With the trade deadline nearing, speculations abound, the discourse of valuation descending onto both teams and players. Who is a buyer? Who is a seller? Who is available? Who is needed? What does it cost? What can be afforded? Fans and management teams alike will argue their view, and deals will be made, or not made, that will change the landscape of the league for years to come.
No different are the Edmonton Oilers, caught in a clear Stanley Cup window, and reclaiming their place as a true contender after a slow start to the season. Despite an improving team, looking stronger than ever during the Connor McDavid era, the Oilers can still improve, and likely will find themselves tinkering with their roster in hopes of achieving the balance that will lead them to glory.
At different points this season, the biggest item on most wish lists might have changed, especially given the extreme streaks of both wins and losses that have defined the Oilers season. For now, one of the hottest discussions surrounds upgrading the right side of the blueline, or more precisely finding an ideal partner for Darnell Nurse.
In general conventions of roster building favours having defencemen on their strong sides, and the current trend is in favour of length and strength on bluelines across the league. These are criteria that the Oilers seem to value, given the makeup of their current defence group, though it is not one free from criticism. Many might feel positional archetypes are outdated, or that handedness and height have little to do with on ice success. Just the same, others might hold stats and player cards in contempt.
Alas, we won’t be unifying the masses on this issue here, but it is important to question what we think we know, at least to an extent, and to entertain ideas other than our own. As much as these stats or old school values are built off of refined knowledge and process neither is infallible, and blindly taking either as the whole truth is equally unsophisticated.
Let’s dive into some of the play styles and results of Nurse, his current partner Cody Ceci, as well as some of the rumoured replacements that might be available.
Nurse’s contribution to the Oilers
Nurse is often thought of as the epitome of a two-way defenceman, but the results show us this isn’t exactly true. While Nurse is not the natural power play quarterback that Evan Bouchard is, he is consistently a strong contributor to offence at even strength. While Nurse certainly has tools that can be leveraged defensively, strength, size, and skating, he is not a true shutdown defender like Mattias Ekholm.
Whether or not Nurse is overpaid, by how much, and how tenable his contract is are certainly questions that many will focus on. Regardless, Nurse is clearly a part of the Oilers core for the time being, and more important than tearing him down from this perceived cost inefficiency, is the Oilers finding a way to improve their team by supporting him.
If we take this player card at face value, some areas where Nurse might require support are defending zone entries, and to a lesser extent some help in zone exits. The strong penalty killing proficiency is important, and perhaps telling of some in-zone defensive capabilities, though fans have lamented his mistakes in coverage at times. Because of this, some of the key parameters for an ideal Nurse partner are defending the rush, defending in-zone, and breakout pass ability.
What does Ceci bring to the table?
For the past three seasons, Cody Ceci has filled in admirably as Nurse’s partner, logging huge minutes as the Oilers improved from a frail playoff hopeful to a legitimate playoff contender. It’s true, Ceci is nowhere close to being an all-star calibre player, a fact that is reflected in his cap hit, yet his contributions from a cap efficiency perspective are hardly ever appreciated. Go figure.
Of course it is very possible for the Oilers to upgrade over Ceci, but the focus of much of the Oilers discourse is quite negative. This is reflected across many of the public numbers on Ceci, including the player card above. However, this tweet from years ago obscures this straightforward analysis.
At the time, fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs were not happy, wishing Ceci would be gone. He played on the Leafs top pair alongside Morgan Reilly, Ceci clearly operating as the defensive conscience for a team with some level of Cup aspirations. Even in the comments on this post we can see many Leaf fans expressing similar discontent towards Ceci’s on-ice contributions. Of course, the Leafs did not re-sign Ceci, who went to the Pittsburgh Penguins for one season before ending up in Edmonton.
Despite all this, until the Ekholm trade last season Ceci was playing top minutes, even the biggest role he had ever played, on the best team he’d ever been on. His current slotting is no doubt more appropriate, essentially a #4 defenceman, but there is a clear disconnect between public opinion, public numbers, and the opinions of the multitude of GMs and coaches who employ and deploy him. Polarising, in a word.
