The Edmonton Oilers have five more days in which to either match or not-match the offer sheets for Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway and this one could go either way for them. However, whether they do or do not sign the players, the impact on the team is massive. If they do sign one or both, there are lingering implications to the team’s salary cap, especially around how they will be able to sign Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard.
On the other hand, if they do not sign either or both, the team’s depth takes a massive step backwards. Let’s take a look at the impact.
Losing Holloway would be a big loss up front
The offer sheet for Holloway is much easier for the Oilers to stomach at a respectable $2.29M for the next two season. This is still an overpay for the winger who played 38 regular season games last year.
Holloway had decent numbers, finishing with nine points in the regular season but then added seven in 25 playoff games. He was exactly the type of depth player that the team needed last season, able to provide scoring undoubtedly, but also hold his own defensively. The winger finished tenth on the team in Corsi for percent, with a respectable 48.3% through the playoffs, while also being on the right side of the goals for percentage, high danger chances for percentage, and expected goals for.
The key for Holloway is that he spent time playing alongside the Oilers’ top players and has developed chemistry with them. Holloway spent time with Adam Henrique and Leon Draisaitl, and formed effective partnerships with both during the playoffs. This chemistry makes a difference for the team going forward, as anyone new that they called up would need to find that chemistry with the team before they really got going.
In terms of internal replacement options, the Oilers have James Hamblin and Roby Jarventie as the only two left shot winger options. Hamblin played 31 NHL games last season and had just three points. In 13 AHL games in his injury-shortened year, he had eight points. Nothing really to write home about for the 25-year-old. Further at 5’9″, Hamblin does lack the size and strength that Holloway has.
Acquired from Ottawa, the Finnish Jarventie played seven NHL games last year recording one assist and had 20 points in 22 games in the AHL. Jarventie is probably close to NHL-ready this season, but you really do not know what you have in him at the next level? It will likely take him a handful of games to build that chemistry and develop the speed for the NHL game before he can make an impact.
The other name to consider is can Matthew Savoie be an NHLer next year. While he is a right shot centre, the Oilers could move pieces around to give him a look. He got into an NHL game last season, but spend the season in the WHL with Moose Jaw and Wenatchee as one of the league’s top players. He probably needs more seasoning in the AHL first before he can be an NHLer, but there’s possibility there at the earliest midway through the season.
None of these players really do what Holloway does aside from Savoie, and the latter probably isn’t going to be NHL ready at least till mid-season. Even then, do you really want to rush him into the NHL right now if he’s not ready? Losing Holloway is a major loss for this team.
The Oilers do not have enough depth to replace Broberg
Somehow worse would be losing Broberg. Sure, he is definitely worth the $4.58M that the Blues agreed to pay him for the next two years, but he is the best defenceman in the organization that isn’t in the NHL by some distance.
Broberg did take massive strides this season, appearing in 12 regular season games and ten playoff games for the team, and while his numbers weren’t great overall, he finished third on the team in points-per-60 in the playoffs, with 1.14. Young defencemen take time to blossom in the NHL, but to see him hold his own in the playoffs was a major sign that there is a ton of potential in the former first round pick.
This was going to be the year for Broberg to break into the NHL. The left shot blueliner was expected to play a ton of NHL minutes this year, potentially earning a full time role this year, but not at the price point that the Blues paid him. If the Oilers were able to lock him up at a number between one and two million, it would have been a perfect fit. At $4M, it’s a massive overpayment, and one the team will struggle to match.
The trouble is who fills his spot? The Oilers have a strong top pairing in Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard, but then a hodgepodge of Darnell Nurse, Cody Ceci, Brett Kulak, Troy Stecher, and Josh Brown. Yikes. Without Broberg, the team would technically be fine to ice a roster, but this blueline inspires zero confidence, especially following the playoffs last year where the Nurse-Ceci pairing struggled game after game.
The other challenge is that the entire Oilers blueline is 30 or over except Bouchard, at 24, and Nurse, who is 30 in February. Age is going to hit this blueline quickly.
Internally, the Oilers’ blueline depth is exceedingly weak. Connor Carrick could slot in to the lineup in a pinch, but he too is 30. As for prospects, you have Beau Akey, who put up nine points in an injury-shortened 14 game season with the Barrie Colts. He’s probably at least a couple years away as well.
Seventh round pick Max Wanner is also in the mix, but he just finished his rookie AHL season with 17 points in 68 games. He’s also at least a year or two away and will need to show more if he wants to be an NHLer.
There really isn’t much in the pipeline. This would have been a great season for the Oilers to have drafted a blueliner when they traded up into the first round. With Charlie Elick, Alfons Freij, Cole Hutson, Henry Mews and others still available on the board, the Oilers elected for a centre in Sam O’Reilly, and while the London Knights star looks quite good, the team really did not need another forward and nor did they need one who is probably two or three years away.
The team’s lack of defensive depth has been a conversation since seemingly time immemorial but it feels like now this has caused it to be a much larger issue than ever before.
Is it worth keeping both Broberg and Holloway?
On paper, the answer is clearly yes. The Oilers are a much better team with Broberg and Holloway in the lineup, even if having them will cost the team a pretty penny. The bigger question that remains is why on earth they ended up in this position in the first place?
At the start of the summer, numerous websites speculated about this as a distinct possibility, with The Win Column calling for the Calgary Flames to offer sheet both of these players for the exact amount that the Blues did. The team should have prepared better for this scenario, and if the numbers being thrown around about what Holloway and Broberg wanted are true, the fact that the Oilers didn’t get it done is downright baffling.
The team has put itself in this position completely of its own volition and this is something that the organization needs to have a long and honest conversation about, but now the question is how do we right the ship and move on from here.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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