When the 4 Nations Face-Off was initially announced during the All-Star Break in February of this year, speculations as to who would be selected to represent their respective national teams (Canada, United States, Sweden, and Finland) were immediate. This, of course, included Connor McDavid who was named as one of the first six players selected to Team Canada. Leading up to the final roster announcements, a number of other players donning Copper and Blue have been linked to being selected for their respective teams such as Mattias Ekholm and Viktor Arvidsson.
Now that the final rosters are out, let’s have a look at which Oilers players were projected but missed out on being selected.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Former number 1 draft pick, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a talented, hard-working and one of the most coachable players in the NHL. He is a season removed from a 104-point campaign that included 37 goals while maintaining his reputation as a defensively responsible, offensive player. As a centre and left-wing in his natural position, he has also been incredibly versatile, having been utilized as a right-wing while playing on a line with McDavid. Given the productivity of the Zach Hyman-McDavid-Nugent-Hopkins line in the past, a strong argument was made to consider Nuge for Team Canada roster to maintain this chemistry and offensive output.
Of course, the inclusion into any national team depends on not only the player’s past performance and potential but also their current play and productivity. Unfortunately for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, his season has not been off to a strong start with 12 points in 25 games. This is significantly below his expected production and trails the performance of the other players that Nuge would have likely replaced on the roster: Brandon Hagel, Sam Bennett, Travis Konecny, or Anthony Cirelli.
In addition, Team Canada has always been known on the international stage for its’ strong physical play and it is hard to make an argument against a player of Sam Bennett or Seth Jarvis’ caliber who can be the solution to the eventual pestering expected from the Tkachuk brothers.
Zach Hyman
Since joining the Oilers’ three seasons ago, Hyman’s goal production has continued to grow. From 27 goals in 2021–22, to 36 goals the following year and finally, his career-high of 54 goals last season. His chemistry with McDavid this past season was undeniable and he simply knew how to find himself in the right place, at the right time. Given this, the case for Hyman to be included on Team Canada roster was certainly a strong one.
Similar to Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman has been snake-bitten this season. His eight points in 20 games is miles below what is expected of him. Despite his attempt of playing a hard and complete game this season (and with underlying numbers supporting this), he has had bad luck in putting the puck into the net. This, combined with a recent injury and strong play of some of the other players selected such as Brandon Hagel, has ultimately diminished his chances of being named to the final roster.
With that being said, Hyman has been largely consistent before this season and despite a tough start to the year, his chemistry with McDavid was clearly overlooked in making the decision to omit him from the final roster.
Evan Bouchard
The decision to omit Evan Bouchard was a bit of a head scratcher. Behind McDavid, Bouchard was the most likely Oiler to be named to the roster. His point-per-game production last season was only topped by his 32 points in 25 playoff games during the Oilers’ Stanley Cup run. Bouchard has continued his transformation as one of league’s top defenceman with his offensive game. His chemistry with linemate Mattias Ekholm, prior mentorship from Duncan Keith, and current coaching from the Oilers’ legend Paul Coffey have also helped to grow his defensive game further than before. As it currently stands, Bouchard leads all Oilers in scoring and ice-time with 18 points and 23:53 minutes per game played.
He has continued to be a consistent presence on the Oilers’ power play and knows how to maintain offensive zone pressure and create offensive zone opportunities.
The player to whom Bouchard likely lost his spot is Philadelphia’s Travis Sanheim. Sanheim has certainly had a great campaign by his standards, playing top minutes on a top pairing while on pace for his best offensive season. However, he has yet to show the same offensive upside as Bouchard and the underlying metrics support that as Bouchard’s expected goal percentage is almost 15 percent higher than Sanheim’s. In addition, Sanheim may have a bigger physical frame but he does not utilize it to his advantage as he has had only 19 hits this season
Furthermore, a comment often made about Bouchard talks about his supposed sub-par defensive play. However, as pointed out in the tweet below by X user @NHL_Sid, Bouchard has been having great underlying metrics that make the case for him being more defensively responsible than more than half of the other selections for Team Canada.
Evan Bouchard, supposed defensive liability and PP merchant, has been on-ice for fewer 5v5 goals against per 60 in the past two seasons (with *and* without Ekholm on-ice) than Toews, Parayko, Sanheim and Pietrangelo.
— Sid (@NHL_Sid) December 5, 2024
Just wanted to put that out there. Take that as you will. 🙂
This is not to say that Sanheim did not deserve his spot. Team Canada certainly has a number of other defencemen who have played well enough to be considered such as Noah Dobson or MacKenzie Weegar. Unfortunately for Bouchard, he simply did not make the final cut.
Stuart Skinner
Stuart Skinner has been linked to Team Canada in some of the prior roster projections. His strong play during the Oilers’ playoff run only added the fuel to the rumour fire. Skinner has had some challenging performances to start the season but his play is starting to find some consistency. When it came time to make the final roster selections however, Jordan Binnington, Adin Hill, and Sam Montembeault made the final cut.
While Binnington and Hill have championship experience as past Stanley Cup Champions, Montembeault is yet to finish a season with a goals against average (GAA) below 3.00, let alone play in big time games. This is something that can’t be said about Skinner who has not only played in multiple playoff elimination games including Game 7s, but has also held his own during these performances.
Even with Skinner aside, neither of the three goaltenders selected are statistically the best Canadian-born goalies in the league this season. Logan Thompson has some of the best GAA and save percentage, and his omission from the final roster certainly raises some eyebrows as to how Team Canada brass was making their decisions.
Moving on
While the Oilers’ faithful will be certainly happy to see their captain as part of Team Canada, along with Ekholm and Arvidsson suiting up for Team Sweden, it is hard not to feel wanting a better outcome for guys like Bouchard and Hyman. Time will tell whether the Team Canada brass made the best decisions in crafting its’ roster.
The decisions and omissions from the final rosters may certainly feel painful for these guys. But for a club looking to make another deep run into the playoffs, may this serve as the fuel and motivation for the players and the team that is hungry to lift Lord Stanley’s trophy.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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