With eight games played, the Edmonton Oilers have played almost 10% of their games this season. Now seems like a good time to take a look at how the season has gone so far, what are some of the storylines early on, and what the outlook for the remainder of the year could be.
Not as slow a start as last year
The Oilers are 3–4–1, which places them seventh in Pacific Division, 13th in the Western Conference, and 25th in the league.
That’s obviously very disappointing for a team many picked to be the Stanley Cup winner this year, and is reminiscent of last year’s terrible start. In the first eight games last year, the Oilers were 2–5–1, but were actually sixth in the division, but third last in the league.
It should be noted that it is so early in the season that the Oilers are just two points out of the second wildcard spot, so literally one win would flip the script. Well, a bit.
Also, the Oilers started the season with three straight losses, meaning they have “rallied” to a 3–1–1 record since. To contrast last year, the Oilers only had two wins in October, and didn’t get their third win until the 13th game of the season.
The hope is that this recent Oilers team is closer to what we will see for the rest of the season. The two losses the Oilers had were also games where the win slipped through their fingers.
Are these losses deserved?
Against Dallas, the Oilers dominated the shot clock, outshooting Dallas 11–2 in the first period. But a late second period goal by Tyler Seguin seemed to take the air out of the sails, leading to a 4–1 loss. Perhaps one goal by the Oilers during their period of dominance could have changed the outcome.
The loss against the Carolina Hurricanes in overtime was another lost opportunity. The Oilers held a 2–0 lead going into the third period, and got some heroic goaltending by Stuart Skinner…only to have made it all for nought literally seconds later:
The Hurricanes tied the game, and then with just seven seconds left in OT the Hurricanes scored to complete the comeback.
The last game, however, the Oilers looked locked and loaded, cruising to a 4–0 victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins. They absolutely peppered rookie goalie Joel Blomqvist, with 39 shots in the first two periods and finishing with a nice even 50 on the night.
Granted, all three of the Oilers wins have come against teams below them in the standings (although, Pittsburgh was ahead of them prior to their game). If that pattern holds, though, the Oilers would then be in line to win two of their next three games, as they have Columbus and Nashville on the calendar this week.
But Oilers fans are certainly hoping that the Pittsburgh game can be looked at as a turning point for the team this year.
The once dominant power play is gone
As usual, the Oilers power play is a big storyline of the season. However, it is because it has been anything but powerful.
The Oilers powerplay is currently 3 for 21, a lowly 14.3%. That is good for 26th in the league. By comparison, during the disastrous start last year, the Oilers still had the 10th best powerplay in the league at 24.1%.
While fans may bemoan the officiating and lack of calls some games (the Oilers are also 26th in the league in powerplay opportunities, just four ahead of last place), perhaps it’s been a blessing for the team.
That being said, the Oilers have scored power play goals in two games straight, so again one can hope that is a sign of good things to come for the woeful powerplay.
Penalty kill is also absent
The other end of special teams play has been even worse for the Oilers. They sit dead last in the league, killing just 58.3% of power plays. That’s a full 5% behind second last place Detroit. Last game, the 4–0 shutout, was only the second game this season the PK hasn’t conceded a goal.
Last season, the Oilers PK was middle of the pack, 15th place at 79.5%. Nothing to write home about.
But during the playoffs, the PK stepped up big time. The Oilers were first in the league at a ridiculous 94.3%. They also had just one less shorthanded goal (3) than power play goals they let in (4). Only two teams let in less goals over the playoffs: the Tampa Bay Lightning and Nashville Predators. But they each had 13 penalties to kill, versus the 70 the Oilers did.
Sure, no one really expected the Oilers to keep up that great of a performance in the regular season, but they certainly did not expect them to do basically the exact opposite. Perhaps the losses of Cody Ceci, Vincent Desharnais, Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele are bigger than we thought?
The Oilers desperately need the PK to step up to be at least average if they want to be able to be an actual contender.
