Although eyes across Oil Country are focused on the Edmonton Oilers and their performance in the upcoming season, there are a number of salient storylines budding across the other 31 teams in the NHL. Understandably, fans can get lost in the happenings regarding their favourite team, especially when their team is a true perennial contender as the Oilers are. With back-to-back seasons winning a playoff round in the rear view, as well as a stacked roster including two MVPs, the Oilers and captain Connor McDavid have all but come into their own as champions, leaving all involved hungry for more.
Bedard on the heels of McDavid
Meanwhile, a new “generational talent” appears on the horizon, as Connor Bedard is set to begin his NHL career as a member of the Chicago Blackhawks. Though the NHL has seen a number of elite prospects since McDavid came into the league, the sheer absurdity of Bedard’s junior career was beyond anything we’ve seen since. Though such expectations are a lot to place at Bedard’s feet, just as they were placed upon McDavid’s, both have earned these reputations thanks to a visible excellence of quality, rarely seen.
We have gotten used to McDavid chasing greatness, as he will continue to do, but for the first time he will be chased. To set the stage, let’s take a look at how the 2023–24 Chicago Blackhawks and the 2015–16 Oilers compare to each other, and how that informs our expectations of how Bedard will fare in his rookie season versus how McDavid’s rookie season unfolded.
McLellan’s time with the Oilers
Todd McLellan was in his first season as Oilers coach, held in high esteem and with a track record of success. McLellan was about as good a coach one could have asked for headed into 2015–16, though things did not have a fairytale ending between coach and team. Ultimately, McLellan has proven to be a strong NHL coach since leaving the Oilers, at the helm of the Los Angeles Kings.
If anything, McLellan might have been too much too soon for the Oilers. McLellan’s track record is one of a tactician, a coach who wins, more than he has a track record as a teacher, with younger players seeming to blossom. Of course, McLellan oversaw the assertions of McDavid alongside Leon Draisaitl, and Darnell Nurse, to counter such a claim. Perhaps the Oilers flash in the pan success, an early trip to the second round in 2016–17, was in spite of the fact that the roster had not developed enough to sustain such results.
The Oilers backslid out of playoff contention, failing to qualify for three seasons after the run of 2016–17. It wasn’t until this season that the Oilers won playoff series in back-to-back seasons, the organisation’s first time since 1996–97.
Richardson fairly new as a head coach
Meanwhile, Bedard and the Chicago Blackhawks will be coached by Luke Richardson. Richardson is well liked as a coach and a person, but does not have an extensive record of NHL success as a head coach. In his first NHL head coaching job, time will tell if Richardson has chips as a tactician, instead the important metric of success over the next couple seasons will be his abilities as a teacher.
Early into their rebuild, perhaps most of the other teams with a shot at the chance to draft Bedard by lottery odds have more infrastructure, of prospects or players, than the Blackhawks do. In order for Richardson to retain his role as coach until the Blackhawks start contending for playoff spots, he will need several of the Blackhawks younger roster players to bloom into bonafide NHLers. As a former defenceman, the most critical part of the Blackhawks long term development this season might be the trajectory of some of their young defencemen.
The Oilers early playoff success will be tough for the Blackhawks to match, though the Blackhawks will be looking to solidify into a regular playoff team sooner than the Oilers did. Time will tell how things unfold for Richardson and the Blackhawks, but the relationship might be well illustrated by the respective coaches.
Comparing forwards in the lineup
| LW | C | RW |
| Benoit Pouliot | Connor McDavid | Jordan Eberle |
| Teddy Purcell | Leon Draisaitl | Taylor Hall |
| Jujhar Khaira | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | Nail Yakupov |
| Matt Hendricks | Mark Letestu | Lauri Korpikoski |
| LW | C | RW |
| Taylor Hall | Connor Bedard | Lukas Reichel |
| Andreas Athanasiou | Tyler Johnson | Taylor Raddysh |
| Philipp Kurashev | Jason Dickinson | Colin Blackwell |
| Nick Foligno | Ryan Donato | Corey Perry |
If there is one area that McDavid was much better supported in during his rookie season versus Bedard in his upcoming rookie season, it is in the level of talent in the respective forward groups of their teams. The Oilers were much further along in their rebuild in 2015–16 than the Blackhawks are now, best evidenced by the discrepancy of talent in this area.
While Taylor Hall finds himself on both these rosters, he is not quite the player he was as a member of the Oilers eight years ago, though he is likely the best forward on these rosters at the time, outside of McDavid and Bedard. The Oilers boasted a number of other core pieces and legitimate top-six forwards in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle. Both Leon Draisaitl and Nail Yakupov were thought to be on their way to top six levels of play, with Draisaitl asserting himself as a productive NHL forward during McDavid’s rookie season. Yakupov, of course, had already played his most impactful hockey, though he still inspired some hope at the time. The Oilers would add Pat Maroon part way through the season, adding another capable top-six forward to the mix.
The Oilers had some decent depth veterans, including Benoit Puliot, Teddy Purcell, Mark Letestu, and even Lauri Korpikoski. While these players were all closer to bottom-six forwards at this point, they still provided the group with legitimate NHL talent.
