Each year, there are players who hit significant milestones, whether it is a career one, such as 1,000 games played, or a seasonal one, such as hitting 100 points in a season. While the seasonal ones are no guarantees, the career ones tend to be a bit easier to predict, given the past history that leads up to the them.
Here are some Edmonton Oilers who have the ability to hit certain milestones, and my prediction on when they will.
Connor McDavid
1000 points
Connor McDavid is no stranger to hitting career milestones in his nine-year career. In fact, in the 2022–23 season, McDavid hit two point milestones: he scored his 700th point on October 12, 2022, the seventh fastest to do so, and then his 800th just four months later on February 21, 2023, the fifth fastest.
Entering this season, McDavid sits at 982 points in 645 games, meaning he is just 18 points away from potentially being the fourth to do in an Oiler uniform and the 99th player in NHL history to do so (the currently unsigned Phil Kessel is the closest active player at 992 points).
At his career pace of 1.52 points per game, McDavid would hit the 1000th mark in his 657th career game, or the 12th game of the season on November 3 against the Calgary Flames. While it would be great for him to do so against the Oilers biggest rival, it being an away game would be slightly disappointing.
Over the past three seasons, McDavid has 408 points in 238 games, or 1.71 points per game. That would mean he would score that 18th point of the season one game earlier, this time on October 31 against Nashville, but again on the road.
Last season, McDavid got off to an uncharacteristically slow start (at least for him), taking 17 games to score his 18th point. That was the worst of his career since his rookie season, where it also took him 17 games. The two years prior he notched it in nine games, however. All three years before that he took 11 games.
Another interesting thing to note is that McDavid is currently just 61 points behind Jari Kurri as the second highest point getter for the Oilers. It is also almost a guarantee that he finishes the season in that second place.
Prediction: Given McDavid’s penchant for stepping up at big times (he scored his 200th point on his 21st birthday in Vegas, for instance), I predict that he scores that 1000th point on October 25. That is the eighth game of the season, so it would be the shortest time frame in his career to hit 18 points in a season and would require a very hot start. But it is also a home game, on a Friday, against Sidney Crosby and Pittsburgh Penguins, which seems like a very fitting opponent to do so. It would also be his 653rd game, meaning he would beat out Mike Bossy by three to be the third fastest in NHL history to 1000 points.
As for getting that 62 point to take sole custody of the second all time points leader for the team, I will predict that will happen in Game 41 of the season, which also happens to be against the Penguins, because that would be hilarious.
700 assists
McDavid has yet another milestone in the crosshairs this year: he is 53 assists from 700 in his career. Currently 59 players have hit that mark, but with Alex Ovechkin only three assists away, it seems likely McDavid will become the 61st.
Last year it took McDavid 47 games to hit 53 assists. The year before it was 52, and 60 the year before.
Prediction: I will say he does it in 50 games this year, which would be January 27, 2025 against Seattle. Granted, his birthday is two weeks earlier, and 53 assists in 43 games isn’t necessarily impossible for McDavid. But let’s play it safe here.
73 game winning goals
McDavid currently sits second all time for the Oilers with a nice amount of 69 GWG. But he is just three back of Glenn Anderson’s 72. Scoring four this season is almost certain, given he has never had a season where he has scored less than five.
Prediction: While game winning goals can be difficult to predict, I am going to go with my “McDavid does big things in big moments” strategy and pick February 1, 2025 against the Toronto Maple Leafs for that fourth one of the season.
700 games
McDavid is 55 games away from meeting this plateau in games, and if he plays two more he moves into the top 10 in games played as an Oiler, slipping ahead of Craig MacTavish. McDavid could finish the season with 727 games, but unless Leon Draisaitl plays less than eight games, McDavid will still be in the 10th spot.
Game 55 is February 7, 2025 against Colorado, and Game 57 is February 23, 2025 against Washington, so those are my predictions.
Leon Draisaitl
400 goals
Draisaitl is currently at 347 goals, meaning he will need 53 to break the 400 goal plateau. He has only beat that amount once, when he scored 55 in 2021–22, but he did scored 52 one year later and has another 50 goal season under his belt, so it is certainly a possibility. One question is whether new wingers Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner, who are both goal scorers than playmakers, means Draisaitl ends up shooting less and dishing more.
