Tuesday night’s overtime loss against the Carolina Hurricanes marked the seventh game of the season and Zach Hyman has still not lit the lamp, nor found the score sheet in any way. By this time last year he already had two goals and seven points. After an astounding 54-goal season last year, fans have been hoping for more from Hyman.
The night saw the Edmonton Oilers break the current narrative in a few different ways: Connor McDavid, who can literally stick handle with one hand better than I can with two, lit the lamp twice, looking very much like he has returned to true McDavid form; Stuart Skinner, while not coming away with the win, stopped 30 of 33 shots, with some gorgeous, timely saves. The power play cashed in on only one of four opportunities, but where they didn’t score, they looked excellent, firing the puck around like their stick blades were connected on a wire.
For all the positives, the Oilers were still not able to leave with the win nor Hyman able to get the monkey off his back. The Oilers plight appears to be the same that is hounding Hyman right now. They aren’t playing all that poorly, and the statistics are generally in their favour, but the results are just not coming.
Is it bad luck for Hyman?
Any good Oilers fan knows what Hyman’s game is: park in front of the net and wait for the puck to come near enough to bash into the cage, and if instead the puck deflects off a body part you might usually sit on then just as well, they don’t ask how, they ask how many. That’s not to say that Hyman is not skilled, or helpful in any other way, he is a good passer, has a solid shot, and is a bulldog when fetching the puck in the corner, but he scores goals from within 10 feet of the net. Here is Hyman’s goal location chart from last year:
It is almost comical how many goals Hyman scored from the area smack dab in front of the net. Again, I’m not criticizing, it’s an important job, I know it’s important because he score 54 goals doing it. For good measure, here is Hyman’s shot location chart:
Naturally, this is exactly as expected. Hyman fired nearly 55% of his 290 total shots from his office in front of the net, scoring at a rate of 24.1%. Incidentally, Hyman’s 290 shots were 10th most in the NHL, 14th in the league in shots/60 minutes, among players seeing regular minutes. Hyman’s secret is taking a lot of shots. Here is his shot location chart for this year so far:
As you can see, Hyman is still shooting from his area, he’s doing exactly as he was last year, technically even more so since 57% of his 14 shots are from the area right in front of the net. For whatever reason, things just aren’t going his way, but if you have a hard time finding a reason for something it may be the case that there isn’t one. That’s most likely what going on here. Some time soon the shots will start landing for Hyman and the flood gates will open.
Hyman should follow Gretzky’s advice
By far the most well known Wayne Gretzky quote is “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” That is what Hyman should be whispering to himself as he brushes his teeth, as he puts on his Oilers jammies, as he tucks his nose into bed. The only difference between this year and last, besides the lack of goals, is that he isn’t shooting as much as he was. His shots/60 minutes sits at 6.41, the lowest it has been in five years, though still above average among player over 75 minutes played this year.
Hyman is still getting to the spots where he scores, still shooting from his spots. In the end, Hyman will be just fine, or, at the very least, it isn’t time to panic yet, just as it isn’t time to panic about the Oilers slow start. The Jets have started the season 6–0, remarkable to be sure, but no sane human thinks that means they’re going 82–0 this season. Hockey is a very streaky game. Just as the Jets won’t go 82–0, the Oilers won’t stay on this path and finish 23–47–12, and Hyman won’t finish the season with zero goals, or less than 35 if you ask me.
The Oilers themselves are still getting nearly as many shots per game, 32.4, as they did last year, 33.8 and the PDO, the possession estimators, the shot metrics, all point to the Oilers just having bad luck.
This is a long winded way of saying that the Oilers and Hyman are in the exact same boat, and when the Oilers turn it around, then so will Hyman, or vice versa. When the Oil sit first in the division, when Hyman lights the lamp thrice on home ice, we will all laugh smugly at our past selves for having been so silly.
stats from NHL.com, naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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