Players who sign huge contracts can often feel the pressure that comes along with that. Fortunately for Edmonton Oilers fans, Leon Draisaitl is no ordinary player. After inking a new eight-year contract with a $14M cap hit this summer, Draisaitl has returned with the best regular season of his career. Already on pace to be one of the great individual playoff performers of all time, Draisaitl is no stranger to performing under pressure.
Running away in the Rocket Richard Trophy goal scoring race, Draisaitl is even gaining some consideration for the Selke Trophy this season. For more distant observers, these defensive results are a reversal of reputation. Together it all points towards a bigger conclusion: Leon Draisaitl should be the favourite for the Hart Trophy.
Defensive turnaround
A look at the player card above shows the career arc of Draisaitl prior to this season. Obviously the defensive impacts are underwhelming, but that has never stopped Draisaitl from being among the league’s best players over that time, even capturing a Hart Trophy in the truncated 2019–20 season. Many of the fans who mock the idea of Draisaitl as a legitimate Selke Trophy candidate are doing so based off of this reputation.
This season, however, there is a clear uptick in such measurements. Draisaitl is getting a balance of shifts that start in the defensive zone, sandwiched between centres Connor McDavid, who gets most of the offensive zone starts, and Adam Henrique, who gets more of the defensive work. Below, using EvolvingHockey’s stats, Draisaitl grades out even more favourably.
Stats like these are why Draisaitl is earning some Selke Trophy consideration. Unfortunately, the likelihood that he wins the award, or is even named a finalist, is quite low. For many voters, the fact that Draisaitl does not play on the penalty kill will be an obstacle. Even more so, the Selke Trophy is an award based on reputation as much as stats. It often takes years to build out a profile strong enough to win over the various ideologies that make up the voters for this award, and it is unlikely that Draisaitl will surpass many of the more conventional choices within this season.
Still, even without a Selke nomination Draisaitl’s improved performance cannot be entirely overlooked. It is true that Draisaitl has not always had linemates or usage conducive to strong defensive stats. Draisaitl is relied upon for offence, and for the sake of the team that must be his priority. Last season Draisaitl was often on a line with Evander Kane, who does not control the flow of play. At times he was even paired with Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod, who often had success in that area. This season, Viktor Arvidsson and Vasily Podkolzin seem to be the best of both worlds, providing support on both sides of the puck.
In the end it is Draisaitl himself who is most responsible for this turnaround. He does have the strength, skill, and determination to win puck battles. It will be an incredible development for the Oilers if he can continue these results throughout most of his contract.
Legacy Draisaitl created so far
Given that Draisaitl has already won the Hart Trophy without a strong defensive impact, it should come as no surprise that this huge improvement vaults him into the conversation once more. Draisaitl’s MVP came at a strange time in the world, and a season cut short. While no one is advocating for an asterisk beside this MVP, a second Hart Trophy would undoubtedly change the way that Draisaitl is perceived around the league and through the context of history.
For starters, Draisaitl might be able to distinguish him on the league wide hierarchy of players. In recent years, more and more fans have scoffed at the idea that Draisaitl is the conversation for the league’s best player behind McDavid. It might also change shake some of the Evgeni Malkin comparisons. One of the best players of all time, Malkin shares with Draisaitl the fact that they are often seen as the second best player on their teams.
While these individual accomplishments are noteworthy, they might only serve to increase the pressure on the Oilers as a team. Many would describe the Oilers failure to win a Stanley Cup with McDavid a failure, and Draisaitl further distinguishing himself only reinforces that narrative. It is a fairly harsh narrative, but one that will continue to weigh on the Oilers and their superstars until it changes.
The progress that the Oilers have made over the years should not be overlooked, nor their place amongst the league’s best teams be taken for granted. In years past a big conversation surrounded whether or not the Oilers should split McDavid and Draisaitl onto separate lines, as the team did not have enough depth or quality to tread water without them on the ice. Now with the three game suspension to McDavid, Draisaitl will have the chance to step up once more and prove his believers correct.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
6 Comments