Top players sputtering
Do you know how many Oilers are in the top 50 in scoring currently? After having four in the top 30 last year, you’d probably expect that same number. At the very least, there has be two, considering the Oilers have the best player in the game and a guy who is always in the debate for second best. Right?
Wrong. The Oilers currently have one player in the top 50, who is sitting at 46th (although technically tied for 38th). In fact, he should probably be ranked lower, since there are players tied in points with him who have played less games. That’s right, Connor McDavid is looking human, with just eight points in eight games. There is a Connor Mc who has a 1.33 points per game this year, but it is actually Connor McMichael.
Last year, after the horribad first eight games, the Oilers still had the number 10 scorer (Leon Draisaitl with 13), the 45th, 49th, and 54th scorers (Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard, and Connor McDavid with nine).
Granted, the last five games has seen improvement from the top guns. McDavid and Draisaitl both have six points while Bouchard has posted all four of his points this season during this time period.
The Pittsburgh game was again a positive sign for individual player scoring. Zach Hyman and Viktor Arvidsson finally got their first points of the season, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored his first goal of the season.
So the question continues to be if the players we have seen the last five games, and especially the last game against Pittsburgh, are the ones that will stay for the rest of the season? History would say most likely yes, but it was definitely a concern after the first three games.
Questioning Skinner’s ability to be the starter
Stuart Skinner currently has a 0.890 SV% and a 3.06 GAA, 38th and 32nd in league respectively. Those are not encouraging numbers and has led to the constant question of whether or not Skinner is able to be the goalie that can take the Oilers to the cup.
But if you take out just the first game against Winnipeg, Skinner’s numbers aren’t just better, they are a lot better: 0.915 SV% and 2.38 GAA. Finally, if you look at them over the last five games, they again improve to 0.920 SV% and 2.21 GAA.
Looks pretty good, right? Well, except that his 27-save shutout against Pittsburgh seems to be skewing the numbers just as much as that first stinker against Winnipeg. If you take those two games out, he is sitting at a 0.895 SV% and 2.98 GAA (he has let in three goals in each of those four games, but the extra time in overtime brings the GAA down a smidge).
Granted, you can certainly argue against Carolina he was much better than his 0.909 SV% would demonstrate. So far this season, he has three games below 0.900 and three at 0.900 or above. The three above, his record is 2–0–1, while the Oilers have lost all three below.
So really, the Oilers don’t need Skinner to be a superstar goalie, they just need him to be basically average. The question is, can Skinner be that average goalie consistently? Or will he flip back and forth between strong performances and weak ones?
What to expect for the next eight games
The Oilers next eight games are Detroit, Columbus, Nashville, and Calgary on the road, followed by a two-game homestand against the New Jersey Devils and Vegas Golden Knights, a quick trip to Vancouver for a game, and then back home against the New York Islanders.
While Columbus and Nashville are the only teams below the Oilers in the standings at the moment, Detroit, New York, and Vancouver only have one point more, so not exactly playing better than the Oilers and should be winnable games.
Calgary, Vegas, and New Jersey are all off to good starts this season and will certainly be tough matchups for the Oilers. I think the Oilers can play with a Jersey team that is also offensively minded, but I think Calgary is a young team with momentum who will get up and play their best against the Oilers. Vegas looks to be back to their old selves this year, although Adin Hill isn’t exactly impressing, giving the Oilers a chance.
My prediction? The Oilers ride their momentum from the win against Pittsburgh and win the next three against Detroit, Columbus, and Nashville, but follow that up with a loss in Calgary. They will beat New Jersey in OT, but then lose against Vegas in extra time, and have that weighing on them for the next game and drop that one against Vancouver too. After a bit of a reset they pull it out against the Islanders, bringing their record during this time span to 5–2–1 and 8–6–2 on the season.
We will see how right I am at our next Oil Check. Unless I was completely off, in which case I made no predictions whatsoever.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
One Comment