After a nearly devastating start to the 2023–24 season, the Edmonton Oilers’ playoff hopes were nearly dashed by the middle of November. They were not looking like the Stanley Cup contenders that many had predicted they would, but instead were fighting for last place in the league with the San Jose Sharks.
A turnaround that started a month into the season has led to the Oilers clawing their way out of the league’s basement to a point where not only are they back in competition for a playoff spot, they have been one of the top teams in the league since that point.
Since November 12, Edmonton is fourth in the league in points with a 20–6–0 record for 40 points. This is good for second in the league in points percentage, as well (.769), behind only the Winnipeg Jets.
With 3.88 goals per game (101 total), the Oilers are in the top three of the league in goals for per game. And after a horrible start defensively and in net, Edmonton has only given up 2.54 goals against per game over this stretch, which is in the top five in the league.
Now that things have turned around and the team’s final position in the standings is now something we can look forward to again, we thought it was time to see what the temperature was within the fanbase in this week’s Sunday Census.
We asked the fans on Twitter where they think the Edmonton Oilers will finish in the standings at the end of the season.
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Leaving the entire Western Conference behind
What a turnaround this would be, right? To go from tied for last in the conference to leading the entire thing? With the way the Oilers have been playing the last two months, it would not be too surprising for them to somehow find a way to make it happen.
The third place finisher in this week’s poll, 8.7% of voters feel this is how the Oilers will cap off a crazy season.
The tricky part is the performance of the teams in front of them. It always seems easier to retain an early lead than it does to come back from a deficit, doesn’t it? And that is sort of what’s happening here. It’s taken two amazing months for the Oilers to just get back into a wild card spot, and because of the performance of the teams in front, they’ve barely caught up to some of the top teams.
The Jets are the only team that’s been better than Edmonton over this stretch. They appear to be the biggest barrier to Edmonton winning the Western Conference this season.
It may be unlikely that Edmonton can catch up to the Jets in particular, but it’s worth dreaming for, right?
Time to become the division champions?
Finishing second with 37.5% of the vote is becoming the division champions. The Oilers have not won a division title since 1986–87, a drought of nearly 40 years—one of the longest in the sport. And it would absolutely make for an amazing story to have that prominent of a turnaround in a single season.
But, once again, the tricky part is the performance of the teams in front of them. Despite playing at a .769 points percentage for the last two months, the Oilers are still in fourth in the division, 14 points behind the division leading Vancouver Canucks.
In fact, over these last two months, the Oilers have not caught up a single point to Vancouver as both teams have recorded 40 points. Edmonton has done so in fewer games, however.
Pacing things out over the remainder of the season, at their points pace since November 12, Edmonton projects to get another 66 points, giving them 113 on the season. Vancouver projects to get another 54 points, giving them 115 on the season.
So it is not completely out of the realm of possibility for Edmonton to catch up to Vancouver. But that is contingent on Edmonton playing at a .769 points percentage pace for nearly three quarters of a season, which is a pace that would be a top-10 regular season of all time.
Wild card spot to cap off a wild season
The Oilers have been battling for a wild card spot for the last couple of weeks, finally entering the playoff picture for the first time recently. But it has not been easy to get there and it will not be easy to remain in that spot.
There are seven teams within six points, spanning from the Los Angeles Kings in the third Pacific Division spot to the Arizona Coyotes in the fourth runner-up spot.
This fierce competition, where one loss or slow week could drop a team multiple positions, makes for a tense playoff race.
Edmonton has the benefit of games in hand over all of these teams but the Kings, which bodes well for later in the season and gives them a bit of leeway or cushion if they happen to have a bad week. But the margin for error is very slim.
It is unlikely that the pace the Oilers are playing at right now is sustainable over the course of the latter half of the season. Which makes the wild card spot the most realistic option for the team to finish in the 2023–24 season, chosen by 51% of the voters.
The pessimists among us are not convinced
Finishing in last place in this week’s poll with 2.9% of the fan vote is missing the playoffs. It isn’t an unrealistic viewpoint, given the team’s history over the past couple of decades. Some of us are still a bit hesitant to believe in the team and have faith that they can turn things around and win.
But this season, it is still not completely baseless to suggest they will not make the playoffs. It seems unlikely that the Oilers will perform at the same level the remainder of the season, there will likely be a bit of regression. It isn’t often a team regularly goes on seven-plus game win streaks multiple times in a season, after all.
And with how competitive the Western Conference is at these lower playoff spots, it could only take one more slump or a week or two of below average performance to drop the Oilers back out of a playoff spot. The Oilers and Nashville Predators hold the wild card spots with 47 points, but the Seattle Kraken also have 47 points.
Want to participate in our weekly polls? Give us a follow on Twitter! And drop a comment down below with where you think the Oilers will finish in the 2023–24 regular season.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
The division title drought is not just “one of the longest” in “the” sport, it’s THE longest in ALL NA pro sports. The next longest such drought is that of the Charlotte Hornets, who’ve never won their division, bur they didn’t commence play until 1988.