Prediction: Given that this would be close to a career high for Draisaitl, if he hits the mark it will surely come at the tail end of the season. I predict it will be April 14 against the Los Angeles Kings, as I expect he will be a healthy scratch for the last game of the season to rest for the playoffs, and also Draisaitl hates the Kings so you know he would love to do it against them.
900 points
Unlike the goals milestone, 900 points is very much within sight. Draisaitl currently sits at 850 points, and in the worst full season in his career Draisaitl hit 51 points.
Last year, it took Draisaitl 41 games to hit 50 points. The year before that was just 30 games. So the question may be more of whether he can do it before the calendar flips to 2025 or not.
Prediction: Considering Draisaitl has hit over 100 points (or been on pace for it) every season since 2018–19, one would expect him to hit 50 points no later than in the 41st game, the halfway point of the season. Since Draisaitl looks to have upgraded wingers for this season, I predict he will hit that 50th point December 31, 2024, in Game 37. What a great way to say goodbye to 2024.
300 power play points
Draisaitl is just four points away from 300 on the man advantage, and considering how potent the Oilers PP is, Draisaitl could literally hit that in one game.
Prediction: Game 5 against the Nashville Predators on October 17, 2024, seeing as he has the most power play points against them (15) than any other team in the league.
800 games
At 719 games, Draisaitl has to play at least 81 games this season to hit the 800-games mark. If he does, he will move up to sixth all time amongst Oilers (although he just has to hit 797 to pass Horcoff to take that place). That means that on April 14 against the Kings, along with scoring that 400th goal he will get to celebrate the 800 mark. Plus it puts him at a 0.5 goal per game pace, which is pretty awesome too.
Evan Bouchard
200 points
After Evan Bouchard’s career year of 82 points last year, he is well within striking distance of his 200th point, just 29 away. Like Draisaitl, Bouchard has never had a full season in his career that low.
It certainly is a question of whether or not Bouchard will continue the point per game pace, although two playoff runs and a full regular season certainly lend credibility to it being the norm.
Last year it took Bouchard just 26 games to hit that mark. With the Oilers defence corps having taken a hit lately, losing Philip Broberg and Cody Ceci, does that aid or hinder Bouchard’s ability to pick up points?
Prediction: I think it takes Bouchard just over a point per game to hit it, potting that 29th point in Game 30 against the Vegas Golden Knights on December 14, 2024.
200 assists
Bouchard could hit a double double this year in terms of milestones (along with 300 games) by scoring 70 assists to make it a grand total of 200 on his career.
70 assists would be six more than his career year of 64 last year, which means it isn’t necessarily out of reach.
Prediction: If Bouchard does hit the 70-assist mark, he does it at the end of the season as well. So for funsies, I will say he does it on April 14, 2025 versus the Kings, and for extra points, he will get it assisting on Draisaitl’s 400th. So if you are looking for a game to buy tickets to, that’s looking like the one to be at.
300 games
At 265, Bouchard is 35 games away from the next games played milestone. The Oilers 35th game of the season is December 28 against the Kings.
Zach Hyman
200 assists
While Hyman had a career year last year in goals, he actually had the worst year in his Oilers career in terms of assists, with just 23. But he is still just four away from 200, so unless he is vying for the Cy Young this year he will probably get it.
Prediction: Hyman is more of a goal scorer, so it is definitely possible he hits four goals before four assists. But I think he can still get it done fairly early in the season and hits it in Game 5 on October 17, 2024 against the Nashville Predators.
400 points
If hitting 200 assists seems like a gimme, hitting 400 points is the guarantees of all guarantees. Hyman currently sits at 399 points, meaning he literally cannot hit 200 assists without hitting 400 points.
Prediction: While he can’t hit the assist milestone without hitting the point one, it does not work the other way. And so, I predict Hyman starts off the season like he left the last, scoring in Game 1 against Winnipeg on October 9 to hit 400 points. I’ll go even further and say he does it in the first period, BUT it is an even strength goal from at least as far out as the bottom of the circle. Talk about bold.
600 games
At 580 games, Hyman looks to make his 600th appearance in Game 20 against the Ottawa Senators on November 19.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
700 points
Like Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is just a point away from that next milestone, being 700 points. So yeah, he will hit it this year, it is just a question of when.
