Last week, rumours heated up that Leon Draisaitl had agreed to a contract extension with the Oilers. Those rumours were shut down, but not in the sense that a contract was not going to happen, but more of a question of when.
In addition to when, the pertinent question is “how much?” There has been speculation that he is willing to take a “team friendly” deal in the hopes of winning a cup and that he is looking at a long term, seven- or eight-year contract.
At the end of the day, speculation is speculation and we just have to wait to see what the number is if/when the deal is actually signed. But if you, Oil Country, were in charge of the negotiations, how much would you sign Draisaitl for?
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Realistically fans think $13M to $14M
Almost half of the votes (46.9%) went to this range, and honestly it makes the most sense, even if you ignore the rumoured amount of $13.8M that somehow came about.
Currently, the highest AAV is the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Auston Matthews at $13.25M. When Matthews signed that contract, the salary cap was $83.5M, making it 15.87% of the salary cap at that time (it should be noted that it was an extension to kick in this year, meaning it ended up being 15.06% of the cap in its first actual year). He had two Rocket Richards, a Hart, Ted Lindsay, and Calder trophy to his name at the time. He had scored 40 plus goals five times, one of which was 60 goals, and hit 100+ points once, with a career PPG of 1.12.
The second highest cap hit, and the one that held the title of highest at the time it was signed, is Nathan MacKinnon at $12.6M, or 15.27% of the cap at the time it was signed. MacKinnon was coming off the high of the Colorado Avalanche winning the Stanley Cup, but otherwise had just a Calder and Lady Byng to his name, no 100-point seasons (but one at 99 granted) and a career PPG of 1.02.
Draisaitl comes into this contract extension with an Art Ross, Hart, and Ted Lindsay, while posting three 50+ goal seasons, two 40+ goal seasons, five 100+ point seasons, and a 1.18 PPG over his career. He also 41 goals and 108 points in 74 playoff games. By comparison, MacKinnon had 96 points in 70 games, while Matthews had 44 points in 50 games.
One interesting comparison between MacKinnon and Draisaitl is that they signed contracts after their ELCs that initially looked to be a bit high that then turned out to be ridiculous bargains based on their increase in performance. MacKinnon’s was a seven-year contract at $6.3M per year, or 8.63% of the cap, while Draisaitl signed an eight-year contract at $8.5M per year, or 11.33% of the cap. Draisaitl was coming off of a 77-point season and a 16 point in 13 games playoff performance, while MacKinnon had just finished his third season at 52 points, having not matched his rookie season in goals, assists or points.
MacKinnon’s contract was definitely looked at as one where a little bit more was added to make up for the previous bargain, and so that same argument could definitely apply to Draisaitl.
I would say that MacKinnon therefore would be a pretty good comparison for Draisaitl. Using the 15.27% cap hit puts an amount of $13.44M, or almost dead centre of this range.
So a contract around $13.25 to $13.5M appears to be within reason given the comparables.
Whether that would fit in with the narrative of a team friendly deal is debatable. I would argue if it is right at $13 million, then it is friendly-ish, but not enough of a discount to really be called that.
But in terms of market value, somewhere in this range is definitely the right answer.
A team friendly deal between $12M and $13M
At a very close second place was this range, which 41.3% of people thought was the correct choice.
This isn’t surprising either, given the math above plus the mention of a potential team-friendly deal.
The only other player after Matthews and MacKinnon making more than $12M per year is Draisaitl’s teammate, Connor McDavid, at $12.5M. Hmmm I’m sensing a trend, perhaps if Draisaitl’s name was Maisaitl then he would be guaranteed these high amounts. It should be noted McDavid signed his contract extension when the cap was $75M, working out to a whopping 16.67% (it would drop to 15.72% when it actually started).
After that, the next three highest forwards are Artemi Panarin at $11.64 M (14.29% of cap hit at the time), Elias Pettersson at $11.60M (13.18%), and William Nylander at $11.50M (13.07%). Granted, both Pettersson and Nylander signed mid-season when the cap wasn’t confirmed for the next season, and so at that time it would work out to 13.89% and 13.77%. Using those percentages, you get a range of $11.50M to $12.58M.
I think that everyone can agree that Draisaitl deserves to make more than Pettersson and Nylander, and also that those two contracts have shown an increase in upcoming contracts in anticipation of a rising cap.
Therefore, an amount around $12.50M could certainly be looked at as a good compromise between fair market value and team friendly deal. Perhaps it helps that that is McDavid’s current number, although an internal cap amount didn’t stop Darnell Nurse from getting a bigger contract than Draisaitl.
$11M to $12M may be too low
A distant third at 7.7% of the votes, this seems like the most unrealistic scenario. As seen above, I can’t imagine Draisaitl taking under $12M given the comparisons.
But, if Draisaitl did do that, it would not only be team friendly, but putting the team completely above his own interests. It would be every Oilers fans’ dream to see a contract in this range, as frankly the only player currently in this range that you can argue is in Draisaitl’s caliber is David Pastrnak at $11.25M, which was considered a bargain immediately after it was signed.
Over $14M is just too much
In last place with 4.2% of the votes is the first cap hit starting with a 14 in the salary cap era. Does Draisaitl deserve that honour, and to be $750, 000 more than the current record of $13.25M?
We’ve done the math above comparing Draisaitl with those who have the highest cap hits.
Above I mentioned MacKinnon as the comparator, but if we use Matthews’ 15.87%, we get $13.97M, which is basically as close to $14M as you can get.
One argument that will surely be brought up is that Draisaitl isn’t “the guy” on his team, unlike MacKinnon and Matthews, and therefore the highest NHL contract shouldn’t go to a player like that. There is definitely some merit to that, although you have to remember that MacKinnon has had Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar, and Gabriel Landeskog supporting him, and Matthews has had Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the salary cap is expected to continue jumping up, now that the COVID-19 pandemic debt that kept a relatively flat cap is over with. So within two years, it is certainly feasible that Draisaitl at $14M is under 15% of the cap. Draisaitl will also be the highest paid player for just one season, as Connor McDavid is up for an extension next season. There are also upcoming big name UFAs in the next few years that might earn more if the cap continues to go up, such as Makar, Nikita Kucherov, Kirill Kaprizov, and Auston Matthews once again.
But still, over $14M under the precedents set would certainly not be considered team friendly in any sense of the word, so if that part of the rumours is true then this is likely not happening (or at least Oilers fans hope so).
At the end of the day though, I don’t know if you will find a single Oilers fan who would be mad if Draisaitl did sign that big of a contract if it means keeping him (and therefore likely McDavid) for another eight years.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
