It is no secret that Connor Brown’s tenure with the Edmonton Oilers got off to a difficult start. Originally brought in as a low-risk, high-reward option on the wing to provide scoring depth or, in a best case scenario, rekindle some chemistry with his former junior teammate Connor McDavid, none of that came to fruition early on. Brown found himself slowly working his way down the lineup as he didn’t record a point until the 14th game of the season and had just three assists through his first 35 games of 2023–24.
His ice time was dropping to the point he averaged just shy of 12 minutes per game in the second half of the season, though he did triple his production with four goals and five assists in his final 36 games. Including one of the biggest sighs of relief, and most heartwarming crowd moments, as Brown finally scored his first goal as an Edmonton Oiler against the Washington Capitals in his 55th game.
Something started to shift near the end of the season and into the playoffs, however. Brown’s speed and energy started coming back. He became one of the more dynamic players on the team, and into the playoffs, became part of one of the best penalty killing duos the league has seen with Mattias Janmark. The two of them were huge parts of the Oilers giving up just four goals in 70 attempts on the PK. Edmonton scored three shorthanded goals over that same stretch. Brown had a point on all three.
His effort in the playoffs essentially earned him a second season with the Oilers. And so far, that decision is paying off wonderfully as Brown has turned his game up even more, resulting in a growing role with the team and even more positivity headed his way.
Brown’s resurgence in 2024–25
Fresh off of his strong playoffs and contract extension, Brown picked up right where he left off for the 2024–25 season. This time, it only took him four games to get his first goal. Although he did only have the one point in the first 14 games, the entire team was in a rough place offensively and he was contributing in other ways, namely his role on the penalty kill.
Since the 14th game, Brown has been on a roll. Five goals and 18 points in 26 games have rocketed him up the team scoring leaderboard where he currently sits sixth, and is the highest scoring member of the team outside of the regular suspects.
Coach Kris Knoblauch recognizes this and has been rewarding him with a bigger role in the lineup. Compared to where he ended the previous season at just under 12 minutes of ice time per game, Brown has been averaging nearly two minutes more per game over the course of the season. Additionally, in the middle of a lineup shake-up shortly before the New Year, Brown was elevated to the top line, where he is currently skating alongside McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. In a recent game against the Seattle Kraken, Brown had 19:24 in ice time, the most he has had as an Oiler.
Brown’s on-ice impact
When Brown is on the ice, he is generally having a positive impact on the play. Although some of his possession metrics are sub-50%, according to Natural Stat Trick, at 5v5, he does have more defensive zone starts given his role and ultimately the final production numbers trend positive.
Brown’s Corsi for percentage is just below 50%. Not ideal numbers, but as mentioned he also has a sub-50% offensive zone start percentage which explains the shots and shot attempts against being in the opponents favour.
Where this all turns around in Brown’s favour is in the eventual goal output. Both of Brown’s expected (52.8%) and actual (55.9%) goals for percentage trend significantly upwards in comparison and can begin to give us a picture of his impact on the ice. An interesting stat to put together with this is that Brown’s individual points percentage, which is the percentage of his team’s goals scored while he is on the ice that he factors in on, leads the team. Brown records a point on 89.5% of goals scored while he is on the ice. Indicating that he is a major play driver on his line and whatever is happening often goes through him.
Is it time to extend Connor Brown?
Over the offseason, Brown signed a one-year, $1M contract to remain in Edmonton for just this season. With how his level of play has increased this season, the Oilers would be losing a major asset if they let him walk this summer. It is time to begin looking at what an extension for him would look like.
Now that he is producing closer to a 0.5 points per game pace, playing a role on the penalty kill (and adding another couple of shorthanded points this season), and finding himself elevated in the lineup at times, he is due for a raise.
The Oilers are not in a cap situation to provide huge monetary rewards to players, so it won’t be a huge raise. Given Brown’s general streakiness as an Oiler, his current pace does not seem sustainable.
Ideally, this extension would be look something like one or two years somewhere around $2M to $2.5M per season, depending on how his offence holds out for the remainder of the season. They could also have a lower AAV if they structure it with performance bonuses similar to his contract for his first season in Edmonton.
Similar players with slightly more offensive upside than Brown are signing for closer to $3M on short-term deals, so anything below $2.5M would be reasonable.
Connor Brown’s growth with the Oilers had endeared him to Oilers fans. His speedy, active play and ability to stand out on the ice had drawn positive attention his way even when he was struggling to produce.
Now that he has found a defined role, started producing more, and even elevated within the lineup, Brown has solidified an important place in this organization.
With him being on a one-year contract, it appears time to start looking at the potential details of his next deal with the Oilers.
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