When you think of the Edmonton Oilers, you generally think of Connor McDavid, and why not? He is undisputedly one of the best players to ever play the game, one of the most exciting players to watch. When McDavid first won the Art Ross Trophy in 2017 with 100 points (I guess he wasn’t feeling well that year), it seemed like he would never give it up until he retired. Who could be a more offensively dominant player?
They forgot about Drai
Three years later McDavid was bested by his own teammate, Leon Draisaitl, for the Art Ross. Even though Draisaitl and McDavid would surely say that they don’t care about the personal accolades and McDavid’s play undoubtedly helped Draisiatl, just as Draisaitl has helped McDavid, it was a huge deal to have two Art Ross winners on the same team. Only including winners after 1970, that’s happened four other times: Bobby Orr and Phil Esposito, Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin. Even better, 3 out of 4 of those duos won the Stanley cup together at least twice.
Draisaitl also won the Hart Trophy and the Ted Lindsay Award that same 2019–20 season, since then he has been close to the Art Ross and the Rocket Richard a few times. It is no secret that Draisaitl has always been thought of as a offensive master, while his defensive play has been criticized at times. Most offensive minded players really are going to be defensive liabilities since they position themselves so offensively. What’s really impressive is if you can score a lot while still being defensively effective.
That is what the Selke Trophy, given “to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game,” has become about. The winner of the Selke, far more often than not, is an offensively gifted forward who excels at the defensive aspects of the game. Whether or not it’s what the trophy was originally meant to honour, it is worthy of appreciation.
Does Draisaitl have a chance?
Draisaitl really has stepped up his game this year, showing us without a doubt that he is worth the $14M that he’ll be raking in next year. Not only is he leading the league in goals and tied for second in points, he is playing with more heart and defensive responsibility, and his numbers reflect that. Here is how Draisaitl stacks up against the past 10 Selke winners.
Note that these are all “on-ice” stats, meaning that they are the teams stats when he is on the ice. The table is ranked by xGA/60.
| Player | +/- | GA/60 | CA/60 | SA/60 | xGA/60 | HDCA/60 | Sv% |
| Bergeron (2022) | +26 | 1.68 | 40.4 | 23.63 | 1.56 | 6.19 | .929 |
| Bergeron (2015) | +2 | 2.51 | 47.03 | 25.48 | 1.7 | 6.78 | .902 |
| Bergeron (2017) | +12 | 2.13 | 44.01 | 22.98 | 1.75 | 7.81 | .908 |
| Barkov (2021) | +12 | 2.11 | 45.45 | 26.19 | 1.98 | 7.94 | .919 |
| Barkov (2024) | +33 | 1.49 | 50.54 | 24.3 | 2.02 | 8.14 | .939 |
| Kopitar (2016) | +34 | 1.78 | 46.64 | 25.57 | 2.03 | 8.77 | .930 |
| Bergeron (2023) | +35 | 1.22 | 48.42 | 26.32 | 2.05 | 8.84 | .954 |
| Draisaitl (2025) | +46 (on pace) | 1.82 | 49.18 | 24 | 2.14 | 8.04 | .924 |
| Couturier (2020) | +21 | 2.11 | 47.9 | 27.31 | 2.17 | 10.64 | .923 |
| O’Reilly (2019) | +22 | 1.86 | 52.46 | 28.22 | 2.23 | 9.93 | .934 |
| Kopitar (2018) | +21 | 2.2 | 53.44 | 28.12 | 2.31 | 10.48 | .922 |
While Draisaitl ranks in the bottom half in xGA/60, he is well within the range of past Selke winners. He is on par in every other category, second in SA/60 and is on track to blow the past winners out of the water in +/-, though this is largely due to his offensive work.
The problem with on-ice stats like these is that there are four other skaters on the ice at the same time and that hockey is very much a team game, so you can’t attribute the stats solely to Draisaitl.
The chances that he can win
We know that Draisaitl is having a Selke-esque year, but how does he match up with the Selke favourites this year?
Here is a table of the five favourites to win the Selke according to bet365 and their odds. After each stat is where the player ranks in that category among the forwards who have played more than 250 minutes, and in the case of takeaways, among the forwards who have played more than 20 games. They are ranked by their average of those ranks which is shown in the last column.
| Player | GA/60 | CA/60 | SA/60 | xGA/60 | HDCA /60 | Sv% | TkA/60 | Average Rank |
| Barkov (-200) | 1.71(51) | 48.01(16) | 22.55(22) | 1.88(14) | 7.35(9) | .924(101) | 1.25(101) | 44.9 |
| Draisaitl (+2000) | 1.82(69) | 49.18(28) | 24(51) | 2.14(64) | 8.04(25) | .924(103) | 1.4(61) | 57.3 |
| Reinhart (+900) | 2.02(103) | 49.14(27) | 23.44(39) | 1.7(4) | 6.31(2) | .914(173) | 1.13(142) | 70 |
| Hischier (+350) | 1.78(64) | 52.46(63) | 23.92(49) | 2.17(70) | 8.76(54) | .926(89) | 1.03(173) | 80.3 |
| Cirelli (+1600) | 2.43(185) | 51.82(58) | 26.62 (141) | 2.07(49) | 7.73(14) | .909(199) | 0.83(248) | 127.7 |
Draisaitl does rank second to Aleksander Barkov in everything but takeaways so I would give the edge to Barkov. However, obviously the winner is not decided on these numbers alone. Defensive stats are even worse than offensive stats so far as showing the whole story so the winner may be decided more by the eye test than the stats. Another problem is that Draisaitl’s defensive work is likely to be eclipsed by his offensive work. Even though the Selke is often given to offensively capable players, it is rarely given to players also considered for the Art Ross and the Rocket Richard, as Draisaitl is likely to be.
In the end, whether or not Draisaitl wins the Selke, he is having the best defensive season of his career so far, best in GA/60, CA/60, SA/60, xGA/60 and HDCA/60, and that is something to be celebrated in and of itself.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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