In each of the past three seasons the Edmonton Oilers have entered January with a decidedly mediocre record. Though this trend of early season drama is undesirable, the good news for Oilers Country is that the team seems on track to replicate their late season surges of 2021–22 and 2022–23 as well. What’s more is that over the course of these three seasons, the Oilers seem to be becoming a more sound team.
While the Oilers might still have some concerning potential design flaws, rounding their game into form is first and foremost in their quest for glory.
Contention for top of the Pacific Division
The added wrinkle this time around is that there is a looming storm ahead, as three Pacific Division rivals have emerged as legitimate contenders, or at least formidable obstacles. The Vegas Golden Knights are reigning Stanley Cup champions, and hardly a surprise among the NHL’s elite. The Los Angeles Kings continue their upward trajectory, a uniquely crafted team built on foundations of physicality and defence. Finally, the Vancouver Canucks have seemingly captured lightning in a bottle, surrounding their talented young core with enough support to rise to prominence.
| Team | Goals % | xGoals % | PDO (Sh%+Sv%) | Goals For Per 60 | Goals Against Per 60 (GAA) | Goals Differential Per 60 | Expected Goals For Per 60 | Expected Goals Against Per 60 | Expected Goal Differential Per 60 |
| 1 EDM | 52.90% | 58.02% | 99.28 | 2.91 | 2.59 | 0.32 | 3.2 | 2.31 | 0.85 |
| 2 LAK | 57.89% | 57.23% | 100.23 | 2.82 | 2.05 | 0.77 | 2.92 | 2.19 | 0.73 |
| 3 FLA | 53.60% | 55.05% | 99.51 | 2.29 | 1.98 | 0.31 | 2.8 | 2.29 | 0.51 |
| 4 NJD | 46.75% | 54.09% | 97.96 | 2.53 | 2.89 | -0.35 | 2.82 | 2.39 | 0.42 |
| 5 DAL | 51.53% | 53.79% | 99.89 | 2.82 | 2.66 | 0.17 | 2.59 | 2.22 | 0.34 |
| 6 CAR | 50.63% | 53.71% | 98.09 | 2.6 | 2.54 | 0.07 | 2.63 | 2.28 | 0.36 |
| 7 COL | 52.83% | 52.81% | 100.04 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.27 |
| 8 VGK | 53.42% | 52.78% | 100.64 | 2.53 | 2.2 | 0.32 | 2.75 | 2.46 | 0.29 |
| 9 PIT | 54.93% | 52.68% | 100.94 | 2.67 | 2.19 | 0.48 | 2.91 | 2.64 | 0.27 |
| 10 NSH | 47.52% | 52.05% | 99.6 | 2.22 | 2.45 | -0.23 | 2.68 | 2.45 | 0.2 |
| 11 SEA | 50.36% | 51.84% | 99.95 | 2.18 | 2.15 | 0.03 | 2.31 | 2.15 | 0.16 |
| 12 MIN | 54.17% | 51.77% | 101.76 | 2.7 | 2.29 | 0.42 | 2.39 | 2.22 | 0.14 |
| 13 WPG | 63.16% | 51.47% | 103.22 | 2.87 | 1.68 | 1.2 | 2.53 | 2.36 | 0.14 |
| 14 PHI | 52.35% | 51.31% | 99.84 | 2.6 | 2.36 | 0.23 | 2.46 | 2.36 | 0.1 |
| 15 CGY | 46.05% | 50.11% | 97.84 | 2.34 | 2.74 | -0.4 | 2.44 | 2.44 | 0 |
| 16 NYR | 49.32% | 50.04% | 99.48 | 2.46 | 2.53 | -0.07 | 2.53 | 2.5 | 0 |
| 17 TOR | 50% | 49.86% | 99.99 | 2.63 | 2.63 | 0 | 2.66 | 2.66 | 0 |
| 18 BOS | 57.25% | 49.78% | 102.66 | 2.6 | 1.94 | 0.66 | 2.5 | 2.53 | 0 |
| 19 VAN | 61.04% | 49.50% | 105.05 | 3.16 | 2.02 | 1.14 | 2.46 | 2.52 | -0.03 |
In these even strength team stats, courtesy of Moneypuck, we can see that the Oilers and these three divisional rivals rank among the league’s best. For their part, the Oilers are alone among this group in vastly underperforming their expected goals share, while the Canucks have been able to do the opposite. While these raw numbers tell some of the story, let’s take a deeper look at the Golden Knights, Kings, and Canucks, and what their respective strengths mean for the Oilers.
Vegas Golden Knights
As the reigning champions, the Knights are due an amount of respect, the glow of their recent glory a rare adorning feature, proof that the group has what it takes to win again. Last season was not without adversity for the Knights, though the team was able to navigate injuries and the salary cap to overwhelm opponents with their depth last season.
