It can be hard to tell how much stock to put into rumours, but there is a lot of optimism surrounding the pending contract negotiations for the Edmonton Oilers three best players, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard. The Oilers core trio is rumoured to be willing to take some sort of hometown discount to stay in Edmonton. With Draisaitl and Bouchard already eligible for extensions, in the final year of their deals, and McDavid slated for unrestricted free agency a year later (contract ending after 2025–26), the infrastructure of a perennial contender is destined for change.
Let’s take a look at what should be expected from team-friendly contracts for the Oilers trio, and how they might help the Oilers extend the championship window that exists because of their elite talent.
McDavid maxing out a deal?
Much as was the case the last time that McDavid was up for a contract, he is the best player in the world. In the prime of his career, McDavid is owed the league’s most expensive cap hit, and certainly his peers will be looking to him to continue to push salaries upwards. Theoretically, McDavid is entitled to a max deal, or 20% of the cap ceiling. Considering a $4M rise to the cap each season, a max contract would be just over $19M per season.
Adjusting McDavid’s current cap hit percentage for the overall cap’s inflation since then would give McDavid about a $15M cap hit on his next deal. McDavid did leave money on the table last time, and signing this deal would be equally team-friendly. While an even bigger discount this time around might be possible, $15M would be a great price for the Oilers.
Should McDavid consider anything less than that, he should still be the highest paid player. It is unlikely that any player surpasses Auston Matthews’ league leading $13.75M deal until that time, save perhaps for Connor Bedard, though the phenom still has a long ways to go before that. McDavid agreeing to a contract with a cap hit between $14M and $15M would be more than generous to his team, and would be a huge statement that he is prioritising team success.
By design a number of contracts come off the books when McDavid is up for a new contract. Adam Henrique, Evander Kane, Viktor Arvidsson, Mattias Ekholm, and Brett Kulak’s deals all expire alongside McDavid’s, representing more than $20M in cap space coming off the books. In short, the Oilers will not be short of space to fit McDavid’s upcoming raise.
As will be a theme with these elite players, the priority will be to agree to whichever term that will keep the costs low. A shorter deal might give them other opportunities down the road, perhaps able to reprioritize different goals later, but the fleeting nature of athletics might make long term stability too good to pass up. The pessimistic might suggest any long contract is a risk, but if their top players are longer worthy of top salaries they might have bigger problems than cap space.
One side or the other might decide to thread the needle more aggressively, taking a short term deal, but there is little concern with returning all-time greats.
Draisaitl soon to make a deal
Draisaitl might not be thought of as the second best player in the world anymore, but he is certainly among the upper echelon of the league. Even despite slowing down towards the end of the Oilers long playoff run, Draisaitl is proven to be one of the great playoff performers of all time as well. By cap dollars his deal should come in above Elias Pettersson’s cap hit of $11.6M, as well as William Nylander and David Pastrnak at $11.5M. At an equal cap percentage, to Pettersson, Draisaitl’s deal would come in at about $12M.
To some extent, matching McDavid’s current cap hit of $12.5M is probably the ceiling for a Draisaitl hometown discount. Even the most optimistic fans would expect at least a $10M cap hit for Draisaitl, as anything under $11.5M would be a huge statement.
We can expect that upcoming free agents Mikko Rantanen and Mitch Marner will be in the ballpark to get similar high priced deals over the next calendar year. It will be interesting to track how these three handle their respective negotiations, but given the expectation of a hometown discount it is unlikely that Draisaitl ends up being the most expensive of the three.
Bouchard’s unpredictable upcoming contract
The youngest and least established of this group, Bouchard’s deal might be the hardest to project. A pending RFA with arbitration rights, the Oilers might be tempted to bridge Bouchard to a shorter deal once again, keeping costs as low as possible through McDavid and Draisaitl’s 20s. At the very least Bouchard will earn more than the recently extended Brock Faber, who signed at a $8.5M cap hit. The upper limit might be the Rasmus Dahlin cap hit of $11M. One might argue that Bouchard deserves a percentage adjusted contract equal to Dahlin, but the basis of any hometown discount begins with at most equalling the Dahlin cap hit.
