In a bit of a surprise move, the Edmonton Oilers traded prospects Xavier Bourgault and Jake Chiasson to the Ottawa Senators for Roby Jarventie and a fourth-round pick in 2025. This deal really doesn’t move the needle at the NHL level right away, but does have longer term implications for both sides.
As with everything, there are winners and losers to each trade. Let’s take a look at how both sides came out.
How did the Oilers fare?
According to sources, the Oilers have had their eye on Jarventie since before he was drafted, but with an early first-round pick and their next pick being in the fourth round, they did not have the opportunity to draft the Finnish forward. However, with this trade, the Oilers finally got the guy they have watched for some time now.
Since being drafted very early in the second round of the 2020 NHL Draft, Jarventie has blossomed in the Ottawa system. He played his D+1 season exclusively in the Finnish Liiga, where he was a half-point-per-game player as a 19-year-old in a men’s league.
From there, he jumped over to the AHL, and was about a half-point-per-game player in year one, recording 11 goals and 22 assists in 70 games. Jarventie finished fifth in scoring on the team that year and helped them reach the playoffs.
The following year, his production jumped proportionately, as he recorded 30 points in 40 games, but he missed 12 weeks mid-season to a knee injury. Still, his numbers looked really good in that time and he continued to be one of the team’s top players.
This past season, again, was shortened, and Jarventie played 22 games before having his season cut short due to knee surgery. He had 20 points before being shut down, and saw his first NHL action, featuring in seven NHL games and recording an assist for the team.
Now an Oiler, the expectation is that Jarventie is at worst near NHL ready and at best a legit NHL winger. The Oilers will have done well if Jarventie can play most of the season in the NHL, and can be a reliable middle-six option next season. This is a question mark given his lack of NHL games and health, but for a 21-year-old prospect who is 6’2″ and has always been highly touted, this is a good gamble to take.
The other question is what is Jarventie’s ceiling? He likely tops out as a middle-six winger who can provide offensive upside with a floor of being a reliable NHL body who can slot in as needed. Is this better than a player with higher upside but a longer runway to the NHL, maybe not long-term, but for a team very much in their winning window, acquiring Jarventie is a win for the Oilers.
The Oilers also got a fourth-round pick out of the deal, which they have been really good at developing into NHLers. Erik Gustafsson in 2012, William Lagesson in 2014, and Caleb Jones in 2015 were all fourth round picks. Not the best pick to get, but one more selection is never a bad thing.
Grade: B+
How did the Senators fare?
The Oilers’ 2021 first-round pick put up unbelievable numbers in the QMJHL in his D+1 season before making the jump over to the AHL. However, Bourgault’s transition to the big league has been slower than expected, putting up twin half-point-per-game seasons in the two years he was in the league.
Having an ok second AHL season is fine, but his underlying numbers took a dive as well. He dropped in the number of goals, number of points, and the number of shots this season. He also fell from the first power play to the second, saw less time on the penalty kill, and had fewer minutes this past season. On top of that, he missed more than a month with a shoulder injury. And while having a shoulder injury is far from risky for a prospect, the fact that he saw no change in his numbers in the second year of his season is really not good.
On paper, Bourgault has a high ceiling, and could be a middle-six winger in the NHL if all works out, but he will need to show that he is more than he has been at the AHL level to this point. Best case scenario, last season’s injury was a major burden to him and was a real reason why he dropped off in production. If this season is a major step forward for the Quebec-born product, it could be a big payoff for the Senators.
Chiasson meanwhile seems to be fine organizational depth. Following his 20-year-old season in the WHL, the former fourth-round pick turned pro this season, but spent most of the season in the ECHL. Through 65 games, he had 20 points. At best, Chiasson is probably an AHLer, and given the choice between him and a lottery ball, the latter is always preferred.
Grade: C
Who won the trade?
On the face of it, this feels like a clear win for the Oilers. Not only did they end up with the best player today out of the deal, they also ended up with the one who is closer to NHL ready. On top of that, they got an extra contract spot, shed a tiny bit of salary, and got another draft pick. This is a clear win.
Now, Ottawa could end up being the long term winner of this deal if Bourgault pans out as expected. On paper, Bourgault has the higher ceiling of the two prospects, but it will take him probably another full season of growth before he is NHL-ready, and even then, it will take him time to develop into an effective NHLer. For the Oilers in their window, waiting at least two more seasons is not in their best interest. For the Senators, they have that luxury of time.
But even if Bourgault long-term ends up having the better NHL career, unless it is markedly better, worst case for the Oilers this ends up being a wash. The Oilers got Jarventie, who is NHL ready and needed now, and Ottawa got the player who may be better in the NHL later and have the capacity to wait as he develops. While there are injury risks on both sides, I would take the Oilers as the winners of this trade.
