush (9) | 4 | 2 | |||||
| Cycle (8) | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Forecheck (6) | 1BT | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Face-off |
The first period of this game saw the Avalanche jump out to a 3–0 lead. After that, Edmonton dominated the Avalanche and it wasn’t even close. In the final two periods, Edmonton outchanced and outshot the Avalanche 5v5.
The Avalanche had five rush chances in the first and then only four for the rest of the game. A reminder that the Avs do most of their damage off the rush and have been consistently the best team in the area over the last five years.
Edmonton cleaned up in the face-off circle and didn’t allow a single shot through that, sustained the heavy Colorado forecheck well and even off the cycle where players like MacKinnon, Makar, Lehkonen and at that point Rantanen love to feed the puck back and forth. This was a statement game by Edmonton and coming back down from that early deficit showed that.
A 6–2 win over Vancouver
Oilers shot attempts: 34 (12HDCF)
Canucks shot attempts: 35 (2 HDCF) (5 omitted)
Oilers 5v5 xG: 2.49
Canucks 5v5 xG: 22
Canucks Shots:
| Shot Type | Assist Type | Chances | Goals | Odd-Man Rushes | Screens | Rebounds | Tips |
| Rush (12) | 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Cycle (8) | 2 | 2 | |||||
| Forecheck (5) | 3 | ||||||
| Face-off (5) | 4 | 1 |
While the Canucks may have outshot the Oilers this game, Edmonton gave them nothing, absolutely nothing 5v5. The Canucks, in Tocchet’s dump and chase back to the point system, only netted two high-danger chances and 11 scoring chances all game. This is putrid.
The Oilers gave them no space off the rush which led to a bunch of easy point shots for Pickard to save. This was pretty evident when the Canucks would win the face-off, bring it back to the defence who would walk in and shoot it. The Canucks couldn’t sustain a forecheck at all and even off the cycle, one of Tocchet’s supposed strengths, mustered eight shots.
This was a great game by the Oilers who were also missing McDavid. Near-perfect game.
Final thoughts on Edmonton based on tracked shots
This team is easily looking like the Cup favourites at this point and I don’t care if I’m being biased at all. The fact they’re playing so well with awful depth scoring, tweener defencemen in a #4 role and shaky, inconsistent goaltending is a sign that they’re legit.
Once they add at the deadline I don’t know who they’d lose to. They have eight games before the deadline and I’m so excited to see what the finished product looks like.