A more useful baseline might be an internal contract, that one way or another Bouchard will become the Oilers highest paid defenceman, surpassing Darnell Nurse’s $9.25M cap hit. Many of the league’s top earning defencemen are capped out at about $9.5M including Charlie McAvoy and Adam Fox. Inflation adjusting to $10M would be reasonable and deserved. One might argue that Noah Dobson is a comparable, promising young right shot defencemen already leading their team’s blueline.
The Oilers may be bottlenecked
A conservative $10M cap hit on a Bouchard extension would still represent a $6.1M raise. The Oilers do have some cap relief to accommodate a near $4M raise for Draisaitl, given a projected cap increase, but coinciding with Bouchard’s raise will make a bottleneck for the Oilers to try to squeeze through.
The Oilers do have some cap relief en route, with James Neal’s buyout, decreased relief from Jack Campbell’s buyout, bonus rollover from Connor Brown’s 2023–24 bonus, and contracts for Jeff Skinner and Cody Ceci coming off the books, totalling about $9.5M. Even with the contracts coming off the books, replacements must be found, which should be costly enough that lopping off an extra $1M between Draisaitl and Bouchard is still not enough to keep the Oilers cap compliant.
In short this means that extremely team-friendly cap hit of $11M for Draisaitl and $9M for Bouchard are not affordable for the Oilers. This means we should see the Oilers attempt to free up some more cap space before next season, getting rid of a player of significant salary under contract for 2025–26. There are two obvious candidates, Brett Kulak at $2.75M, and Evander Kane at $5.125M.
Trade options for more cap space
Kulak is more important to the team’s success at this point, as Kane’s effectiveness waned in a season hampered by injury to some extent. Even with a bounce back, Kane is more expensive than recently signed scoring wingers Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson. Kane’s 16-team no trade list will make him more difficult to move, though a buyout or a move to LTIR might be options as well. At the very least, Kane should help the Oilers this season, and there is no hurry to force a deal until next season.
The same might be said for Kulak, though his cap hit is not as substantial. It would be easier to deal Kulak, though this route would require a greater deal of finesse and finagling from the Oilers in balancing the books. At the very least, dealing Kulak could be enough to keep the rest of the team intact while extending Draisaitl and Bouchard.
The most extreme option would be to move off of Darnell Nurse. While his costly contract outweighs his contributions, Nurse is still a big part of the Oilers strength in a way that Kulak and Kane are not. Many fans would like to see Nurse moved on principle, as it would open up enough space that none of these extensions are much concern to the Oilers. Given his popularity among teammates, a Nurse trade is unlikely at this point, and might require the Oilers to take on a less than desirable cap hit of their own.
With a no movement clause, Nurse does not have to accept any trade the Oilers come up with, either. While there may or may not be some merit to thinking that the Oilers would be better off without Nurse all things considered, it is very unlikely that will be a possibility that the Oilers consider. Nurse’s full no move changes to a 10-team no trade list in the final three years of his deal, from 2027–28 to 2029–30, meaning any hopes for a Nurse trade should be held off until then.
In fairness to Nurse the Oilers could get more from him if deployed with a more favourable partner. Any attempt to get cap value from Nurse at this point should be directed towards supporting him. If he can maintain his level of play, the rising cap will make Nurse’s deal more palatable for the Oilers, and he can still be a big part of a Stanley Cup winning Oilers roster.
Big picture
In all, the rumours that the Oilers star players are willing to take discounts to keep the team together is meaningful. The Oilers have options to remain cap compliant for the bottleneck of the 2025–26 season, when Draisaitl and Bouchard’s next deals begin. Where there is a will, there is a way, and the Oilers seem to be in reasonable shape in keeping their team together into McDavid’s next contract.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
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