Aleksander Barkov: The X-Factor to counter Connor McDavid

Aleksander Barkov is a premiere forward on the Florida Panthers as players of his calibre and skill in the NHL are few and far between. Selected second overall in 2013 behind Nathan MacKinnon, Barkov has done nothing but prove himself valuable of that draft pick as development, skill, and intangibles have led to him becoming one of the best two-way forwards in the league.

Results against the Panthers (5v5)

The Florida Panthers have not had an easy path to the final, besting their interstate rivals Tampa Bay in five, knocking off the pesky Bruins in six, and handling the Rangers in six as well. Each of these teams retains stars within their team that each coach devises game plans through as they are the best talent respectively on their roster.

To retain a fair comparison between the effectiveness of Barkov amidst the various series, 5v5 play was selected as an exclusive ice-time determinate to mitigate the argumentative nature of powerplay merchants. In total, the stars of the three teams the Panthers eliminated only totaled seven points at even strength, noting the impact of Barkov, the likely winner of the 2024 Selke trophy for best defensive forward.

Nikita Kucherov, the 2024 Art Ross trophy winner, who totaled 144 points throughout the 2023–24 season, was held to only three 5v5 points through the series. Additionally, the underlying metrics further show Kucherov’s struggles against Florida, noting creating only 0.55 goals during the series, as the play-making forward generated below 20 shot attempts on the net, and was only on the ice for 20 high-danger chances by his team.

David Pastrnak, a notable goal scorer who has terrorized goalies over the past decade, was held scoreless against the Panthers at even strength. Although his expected stats show that he should have scored almost two even-strength goals, likely the result of 28 generated chances and 24 high-danger chances over the six-game span, Barkov’s work of keeping Pastrnak from looking dangerous via shadowing and mitigating second chances led to the Bruin’s head coach calling out Pastrnak during post-game press conferences.

In the third-round series against the Rangers, Barkov held Artemi Panarin to only two secondary assists throughout the series. Similar to Kucherov, the underlying metrics denote an expected goal of 0.6 even with 27 chances generated toward the net indicating the vast majority of Panarin’s chances were of the non-dangerous, lower-quality variety.

How does Barkov become so effective? Not only is his primary starting area the defensive zone 35% of the time after a whistle stoppage, but he is also winning 55% of his draws, giving Florida possession of the puck, enabling a cleaner exit, and limiting opposing stars’ offensive zone time. Additionally, he leads not only the Panthers but is tied for the playoff lead in takeaways with 17, utilizing his combination of an active stick, physicality, and speed to close gaps and create turnovers by opposing players.

McDavid results (5v5)

Without getting into the conversation about power play merchants, McDavid has been impressive at even strength, leading the playoffs with 15 5v5 points. Of the 15 points, nine of them are primary assists, which coincidentally, Zach Hyman leads the playoffs with nine even-strength goals, indicating the connection will threaten Barkov’s style with having to contend between the dogged willingness of Hyman, uber-talented McDavid, and Swiss army knife Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

As the results show, McDavid’s on-ice underlying metrics have trended upwards, heating up as McDavid has begun to dominate. Within each series, there was always a supremely talented defensive forward shadowing McDavid, whether it was the combination of the Kings’ Anze Kopitar and Philip Danault, Vancouver’s J.T. Miller, or Dallas’ Roope Hintz.

Although Barkov may be on a different level given his Selke nominations, Dallas always held the elite shutdown pairing of Chris Tanev and Esa Lindell, but McDavid’a ability to adjust within the series to exploit each team’s tendencies has been huge, with props to Kris Knoblauch as well. For example, with Dallas playing a box plus high one, with the bottom four collapsing to take away Hyman tap in, and the fifth ready to fly the zone to create an offensive chance and space; McDavid would counter by playing deep on the strong side and continuing to feed the defensive to create space to find Nuge in the higher slot or Bouchard for a Bouch Bomb.

The advanced metrics further support the McDavid adaptation and even strength dominance, most notably against Dallas. For example, Connor did score two goals in the series and the expected indicates he should have netted at least 1.5, roughly matching the actual results. The analytics correspond strongly with 35 individual shot attempts and being present on ice for 29 high-danger chances at even strength, rates of roughly six shot attempts per game, and being on ice for five high-danger chances for per game.

How will they stack up?

Overall, this task will be best-on-best. Barkov excels at using his size and strength to close gaps and create a quick stick to create turnovers. Additionally, Barkov has eliminated star production by controlling the middle of the ice, limiting the high-danger opportunities against, and keeping shots from lower-quality areas.

McDavid has been McDominate in the playoffs and is only getting better round by round, hopefully saving his best for the final. Not only does he lead the playoffs at even-strength scoring, but he has also effectively neutralized stalwart defensive players at their own game, flipping the script and making them chase and play his game.

Overall, the question will become can Barkov neutralize McDavid to the extent that the depth battle becomes more apparent, which Edmonton luckily has the two-headed monster of Draisaitl waiting to step up and carry the load. McDavid has historically been able to excel in these situations, but the pedigree of Barkov’s defensive play and results so far this playoffs prove a strong indication this will be McDavid’s toughest test of the 2024 playoffs.

References: https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?stdoi=std

Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire