Leon Draisaitl has been one of the top contributors throughout the NHL this season, especially in the opening rounds of the postseason. Carrying Edmonton throughout the first two playoff series has helped Edmonton to the Stanley Cup Final, but where has the production gone when the team needs him most? Let’s delve into whether Draisaitl is still contributing positively even though it has not been reflected on the scoreboard.
Conventional statistics versus Florida
| G | A | P | H | S | FO% |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 47.5% |
Draisaitl has remained productive albeit struggling in a few key areas so far this series against Florida. In unfamiliar territory, Draisaitl finds himself goalless, generating only two assists in five games, sitting 14th on the team. This is not to say Draisaitl is not trying, sitting second on the team with 13 shots and 10th in hits.
However it is in the face-off dot, where Draisaitl is generally exemplary, where he has been subpar, winning only 47.5% of draws. Yet this actually sits third on Edmonton, minimum 15 draws taken. This could be a result of a few reasons but the larger one being Aleksander Barkov, who is winning 58% of face-offs.
Advanced statistics (5v5)
| iXG | iHDCF | C% | XG% | HDC% | PDO | OZ% | DZ% |
| 0.51 | 2 | 49.3 (6) | 55.0 (4) | 55% (7) | 0.971 (11) | 42.9% | 35% |
Draisaitl’s independent metrics do provide a stark undertone of relatively below average play over the first five games of the series. Leon himself has only generated 0.5 an expected goal at even strength, although this number does increase to two at all strengths, indicating he has been robbed by Bobrovsky several times on the power play. The seventh best ranking of Oiler forwards for iXG is concerning, especially when Leon only has two HDCF, both of which came in Game 1.
Unlike the McDavid line, the Draisaitl line has been deployed defensively at a higher rate, starting 35% of face-offs in the defensive zone due to being one of Edmonton’s premier centreman. However, the 47.5% win rate of draws translates into lower than average C%, indicating Draisaitl’s line has been on the ice for more shot attempts against than for. This implies his line is losing the puck possession battle with Florida. However, Draisaitl’s line has been very strong at controlling shot quality, highlighted by holding Edmonton’s fourth best mark, due to retaining an above average HDC% or limiting the opponent from high-danger areas while generating strong scoring opportunities.
Linemates
| Game | Players | C% | XG% | HDC% | GF | GA |
| 1 | McDavid, Hyman | 73.9 | 63.8 | 66.7 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Holloway, Henrique | 50.0 | 26.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Mcleod, Perry | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Holloway, Nugent-Hopkins | 40.0 | 44.2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Holloway, Nugent-Hopkins | 23.1 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
Although the above production data looks very strong for Draisaitl, the game by game metrics do not support such analysis. Game 1 data provides overwhelmingly strong results that wash out how bad the last four games have been, likely assisted by playing with Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman. For example, in the first game, when paired with McDavid and Hyman, the line controlled nearly 3/4 of all shot attempts, 2/3 of all high-danger chances, and 65% of shots likely to result in goals.
The last four games paint a must different picture, with Game 3 marking the low point of the series for Draisaitl. At even strength, the combination of Ryan McLeod, Draisaitl, and Corey Perry generated zero shot attempts, translating into no shots on net, providing zero opportunity for likelihood of a goal or a high danger chance. Although this line played favourably against Dallas, it is safe to say it will be a combination not used by Coach Kris Knoblauch against Florida in Games 6 or possibly 7.
Dylan Holloway has been a staple alongside Draisaitl but this has not yielded the most optimal results. Only in Game 2 has the Draisaitl line controlled above 50% of the shot attempts, but in none of the past four games has any sort of combination recorded a high danger scoring chance. The worst statistic of a high scoring forward like Draisaitl is the lack of production. Although there has only been one goal scored against his line in five games, Leon has not even been present on the ice for an Oiler goal, except once when playing with Perry and McDavid, but otherwise has failed to generate anything noticeable for the stat sheet.
What’s going on with Draisaitl?
Maybe it is the loss of Evander Kane who he showed solid chemistry with throughout the season. Could it be the result of Barkov, who when Draisaitl is not playing against, Draisaitl has posted much stronger underlying metric numbers against including an XG% of 58% and C% of 51% proving above average puck possession and shot quality control.
Overall, the team needs Draisaitl to get going to ensure there will be a Game 7 and the teams hope of continuing this series remain. Finding the right combination is key though and the past four games have yielded uninspiring results to say the least but avoiding McDavid-Draisaitl paring vastly improves the Oilers depth and allows Barkov to only centre on one of them.
Lastly, is it the result of an unspoken injury as Draisaitl has not initiated as much physical contact and engagement, only throwing six hits so far to date. Whatever the case is, both the conventional and underlying metrics indicate there is something off in Leon’s game, and Edmonton can only hope he finds the solution before the season is too late.
References: NaturalStatTrick
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