Prediction: It would be boring to say he hits it in the same game as Hyman. But also, they are linemates at even strength, and so like Bouchard and Draisaitl hitting the same milestone on the same goal, Nuge and Hyman will do it in the first game of the season. Hopefully the Oilers have a good saw in the equipment room, what with all these pucks they will have to be splitting in half.
500 assists
With 448 assists, Nuge is 52 away from 500, which would make him the sixth Oiler to ever do so with the team.
Nuge only got 49 assists last year, and actually only hit 52 once in his career, two years ago when he had 67 on his way to posting 104 points. That year, he scored 52 in his 69th game.
So this is another one that would seem to occur at the end of the season, if it even does happen.
Prediction: IF he gets it, it’s actually while he is having yet another monster season, rather than a tack on at the end of the year. So I will say it will happen in Game 63 against Dallas on March 8, 2025. Alternatively, he has a similar season to last year and scores it in Game 79 on April 11, 2025 against the Kings as a nice 32nd birthday present to himself.
900 games
Nuge is just 19 games away from becoming the third player to play 900 games in an Oilers uniform. If he plays a full season, he would be just eight shy from Smyth’s 971 in second place. But it does set him up to become the all time leader in games played the season after.
Like all the games predictions, I predict he hits in game 19, November 18th against Montreal.
Evander Kane
1000 games
At 930 games, Evander Kane is only 70 away from being the 399th player to play 1000 games in the NHL. Granted, there are 14 active players ahead of him, so it seems unlikely that he would beat all of them. But he could still be lucky 413th!
Of course, Kane’s health is an issue, with speculation going back and forth on whether he will start the season on LTIR or not. Kane only has 12 games he can miss this year to hit the 1000 mark still, and given that LTIR requires a player to miss a minimum of 10 games, if he does end up on it that will be a death sentence for this milestone.
So unlike the other games predictions, I don’t just think he won’t hit it in the first 70 games, I actually don’t think he hits it at all given the injuries. Of course now that means he will play all 82 to spite me.
300 assists
If Kane does play this season, then there is a chance he can hit 300 assists, given he currently sits at 291. Having hit his 300th career goal last year, that would make it two such milestones in his Oilers career.
Other than the health issue, another one that pops up for Kane is playing time. It appears that Kane will no longer be in the top six for the team, and so the question is how much he can produce from the bottom six.
Prediction: Assuming Kane does play games this year, I think it would take him a minimum of 30 games to hit nine assists, given he is more of a goal scorer in addition to his lack of ice time. So I will say best case scenario he hits it April 9, 2025 against the Blues, because we have to have some kind of big goal against that team this year.
1200 PIM
If Kane plays this year, this is the milestone that he will almost certainly hit, as he is just 14 penalty minutes away. That is just seven minors or three majors. Considering Kane has 198 PIM in his 161 Oilers games, I would bet good money that he does it.
Prediction: The difficult part with making this prediction is not knowing when Kane will be back in the lineup. I think he gets that 14th penalty minute in his 12th game, whenever that is.
Darnell Nurse
200 assists
Darnell Nurse is yet another player on the team in line to hit 200 assists this season, sitting at 191 in his career. Given he has posted at least 20 assists since becoming a full time NHLer in 2017–18, you can likely pencil him in.
Prediction: Nurse took 22 games last season to just hit nine points, and 22 games to hit nine assists the year before. Unless Nurse gets some more power play time this year (as the second unit may possibly get more action given the recent forward additions giving the Oilers more options), let’s stick with that 22 game figure and say he hits it on November 23, 2024 against the Rangers.
300 points
At 267 points, Nurse needs 33 to hit another milestone this season. He has had five straight seasons of scoring at least 33 points, and was just shy last year at 32 points. So while there is no guarantee, it is more than likely it happens.
Prediction: Nurse does end up getting more powerplay time as the season goes on, and so scored it in Game 65 against the Devils on March 13, 2025 en route to his third 40+ point season.
700 games
If Nurse ends up playing at least 62 games this season, and ends up playing five more than McDavid, then it would be him in that 10th spot in games played. Given those circumstances, I think I can speak for all Oilers fans when I say hopefully Nurse doesn’t hit the top 10 until next season, but that he does break the 700 game mark.
Viktor Arvidsson
200 goals
Newcomer Arvidsson has a chance at three different milestones in his first year as an Oiler.
