The Edmonton Oilers are on a roll right now. They’re 7–1–0 in their last eight games, and the lone loss was a 1–0 defeat to Vegas in which they outplayed the Vegas Golden Knights. They’re looking like the team they were last season. Where did the wins and sudden improvement in play come from? It all stems, in my opinion, on November 23 against the New York Rangers. They followed that up with a win in Utah and a complete two-way effort against the Colorado Avalanche.
Let’s dive into the numbers from these games and see what’s improved most with the squad.
Tracking shots Edmonton has given up
Continuing on from my last two articles, I want to assess the types of chances the Oilers are giving up and how it’s been affecting their play on the season thus far. As I just alluded too, I want to go over the Rangers, Utah, and Avalanche games. The reason I will not include the games in December is that they will be included in next month’s edition of this article. Just a refresher on how we track shots.
@NHL_Sid, @Papa_Nurse25 on Twitter, and myself do the shot-tracking. @NHL_Sid started this shot-tracking project last season and was kind enough to let both PapaNurse and I work alongside him. These stats are coming from this project where we manually track each 5v5 shot attempt and shot on goal (blocked shots do not count). Here are the stats from the games I tracked. (Note: BT = Behind The Net, RR = Royal Road (across the slot in the offensive zone essentially—High Danger Chances come from here typically)
The passes within the offensive zone that completely crosses the royal road line you see highlighted are considered royal road passes.
Shots taken within the black grid are considered scoring chances. Any passes made within the trapezoid behind the net are considered BT passes.
A 6–2 win versus the Rangers
Oilers shot attempts: 37
Rangers shot attempts: 34 (32 in OZ)
Oilers 5v5 xG: 2.07
Rangers 5v5 xG: 2.35
Note: The number within the brackets indicates how many shots came off that shot type.
Rangers Shots:
| Shot Type | Assist Type | Chances | Goals | Odd-Man Rushes | Screens | Rebounds | Tips |
| Rush (11) | 3 | 1 | |||||
| Cycle (9) | 1 BT | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Forecheck (11) | 1 BT, 1 RR | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Faceoff (1) |
Yes, while it may of appeared the Rangers outplayed Edmonton 5v5, if you take a deeper look into the game, Edmonton handled the Rangers really well. In fact, off the rush, which is usually where the Oilers have issues and the most dangerous scoring opportunities around the league come from there, Edmonton only gave 11 shots with three of those coming into a scoring chance area. They gave the Rangers absolutely nothing besides one play off a tip. Same thing with faceoffs shown here.
Now, Edmonton tends to be a decent cycle team for and against, and it didn’t show well this night. While they did limit the amount of cycle opportunities for the Rangers which a measly nine, six came into a scoring chance area and set up the first goal of the game by Artermi Panarin. However, the boys did do a solid job of clearing any rebounds available. Finally, the Rangers forecheck, scoring one goal late in the game and setting up six scoring chances. Compared to games like Dallas, Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Detroit I tracked, which all saw those teams have under seven shots, it definitely was the weaker area for the Oilers, but in the end, it didn’t matter too much. A solid outing by Edmonton.
A 4–3 overtime win against Utah
Oilers shot attempts: 30
Utah shot attempts: 43
Oilers 5v5 xG: 1.39
Utah 5v5 xG: 2.65
Utah shots:
| Shot Type | Assist Type | Chances | Goals | Odd-Man Rushes | Screens | Rebounds | Tips |
| Rush (15) | 1 RR | 10 | 2 | 2v1 | 1 | ||
| Cycle (18) | 1 RR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Forecheck (7) | 2 BT | 5 | 1 | ||||
| Faceoff (1) |
Now, this game was the exact opposite of the Rangers game. In this first period alone, Utah had SEVEN rush chances and had SIX scoring chances, seven cycle shots, including a high danger rebound opportunity that led to the Logan Cooley goal and three forecheck chances. That period was probably some of the worst Oilers hockey in the Connor McDavid era, and yes that’s including the dreadful 2023–24 season start and the lottery teams we had in that span.
Thankfully, periods two and three were much, much better for the Oilers. They only gave up eight rush chances for the final forty and while four were scoring chances, it wasn’t as bad as the first period, they also only allowed three more cycle scoring chances and fended off the Hockey Club in the third pretty tightly. It was a game that saw the Oilers special teams eek out the win.
A 4–1 win against the Avalanche
Oilers shot attempts: 32
Avalanche shot attempts: 30
Oilers 5v5 xG: 2.00
Avalanche 5v5 xG: 1.98
Avs Shots:
| Shot Type | Assist Type | Chances | Goals | Odd-Man Rushes | Screens | Rebounds | Tips |
| Rush (6) | 2 | 1v0 | 1 | ||||
| Cycle (12) | 1 RR | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| Forecheck (5) | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Faceoff (2) | 1 |
Beautiful. Absolute beautiful game by Edmonton. Not only did they take Nathan Mackinnon, Cale Makar, andMikko Rantanen off the score sheet for the entire game, but they neutralized them 5v5. Off the rush, which is the Avs biggest strength—absolutely nothing besides a minor breakaway and a rebound in front of the net. Their forecheck? Non-existent. Faceoffs? Dominated by Edmonton.
The only minor nitpick you can say is that Edmonton let the Avs bigger bodies screen Stuart Skinner a few too many times, setting up five (four of which came off the cycle). But barring that, Edmonton played the perfect road game against a true Cup Contender.
Oilers are on a solid stretch
All in all, Edmonton played a solid eight out of nine periods to end the month of November, and have used that momentum into December, where historically they don’t do very well. They have a few tough games here ahead against Vegas (although we outplayed them both times thus far) and Florida. These games will be a huge test and a deciding factor of what this team truly is.
I also want to do another edition of these posts where I track the Oilers shots for (as well I am still planning on doing the shots period by period next time for games). Let me your thoughts below.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
