The last few days, while hard at work at my daily nonsense, I have had the Toronto Blue Jays games playing in the background. The Blue Jays just finished a three-game series against the Texas Rangers, the reigning MLB champions. Anyone who pays the MLB or the Blue Jays even the mildest attention knows that the Blue Jays are having a very “meh” year, but what you may not know is that the Rangers have essentially the same record as the Blue Jays. Now, the two best Rangers’ starting pitchers, two of the best starting pitchers in the league, have been injured most of the season but the hitting has also not been as expected. Dan Shulman, a Blue Jay’s commentator, remarked that if all the players of the Rangers or the Blue Jays would have just had an historically average year, both teams would probably be playoff teams. This is an extremely verbose way of illustrating that just because a team makes it all the way the previous year, it doesn’t mean that they are guaranteed the same success the following year.
The Edmonton Oilers didn’t win the Stanley Cup last year, but came as close as you can without winning it and as a result the pressure on the Oilers to win is as high now as it has ever been in recent memory. Fortunately, the team is probably the most encouraging it has ever been in the McDavid era, the additions of Jeff Skinner, and Viktor Arvidsson, the first full season of Adam Henrique, and the productive emergence of Evan Bouchard. I objectively think the Oilers should be the odds-on favourites going into this season.
What happens, though, if the Oilers mirror the Texas Rangers and individually come apart at the seams like my eight grade sewing project? Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are pretty much locks, they have slumps (point per game streaks) like everyone else, but they have never had entire bad years. As evidenced by the 2017–18 and 2018–19 years, McDavid and Draisaitl can have good years but the team does not do well. If three of Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Skinner, Arvidsson, or Henrique have bad years, the Oilers could be looking a very disappointing season in the face.
Can Hyman do his part?
Zach Hyman plays an important role on the Oilers. Last year, if the first line wasn’t firing on all cylinders the Oilers would have been in serious trouble. We hope and expect that the first line won’t need to be relied upon so heavily this coming year, but a strong first line is always important. Hyman is also a big part of the first power play, standing strong in front of the net, making it hard on the goalie, and pouncing on the juicy rebounds. This seems like a job any old fool could do but Hyman definitely does it better than some. He’s just hungry for the puck.
There are two important questions to consider about Hyman’s production this season. Will Hyman play on the first line with McDavid? and will Hyman play on the first power play?
Hyman And McDavid’s chemistry
I would consider it extremely likely that the Nugent-Hopkins-McDavid-Hyman line sticks together this year, they have established chemistry and produced at an incredible rate. They were one of the most dominant lines in hockey and even though Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson give Coach Kris Knoblauch a lot more strong options, it’s best to stick to what is proven.
Whoever they are, McDavid will donate points to his linemates like a billionaire in a PR crisis, while still keeping the lights on at his own house.
Can Hyman produce on his own?
That brings up the probably irrelevant question of whether or not Hyman can produce without McDavid. It’s a very difficult question to answer because since joining the NHL, Hyman’s most common two linemates always included at least one of William Nylander, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, Auston Matthews, McDavid, and Draisaitl, and often combinations of those.
It is obvious that Hyman’s production would decrease if he didn’t play with McDavid, but would he still be relatively productive? The reason I think yes is first, that, while the high quality of his line-mates has remained constant, Hyman’s PPG rate increased like clockwork in his first six NHL seasons, then again from 2021–22 to 2022–23. The two times it decreased were by no means significant. We’ll probably never know whether or not this extreme increase in skill is due to hard work and practice or his family’s wealth though.
Second reason is that Hyman is a bulldog, he wants the puck more than you. How many times have we seen Hyman out-muscle a larger defenseman to a rebound in front of the net. In the enclosed spaces of hockey, hard work counts for more than skill. Hyman has been given real consideration by TSN for Team Canada for the upcoming Four-Nations Cup and Olympics for this reason, and while he isn’t a name that comes up when you debate the Team Canada lineup over a beer with your friends, he has my vote. Too often Team Canada chooses too many uber-skilled players without considering who will do the dirty work.
So no, Hyman isn’t going to score 80 points on the third line, but I wouldn’t bet against 45 or 50.
Hyman on the power play
I would again consider it unlikely that the first power play changes. The Oilers have had extreme success with the current first PP of McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman, and Bouchard. The addition of Skinner and Arvidsson does make you wonder, but neither of them are front of the net players like Hyman.
I hate to say it, but putting Arvidsson in front of the net on the power play is asking for a lingering 40-game injury. Nugent-Hopkins’ PP job is probably more in jeopardy than Hyman’s, though I still think RNH stays on power play numero uno as he has the experience. The offseason additions most likely won’t upset the first PP so much as make the second PP much more threatening.
If, however, Hyman is unseated from the first power play then he will play in the same spot on the second power play. Last year the first power play was responsible for 55 of the 64 goals Edmonton scored, so being banished to the second PP really would detriment Hyman’s point totals. That being said, Hyman relied on his power play points the least among his first PP line-mates last season, he would be sitting at 57 without his 20 PP points.
While not playing on the first power play wouldn’t be so hard on Hyman’s points total, it wouldn’t be so gentle with his goals total. Hyman was praised for passing the heavily sought after 50-goal mark but he wouldn’t have passed 40 if it weren’t for his PP time. 15 of his 54 goals came on the power play, 27.7%. Though Draisaitl actually scored over 50% of his goals on the power play last year so it could be worse.
So missing out on the power play would definitely hurt Hyman’s new reputation as one of the best scorers in the league.
Hyman expected to have an amazing season
In the end, most of that is fear mongering, as Hyman is essentially guaranteed to be playing on at least the top two lines and to be playing on the first power play. Most likely Hyman will have a very similar year to last year. There is interesting precedent though. Individual point totals often decrease as teams get deeper, as the Oilers have this offseason. It will be interesting to see whether or not that will apply to the Oilers next season.
Barring the unlikely event of Hyman being demoted from the first line and PP, Oilers fans can expect production in the same tier as the past two seasons, not less than 65 points I predict.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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