The first is 200 goals, which would require him to pot 21 this season. Considering his career pace is just shy of 27 goals a season, and he will be playing with one of Draisaitl or McDavid, the biggest factor on whether he can make it is health.
He missed all but 18 games last season with a back injury, but didn’t appear to miss a step upon his return, posting six goals and 15 points plus another three points in five playoff games.
While Arvidsson won’t be playing first unit power play, other than two seasons ago he hasn’t been double digits in powerplay points anyway, so one would assume that won’t have too much of an effect on him.
Prediction: Assuming he can remain healthy and can mesh quickly with one of the Oilers top two centers, I predict Arvidsson has a career year and hits the 21 goal mark in game in Game 50 on January 27, 2025 against Seattle, but it won’t be a split puck goal with McDavid’s 700th assist.
200 assists
The second milestone in reach is just 17 assists away. While Arvidsson has actually scored more goals than assists three times in his career, he still tends to be close to an even split.
Prediction: Given the even split of his career, let’s say that January 27, 2025 game also, because why not?
400 points
If you are good at math, you’ve probably pieced out that the third milestone for Arvidsson is 400 points. You’ve also counted that he is 38 points away without me even telling you he is at 362 points in his career (and no, I definitely did not initially add up 21 goals and 17 assists as 48 points, ok?).
The only times Arvidsson hasn’t scored at least 38 points have been in injury shortened seasons, so again this one comes down to health.
Prediction: Again, you math-magicians will note that if I predict his 200th goal and his 200th assist on January 27, it is impossible for him to score his 400th point in any other game. So actually maybe buy tickets to this game instead of the April 14 one.
600 games
Arvidsson is sitting at 546 games, meaning if he can stay healthy, he should pass the 600 game mark this year. For Oilers fans sake, let’s hope that happens in Game 54.
Jeff Skinner
700 points
The second of the Oilers big offseason acquisitions is also in line for a big milestone. Skinner is just 30 points away from 700 in his career.
While some people may just look at the fact that Skinner was bought out as a way of saying he is washed up, those people would be wrong. Skinner still posted 46 points last year, and the only times he hasn’t scored at least 30 points in a season in his career have been shortened ones.
Like Arvidsson, Skinner should be looking at a spot alongside one of Draisaitl or McDavid and one would think his numbers will go up, not down.
However, also like Arvidsson, Skinner won’t be in line to get top power play minutes. Unlike Arvidsson, Skinner has relied on the power play a bit more, as about a quarter of his points come with the man advantage. That likely will have an effect on his totals this year.
Prediction: Skinner’s career point per game would have him scoring his 30th point in the 45th game, and given the hope that he gets a bump at even strength in contrast to lower powerplay time, let’s say it evens out and he stays the same. That means he hits this milestone on January 16, 2025 against Colorado (although I would be ok if it took him an extra four games to do it against Buffalo, the team that bought him out. We love that kind of petty).
A playoff game
Skinner has the record for most regular season games without playing in a single playoff game. That streak *should* end this season, playing with a team that has made the playoffs every year since 2020. Oilers fans are praying this isn’t a “Corey Perry makes the Finals and loses every year” kind of mojo.
Connor Brown
100 goals
Brown is just six goals away from this milestone, and usually you would expect a guy with 94 career goals 519 games to be a lock for that.
But, in case you didn’t hear, Brown struggled a bit in scoring goals last season, not finding the back of the net until his 55th game.
But he would score another three over the next 16 games he played, plus two in 19 playoff games. Brown went from public enemy #1 to a fan favourite in the playoffs, finding chemistry with Adam Henrique and Mattias Janmark as a solid third liner plus huge penalty killer.
So one hopes that Brown has refound his game and will not struggle as much as last season, even if he continues in a bottom sic role.
Prediction: I’ll say the Brownmark duo continues their chemistry and Henrique helps add an offensive touch to their line and he finishes the year with at least 10 goals. That means he would hit that 6th goal in and around Game 50…
No, I can’t in good conscious pick another milestone for that game. So let’s go with the game before, January 25, 2025 against Buffalo. Granted, with a birthday on January 14, he also has the ability to get a birthday milestone present, but let’s not put too much pressure on the guy.
600 games
Brown is currently at 519, which means he will have to stay healthy and not be healthy scratched like last season in order to hit 600. Given an increase in play quality, one would think he can do it.