The depth seems to have been whittled away to an extent, at least for the time being, especially with defenceman Shea Theodore out of the lineup. With Reilly Smith traded away and Chandler Stephenson coming back down to earth after some outstanding seasons, the Knights might lack a bit of their former forward strength. Pavel Dorofeyev seems to be making his mark in the NHL, and Paul Cotter has shown that his effectiveness last season was no fluke, helping to counteract some of this talent drain, though deadline deals to bolster the forward group might be on the horizon.
It would be an unlikely feat to repeat as champions, but with health and a forward addition or two the Knights will surely be among the popular choices to make a deep run in the playoffs. The Knights have some older players in key roles, including Mark Stone and Alex Pietrangelo, meaning that their window might not be open for much longer, but the team is well equipped for the time being.
Of course, the Knights defeated the Oilers last playoffs. It is only a moral victory, but the Oilers were clearly closest to a series win of the Knights 2022–23 playoff opponents, and might well have been able to put up a better fight. If the Oilers have improved themselves, the Knights being any worse than last season might well tip the scales in a rematch. Still, the Knights are cruising to a strong regular season performance, and make for a formidable incumbent.
Los Angeles Kings
Speaking of familiar playoff opponents, the Oilers have been able to defeat the Kings in back-to-back first round series, though both were hard fought battles that were too close for comfort. With some younger players, like Quinton Byfield and Jordan Spence, coming into their own this season, as well as the addition of Pierre-Luc Dubois, the Kings are even stronger this season, reinforced by their record and performance so far.
With Dubois joining a duo of Selke worthy centres in Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault, as well as a balanced blueline led by Drew Doughty and Vladislav Gavrikov, the Kings have a uniquely strong defensive spine. This has made their tandem of Cam Talbot and Pheonix Copley very effective. The Kings have a formidable penalty kill as well, matching the Oilers strength on strength across the board.
With a number of scoring wingers, the Kings have all the ingredients of a true contender, and are deserving of their status among the league’s top teams. Still, there might be some depth moves to improve the team in the coming months. Time will tell if the Kings have enough firepower to beat the Oilers this time around, should they meet in the playoffs.
Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks might be one of the biggest risers across the league, though with their high end players a turnaround was always in the cards if the team was able to solidify their roster with balance. The front office has made several key moves in filling out their lineup, including a clear win with Filip Hronek. New coach Rick Tocchet is receiving his share of praise for his work, including the huge turnaround that the Canucks have achieved after a dreadful performance last season.
The Canucks do give some reasons for doubt, namely an inflated PDO (shooting percentage plus saving percentage), often seen akin to luck. The Canucks have been able to stay ahead this far, and might be able to continue the trend thanks to their elite players. Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson, and Thatcher Demko are all proven playoff performers, having performed well in the bubble playoffs of 2019–20, all capable of controlling a playoff series.
The Canucks might have their bubble burst, a harsh fall if their shooting or saving goes cold, yet the team showed some self awareness in their tenuous grasp of depth after Carson Soucy was lost to LTIR. Acquiring Nikita Zadorov early shows that management has not lost sight of how detrimental a weaker blueline has been to their returning to the playoffs. This might continue to the extent that the Canucks continue to upgrade their blueline into the trade deadline.
How the Oilers can outdo their rivals
For the Oilers, as mentioned above, the top priority is getting their game, and record, in order. Despite another dreadful fall, the Oilers do appear to be en route to their annual rise up the standings down the back half of the season. Still, the making of improvements are present and stirring, another coach taking the Oilers defensive game to a new level, this time adorned with an improving penalty kill.
Under former Coach Jay Woodcroft, the Oilers were never able to achieve an 80% penalty killing efficiency, often a demarcation of the top 10-15 teams league wide. The team is slowly climbing to that mark, which would be a huge advantage come playoff time. Against evenly matched opponents, special teams can be a huge factor in a playoff series. With the Oilers talent on the power play, a reasonably strong penalty kill is a guarantee that they will have a shot at winning a series even without control of even strength play. Given that the Oilers are dominant in this area as well, the Oilers are becoming a daunting opponent.
Though the Oilers are likely to climb their way up the standings, a divisional playoff spot might be too much ground to make up. With the Central Division housing three clear playoff teams of their own, in the Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, and Winnipeg Jets, the Oilers are virtually guaranteed to have a tough first round opponent. To this point, the Western Conference might not have as much top to bottom strength as the Eastern Conference, but it does have at least seven high quality teams, including the Oilers.
To win the Stanley Cup the Oilers must be able to beat every team, no matter how strong, but there won’t be any layups early on. The past two seasons the Oilers have lost to the eventual Stanley Cup champion, a fate that is entirely possible once again this season.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
