The dynamic of having Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, two of the best hockey players in the world, on the same team can inevitably lead to one of them being overlooked. Similar to how Evgeni Malkin gets less recognition than he should for how good he is on the team behind Sidney Crosby.
But that is not indicative of much other than who is the primary recipient of attention. When the team has a generational superstar like McDavid, he will get the bulk of the attention.
We see this in the old saying, forgot about Drai. Everyone focuses on McDavid and then forgets they also have to cover or treat Draisaitl with the same respect.
There are some instances where Draisaitl shines and takes some of the attention for himself. He definitely grabs it in the playoffs, where he is just as good, if not better, than McDavid despite regularly being hampered by injuries limiting his shot and mobility in the postseason.
The other time is when McDavid is out of the lineup. Once Draisaitl is the number one guy on the team, suddenly everyone notices him and praises how good he is.
Is this a case of him stepping up his game and doing it all himself in McDavid’s absences? Or is it people forgetting about Drai when McDavid is in the lineup so he finally gets the recognition for his play when he is the number one? Let’s take a look at some numbers on Draisaitl’s performance when McDavid is out of the Oilers lineup to find out.
Draisaitl’s stats when McDavid is out of the lineup
Going back in their careers, Draisaitl “broke out” in 2016–17. However, McDavid did not miss any games in 2016–17 or 2017–18, so we will start with the 2018–19 season. This season was also when Draisaitl truly became a superstar in the league with his first 50-goal and 100-point season, so it will be the best to use to start this deeper dive.
McDavid also played all 56 games in the COVID-19 shortened 2020–21 season and all 82 games in the 2022–23 season. They will remain in the table to include Draisaitl’s points totals with McDavid in the lineup.
| Season | Games missed by McDavid | Draisaitl statline in those games | Draisaitl points per game with McDavid in lineup | Draisaitl points per game without McDavid in lineup |
| 2018–19 | 4 | 2G, 4A, 6PTS | 1.27 | 1.5 |
| 2019–20 | 7 | 4G, 8A, 12PTS | 1.53 | 1.71 |
| 2020–21 | 0 | N/A | 1.5 | N/A |
| 2021–22 | 1 | 1G, 0A, 1PT | 1.38 | 1 |
| 2022–23 | 0 | N/A | 1.6 | N/A |
| 2023–24 | 5 | 2G, 3A, 5PTS | 1.33 | 1 |
| 2024–25 (to date) | 3 | 3G, 3A, 6PTS | 1 | 2 |
| Totals | 20 | 12G, 18A, 30PTS | 1.35 | 1.5 |
Note: In 2021–22, McDavid and Draisaitl both missed the final regular season game versus the Vancouver Canucks. In 2023–24, McDavid and Draisaitl both missed the final regular season game versus the Colorado Avalanche.
Interestingly, Draisaitl’s points per game since 2018–19 when McDavid is in the lineup compared to when he is out of the lineup are very similar. Draisaitl has had 0.15 more points per game when McDavid is out of the lineup. For reference, this is approximately 12 points paced out over a full 82-game season.
Now, the sample size for games without McDavid is incredibly small. Just 20 games compared to the 443 with McDavid in the lineup. Usually, McDavid is not out of the lineup for a period of more than three or four consecutive games. So there is not much of a chance for Draisaitl to fully establish himself in the number one role.
But it is worth looking at as a quarter of a season’s worth of games is enough to at least establish a trend. If Draisaitl was truly incapable of holding his own as the team’s number one, we would probably see a drop as other teams send their best defensive matchups out against Draisaitl and shut him down more decisively than what we see here.
Draisaitl’s advanced stats with and without McDavid in the lineup
Again, noting the small sample size in general and some seasons with just a couple games of data, we can still look at and compile some other underlying numbers to see how Draisaitl’s game holds up and if he is outperforming or underperforming when McDavid is out of the lineup.
The following data is taken from Natural Stat Trick and reflects all strengths. Draisaitl’s time on ice per game, Corsi for percentage, goals for percentage, expected goals for percentage, scoring chances for percentage, and high-danger chances for percentage are compared in games that McDavid is in the lineup versus games that McDavid is out of the lineup.
| TOI/game | CF% | GF% | xGF% | SCF% | HDCF% | |
| without McDavid | 23:25 | 56.4 | 61.5 | 56.2 | 54.5 | 53.5 |
| with McDavid | 21:55 | 57.2 | 63.4 | 60.4 | 58.8 | 59.6 |
As expected, Draisaitl gets more ice time when McDavid is out of the lineup, about a minute and a half more per game. Which makes perfect sense when he becomes the number one, go-to player and centre in any situation.
The Corsi for percentage with and without McDavid in the lineup is close, indicating that the flow and control of play is practically the same in both situations. Despite likely getting the tougher matchups, Draisaitl (and whoever he ends up lined up with in these situations) are still generating over 56% of the shots and shot attempts while he is on the ice. The greater disparity may be seen looking at the team performance as a whole when the Oilers’ depth takes the hit of losing McDavid in the lineup.
Goals for and expected goals for also have small decreases, following the same trend. Draisaitl ends up facing the more difficult matchups, but he still performs highly.
Scoring chances go down a bit more than goals. Draisaitl is a potent scorer and a top-tier playmaker, so if he steps up in these situations, he capitalizes and makes the most of the slightly fewer chances.
Overall, the underlying numbers do indicate that the direction play generally trends in the Oilers’ direction when Draisaitl is on the ice with McDavid out of the lineup. They do drop a bit, which could be for a variety of reasons including more difficult matchups, such as playing against an opponent’s top line instead of their second line. But it does not seem to make a huge impact as Draisaitl ultimately ends up scoring at a similar, if not slightly higher, pace when McDavid is out of the lineup.
Does this mean Draisaitl truly steps up when McDavid is injured?
When McDavid is out of the lineup, every single spotlight in Edmonton, and many around the hockey world, immediately point to Draisaitl and put the pressure on him to lead the team. With his performance in these situations, many do promote the narrative that he steps up and is even better.
But, looking at the stats, it seems more in line to suggest Draisaitl is exactly as good as he usually is, which deserves the recognition in the first place, but it gets more attention when he is the number one player on the team. His points per game are not significantly higher and some key underlying numbers do go down (slightly) when McDavid is out of the lineup.
This also ignores some of the intangibles. When a team’s best player is injured, and the burden of filling those shoes falls farther down the lineup, it is invaluable to have a player like Draisaitl who can take control the way he does.
Even if he doesn’t suddenly start producing at an even higher rate, the fact that he can step in and maintain his elite level of play steps up in a different way is worth noting. He finally gets the recognition he deserves throughout the hockey world when the spotlight is shining on him.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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