Mattias Janmark
200 points
The other part of the dynamic Brownmark, the “Janitor” is just five points away from his 200th. Considering last year was his worst statistical year of his career and he still scored 12, this is another one you can put your money on happening (he even had eight points in the playoffs!).
As mentioned, Janmark likely goes from fourth line regular to the third line with Brown and Henrique, and so one would think that will help juice his performance a bit. After all, he did score 25 points in his first season as an Oiler just two seasons ago.
Prediction: Janmark’s career average is around one point every three games, so let’s stick with that and say he does it Game 15 on November 9, 2024 against the Vancouver Canucks.
600 games
Yet another Oiler looking to hit this milestone, Janmark is 43 away at 557 games currently.
Stuart Skinner
100 wins
The final realistic milestone watch for the Oilers (other than games played below) is Skinner becoming the sixth Oilers goalie to secure 100 career wins.
Currently sitting at 72, Skinner needs 28 to get there. He won 29 in 50 games as a rookie, and 36 last season in 59 games. Skinner is again the Oilers starter entering the season, and so one should expect him to pass the 28-win mark for a team expected to be a contender, especially as he doesn’t have any real competition for the feature role this season.
Prediction: This one is a little harder to predict on exact dates, since goalies don’t play every game. I will predict he hits the 28-win mark in his 42nd start though. Assuming Skinner starts three out of every four games, that means his 42nd start would be Game 56 on February 22, 2025 against the Philadelphia Flyers.
Another potential “milestone” for Skinner is to enter the top five in Oilers goalies wins. 33 wins would pass the 104 that Cam Talbot racked up in the Blue and Orange, and it certainly is a realistic possibility for this season.
Skinner is also just one shutout away from top 10 amongst Oilers goalies, and four away from top five. Both are certainly possibilities, but as a goalie with four shutouts in his career total it may be asking a bit much.
Games played milestones for other players
Other players on the team that have the ability to hit just games played milestones are:
- Mattias Ekholm: 900 games (currently at 819)
- Brett Kulak: 500 games (currently at 498)
- Derek Ryan: 600 games (currently at 570)
- Troy Stecher: 500 games (currently at 494)
- Josh Brown: 300 games (currently at 290)
- Vasily Podkolzin: 200 games (currently at 137)
Extremely unlikely but wouldn’t it be fun?
These are some that are “technically” possible, in the sense that they have been done before in a single season by a player, but are pretty unrealistic for these players. But if they were to happen, well the Oilers would be a lock for the Presidents’ Trophy one would think.
- Connor McDavid: 400 goals (65 away)
- McDavid’s career high in goals was 64 two seasons ago, so we know he has the ability to score 65. The question is if he puts his mind to it the way he did that year (or the way he put his mind to 100 assists last season). If he does, then this one actually becomes pretty realistic.
- Leon Draisaitl: 1000 points (150 away); 600 assists (97 away)
- Sure, only six players in leagues history have scored 150 points, and McDavid is the only player in 27 years to do it, and McDavid and Nikita Kucherov last year were the fifth and sixth players to have 100 assists and the first do so in 33 years. But Draisaitl could.
- Adam Henrique: 300 assists (33 away)
- Granted, he’s only scored 33 assists once in his career (when he was rookie), and only averaged that two other seasons.
- Brett Kulak: 100 assists (21 away)
- Yes, his career high is 17, but that was just two years ago and with Cody Ceci and Philip Broberg gone, Kulak looks to have a bigger role on the blue line which could result in a bit of a boost.
- Corey Perry: 500 assists (24 away)
- Perry is definitely at the tail end of his career and slowing down, plus he looks to be on the fourth line, if he even plays. He also hasn’t had 24 assists in a season since 2017–18, (he did have 21 three years ago) but if he were to find a fountain of mid prime even it could be possible.
- Jeff Skinner: 400 goals (43 away)
- Does Skinner score three more than his career high given his linemates? You could say it’s possible, especially since his career season of 40 only had eight power play goals. But it seems unlikely he makes that up at even strength still.
- Troy Stecher: 100 assists (9 away)
- If he is a regular in the lineup, this one definitely becomes much more realistic, given his career average is 15 per 82 games, and in fact two seasons ago he score 11 assists. But will the Oilers look to add another defenceman to push him down? What about other internal players like Josh Brown or recently acquired Ty Emberson? Plus there is Stecher’s injury history, making this one a bit of a risk.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