At the very least Ceci offers the size and strength to defend in tight quarters. This is reflected in the strong performances for both Nurse’s penalty killing effectiveness as well as the Oilers newfound aptitude in this area as a whole.
We can see from his microstat card that Nurse is doing essentially all the retrievals and in zone puckhandling, meaning any support from a new partner would be appreciated, but Nurse is holding up well on his own. Ceci’s transition defending has a few bright spots, in both carries against per 60 minutes and carries against percentage, but this does paint the picture that Nurse is bearing the heavier load here.
What Walker could offer the team
Enter Sean Walker, a right shot defenceman whose name is heavily involved in trade speculation, even being linked to the Oilers.
Walker has fared quite well in defending his blueline, grading out much more effectively than Ceci despite neither being targeted much. Walker has much more offensive contributions than Ceci, including some breakout passing skills which Nurse might enjoy. It should be noted that we might end up seeing either Nurse or Walker handle the puck less often in a hypothetical pairing together.
At first glance this does seem like a much better fit for Nurse than Ceci is, especially considering that Walker has contributed on the penalty kill this season, lending some credence to the idea that his in-zone defence is capable. That being said there is still an element of concern about how Nurse and Walker would mesh.
| Rank | Line | Minutes | Games | xGoals % | xGoals For Per 60 Minutes | xGoals Against Per 60 Minutes |
| 1 | Sanheim-Zamula | 52.5 | 28 | 65.90% | 3.32 | 1.72 |
| 2 | Staal-Ristolainen | 76.1 | 9 | 65.50% | 2.84 | 1.5 |
| 3 | Sanheim-Walker | 53.7 | 42 | 64.30% | 3.02 | 1.68 |
| 4 | Seeler-Walker | 499.1 | 48 | 54.50% | 2.9 | 2.42 |
| 5 | Seeler-Ristolainen | 67.6 | 18 | 52.60% | 2.66 | 2.4 |
| 6 | Zamula-Ristolainen | 194.1 | 21 | 51.20% | 2.53 | 2.41 |
| 7 | Sanheim-Drysdale | 76.4 | 8 | 50% | 2.04 | 2.04 |
| 8 | Sanheim-York | 623.5 | 49 | 49.10% | 2.39 | 2.47 |
| 9 | Zamula-Walker | 101.6 | 31 | 47.40% | 2.66 | 2.95 |
| 10 | York-Walker | 86.3 | 38 | 41.20% | 1.46 | 2.09 |
| 11 | Zamula-Belpedio | 90.2 | 11 | 37.30% | 1.46 | 2.46 |
As we can see, Walker has done quite well in generating offence, as each pairing he has been a part of has produced strong expected goals for per 60, regardless of partner. That being said, Walker’s defensive results this season have been much less steady. Pairings with stronger defenders such as Travis Sanheim and Nick Seeler have done well, while Walker pairings have struggled when Walker is expected to carry the load of the defensive conscience with younger partners.
With one year left on his deal, it is certainly a possibility that Walker gets traded at the deadline. Though the Flyers do find themselves in the playoff race more than we might’ve expected, there is still an expectation that the team will be a deadline seller. As right shots are rare there is a chance that the acquisition cost will be higher than expected.
Other options for the Oilers
In other words there should be some concern of how well a Nurse-Walker pairing would fare. Needless to say the duo would generate offence, but this is hardly the issue for the Oilers. Instead it is the commitment to defence that is the Oilers path forward, and so it might not be guaranteed that Walker would be an upgrade in this context. The Oilers clearly favour length and strength on the blueline, but would still have a lot, enough perhaps to add a defender of quality regardless of size while maintaining balance, and Walker seems to fit the bill.
Perhaps, if the Oilers did trade for Walker, it might make more sense to deploy him on the third pairing with Brett Kulak, trusting Vincent Desharnais to partner with Nurse. Desharnais is a superb in-zone defender, and has performed well in limited minutes with Nurse already. Desharnais has a vaguely functional passing game, though once again it is worth mentioning that Ceci is giving Nurse very little help in this area as it stands.
