Edmonton Oilers

Connor Brown looking to continue to build on a strong postseason run for the Edmonton Oilers

Regular season Connor Brown and postseason Connor Brown were two tales of a season that could only be described as middling. The start of the season could not have gotten worse for his first in the Copper and Blue, as he failed to record a goal until his 51st game of the season, even then, it only redirected off of him, never touching his stick.

But the second half is where Brown endeared himself to the fan base; for after netting his first of the season, the crowd gave him a standing ovation. Furthermore, he cemented himself in the hearts of Edmonton fans through the valuable role he played in the playoffs, forming a dynamic third line alongside Adam Henrique and Mattias Janmark, scoring big-time goals during pivotal moments (Game 6 breakaway). In this role, Brown established himself as a speedy, checking forward, providing excellent results on the penalty kill, and totaling six points, scoring twice, and adding four assists.

International play

Brown has never really held the opportunity to represent Canada on the international stage, only receiving the chance to once in 2021 at the World Championship in Latvia. However, to say the former sixth-round selection lit it up would be an understatement, as his quickness and playmaking ability allowed him to lead the whole tournament in points with 16, recording 14 assists in the process.

Career statistics

Although Brown had a significant OHL career, recording 128 points in 68 games as the captain of the Erie Otters, the totals throughout his NHL career have never mirrored that success level. Maybe the reasoning for such success in Erie can be attributed to playing alongside a young phenom named Connor McDavid, or maybe it was the coaching of the current Oiler’s Head Coach, Kris Knoblauch.

Either way, Brown’s best statistical season came in 2019–20 as a member of the Ottawa Senators. Even though he did not play a full 82-game season, Connor was still able to total 43 points, with the number of assists being recorded, 27, also being a personal best. Brown’s highest goal total in a season was 21, recorded the following season showing that to date, his career peak was between 2019–21.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTOI+/-SS%
2015-16TOR715614:58-2119.1
2016-17TOR8220163616:12313914.4
2017-18TOR8214142815:01011911.8
2018-19TOR828212913:4811859.4
2019-20OTT7116274320:07-61739.2
2020-21OTT5621143518:15112317.1
2021-22OTT6410293920:03-151218.3
2022-23WSH400416:46-320.0
2023-24EDM71481212:48-81083.7
Career5199413422816:23-1988110.7%

Player profile

Brown’s game has evolved. As described by one scout, Brown is a plug-and-play winger who has strong offensive instincts resulting in good numbers at lower levels and plays with a resilient and tenacious approach. Although his numbers may not resemble that of his OHL days, Brown has utilized that resiliency and tenacity to become one of the premier forechecking penalty killers on Edmonton’s first unit, with skating ability giving him the time and space necessary to make strong quality scoring chances from dangerous areas of the ice surface.

Strengths

Thanks to his speed and recovery from ACL surgery, Brown’s speed gradually recovered throughout the season, enabling him to gain quickness going into the playoffs. Even with the injury that caused him to miss most of the 2022–23 season, Brown was still able to control the underlying metric categories during the regular season even though the on-ice results did not show up.

For playing third and fourth-line minutes mostly, Connor was able to still drive play in the positive direction by retaining greater puck possession numbers (+1%) and creating roughly equivalent relative danger quality chances (+0.5%). In expectant numbers at 5v5, Brown was 6 goals under what the projected numbers showed, scoring only four relative to the 10 expected. This could be a result of the high-danger chances, where when Brown was on the ice, Edmonton had 13 more high-danger chances compared to the opposition, or roughly 2.3% above the competition.

As mentioned, Brown has a very high operating motor driving his tenacity. Although undersized compared to most players in Edmonton, standing at 6’0” and lighter than every other returning forward from last year’s Stanley Cup postseason run, weighing in at 83 kg, he still had a +25 takeaway-to-turnover ratio, a very important skill for a bottom-six forward.

Weaknesses

Due to the physical limitations of his size, there are several weaknesses within Brown’s game. First, maybe it was just unluckiness during his first season with Edmonton, but his shot volume was down compared to previous levels, hitting only 108 in 71 games, roughly 1.5 per game; for his career, he is much closer to 1.7 shots per game. With lower volume than usual coupled with a career-low shooting percentage of 3.7%, Brown’s career average is 10.7%, it strives to reason why Brown had such a poor first season. It is hard not to mention the need for greater statistical success this season with the past season’s bonus overage hanging over the cap constraints of a Stanley Cup contending team.

Although much was made of his play in the playoffs, there were still notable struggles. Brown’s positive underlying metrics mentioned above, fell to 10% less than what they were in the regular season, meaning they were only driving play positively and controlling the quality of chances against two-fifths of the time, indicating the puck was going the wrong direction 60% of the time with Brown present on ice.

Organizational fit

In the short term, Brown slots in ideally on the third line alongside Janmark and Henrique, reuniting the dynamic third line from the past season’s playoff run. Taking command of the penalty kill will translate into greater success and hopefully an uninjured, rehabbing offseason will allow a return to full health and return to career norms for Brown in terms of scoring and shooting percentage.

Overall, this season counts as a “bet on oneself” as Brown is trying to prove to 31 other NHL teams that he still is fully healthy enough to be rewarded by a longer-term contract with a high AAV. Signed for only one year currently, and with the acquisitions of Matt Savoie and Roby Jarventie pushing for playing time, Brown will have to prove to Knoblauch that although there was magic found during the 2023–24 postseason run, not only on the penalty kill but on the scoresheet too (six points), it will need to be kept up to open the season or Brown may find himself on the outside looking in as the Oilers push for another cup berth.

Darnell Holt

Hello, my name is Darnell Holt. I am currently an employee in the finance sector, focusing on agriculture. My background includes holding two degrees from the University of Saskatchewan, a Master of Science in Agriculture Economics and a Bachelor of Science in Agriculture Business. However, I am a small-town Alberta boy with a love for analytics and a massive fandom for anything sports, especially for my home province Edmonton Oilers.

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