Fabbro involved in rumours
Dante Fabbro is another common name in trade rumours at this point, at least for hopeful Oiler fans. The Nashville Predators do find themselves in a similar spot to the Flyers, middling in the playoff bubble with a first year GM, meaning that it is hard to predict what the team’s deadline approach will be. Here we can see his strong retrieval skills, which doesn’t exactly help Nurse, and a worse rate of exiting the defensive zone with control than Ceci has achieved this season.
Fabbro has been playing with Roman Josi for most of this season, meaning he is used to having a partner handle the brunt of in-zone offence and to playing against top competition. In this sense, it’s easy to see how this would be a fit with Nurse, covering each other’s weaknesses to some extent. In some ways, Fabbro might even be a better fit than Walker. That being said, Fabbro has seen his icetime diminish throughout the season, only receiving about 15 minutes of late, despite regular shifts alongside Josi.
Still, the Nashville Predators are difficult to read, as in not obvious sellers at this point. First time GM Barry Trotz might well stay a course as his predecessor David Poile did, and has shown as much in his moves this offseason, loading up on veterans. Alex Carrier or even a forward in Tomas Novak are other option fans are dreaming of, yet there is hardly a guarantee the Predators will have an appetite to start moving out some very affordable players in their primes.
Adding Tanev to the mix
The best fit of all might be Chris Tanev of the Calgary Flames, who seem more and more likely to be trading Tanev. A pending free agent, this might be a pure rental, which will have to be negotiated aggressively with a number of teams likely to be interested in acquiring Tanev’s services over the next six months. It will be expensive both to trade for and potentially re-sign Tanev.
That being said, Tanev certainly has the greatest reputation of the potential acquisitions discussed. With a classic old-school defensive style, Tanev has always been an effective passer from his own end as well, making him a contributor with and without the puck. Tanev is a proven top pair defender who would be a clear upgrade on Ceci, building off all the positives that Ceci currently brings to the ice.
Tanev appears to be a better fit for helping Nurse with in-zone defence, while Walker’s entry defence numbers are more favourable. Still, from Tanev’s card on entry defence we can see that the most positive number is his chances against per 60, which ultimately is the most important.
Weighing them out
The biggest divide appears to be in what areas to target in finding Nurse a more favourable partner, in-zone or transition defence. Walker seems to have the edge in transition, but would be coming from a worse team into, arguably, a bigger role. Tanev certainly has the reputation, and a rare blend of in-zone skills the Oilers have continually sought in additions during the Ken Holland era.
To hold space for either from a longer term perspective might require including Ceci involved in the deal as well, similar to Tyson Barrie in the Mattias Ekholm trade last season. It is likely that the contracts that both Tanev and Walker sign this offseason will be more expensive than Ceci’s current deal.
| Player | Season | Team | GP | TOI All | EVO | EVD | PPO | SHD | Take | Draw | GAR |
| Sean Walker | 23-24 | PHI | 50 | 980.3 | 5.5 | 1.7 | -0.6 | 2.4 | 0 | -0.4 | 8.7 |
| Chris Tanev | 23-24 | CGY | 46 | 904.8 | 0 | 2.1 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 0.8 | -0.5 | 2 |
| Dante Fabbro | 23-24 | NSH | 41 | 685.4 | -1 | 1.1 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | -0.6 | 0.2 |
| Cody Ceci | 23-24 | EDM | 45 | 909.8 | 0.8 | -2.9 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | -0.6 | -1.4 |
Fabbro is certainly harder to gauge, on an expiring deal of his own, albeit as a far ending RFA instead of UFA. While some of these stats look favourably on Fabbro, his declining icetime should be of concern.
In a vacuum cases can be made for all three of Tanev, Walker, and Fabbro being upgrades on Ceci, yet the truth might not be so cut and dry. Many factors will go into the decision of attempting to upgrade on Ceci, including the limited amount of resources and cap space the Oilers have available. It is possible that the Oilers elect to add a forward or a goalie instead.
Photo by Ethan Cairns/Icon Sportswire