Blackhawks’ forward group not as strong
The Blackhawks of this season, meanwhile, don’t appear to be as strong, especially regarding top-six forwards who appear to be long term core pieces for the team moving forward. Andreas Athanasiou, Jason Dickinson, and Tyler Johnson might be the closest thing the Hawks have to this, though they might be best described as middle-six forwards. They are capable but likely slotted too high in the lineup to be considered ideal, and too old to be seen as true long term answers for the core.
The Blackhawks do have a number of capable depth forwards, including a group in their mid-20s who have a slim chance of developing into more. Joey Anderson, Boris Katchouk, Philipp Kurashev, Taylor Raddysh, and MacKenzie Entwistle all have some NHL experience, but will have to continue showing growth to earn a spot in the Blackhawks core.
There is a strong group of bottom-six veteran contributors as well, with Corey Perry and Nick Foligno offering potential as role models for Bedard to lean on, something McDavid did not have a lot of in his rookie season.
The best chance for a true running mate might come from Lukas Reichel. Reichel had 15 points in 23 NHL games last season, quite respectable as a 20-year-old rookie. The former first-round pick seems poised to be one of the more impactful Blackhawks forwards from a long term perspective, and could have a breakout season in his own right, before considering any chemistry with Bedard. It would be a lot to ask of Reichel to emulate the career of countryman Draisaitl, but he has an ideal opportunity before him to become a longtime linemate of Bedard at some point.
While there is something for Bedard to work with in this lineup, it isn’t quite to the level of the Oilers 2015–16 forward group, especially from an offensive perspective. The Hawks might have the upper hand in the defensive capabilities of their forwards, which could have its own benefits.
Over the years the Oilers spent much of their strength at forward to upgrade their blueline, something that left a lot of secondary scoring to be desired over McDavid’s career so far. Even with the MVP talent of Draisaitl alongside, the Oilers often struggled to score while the duo was on the bench, the Oilers lack of depth all but undoing their incredible work.
Though the Blackhawks do have promising prospects in Oliver Moore and Frank Nazar, they will almost certainly need to upgrade their forward group significantly to start making headway to regular playoff contention.
Comparing defencemen
| LD | RD |
| Andrej Sekera | Mark Fayne |
| Oscar Klefbom | Justin Schultz |
| Darnell Nurse | Eric Gryba |
| Jordan Oesterle | Griffin Reinhart |
| LD | RD |
| Alex Vlasic | Caleb Jones |
| Kevin Korchinski | Connor Murphy |
| Isaak Phillips | Nikita Zaitsev |
| Filip Roos | Wyatt Kaiser |
While the Blackhawks do have some promising young defencemen starting their NHL careers, the Oilers might have had a similar outlook with Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, Jordan Oesterle, Justin Schultz, and Griffin Reinhart all under 25 years old and looking ready to bud into NHL prominence in 2015–16.
The Oilers have seen their blueline thin out in unexpected ways over McDavid’s tenure. Klefbom was lost to injury, an unfortunate turn of events that every NHL player risks. Schultz demanded a trade out of Edmonton and Reinhart never turned into an NHL calibre player. Even Adam Larsson, who was acquired in a trade for Taylor Hall, was lost to the Seattle Expansion Draft, something Bedard’s Blackhawks won’t likely face in the early stages of his career.
Blackhawks’ blueline needs time to develop
Either way you slice it the Blackhawks will be tough to control play with the current state of their blueline. It took a long time for the Oilers to build up their defence group, as well as their defensive game in general, behind McDavid. While most of the Oilers current blueline was acquired during McDavid’s tenure, the Blackhawks might need one of their young defencemen to blossom, similar to how Nurse did with the Oilers, to take the step into playoff relevance.
Even though some of the Oilers 2015–16 blueliners remain relevant as NHL players today, it wasn’t necessarily as members of the Oilers. A mix of bad luck, strange circumstances, and poor planning led to a years-long problem for the Oilers. The Blackhawks will surely be hoping that more than one of Kevin Korchinski, Isaak Phillips, Wyatt Kaiser, or Alex Vlasic end up being long term NHL contributors.
They will need Seth Jones and Connor Murphy to age well, not only for their own sakes, but also as stable partners who bring impressive physicalities and experience to pairings with the younger players. While some may not condone their current contracts, Jones and Murphy both have a lot to contribute to a good NHL blueline. The closest thing the Oilers had to Jones and Murphy, as capable top-four NHL defenders between 26 and 32 years old, was Andrej Sekera, as Eric Gryba or Mark Fayne were never quite in such a stratosphere.
Seeing as so much went wrong for the Oilers blueline through the years, the Blackhawks might have an easier path to a formidable defence group. Though not overflowing with top end prospects, the Blackhawks are starting from a strong position, and still have an influx of prospects on the cusp of a regular roster spot.
Goaltending differences
| G |
| Cam Talbot |
| Anders Nilsson |
| Laurent Brossoit |
| G |
| Petr Mrazek |
| Arvid Soderblom |
| Jaxson Stauber |
This is an area in which McDavid’s Oilers outclass Bedard’s Blackhawks: goaltending. The Oilers made the move to acquire Cam Talbot, who at the time seemed poised to ascend to a starters role after years of being stuck behind Henrik Lundqvist on the New York Rangers. Talbot responded by putting together some of the best years of his career with the Oilers.
It wasn’t all roses, in the end, as Talbot was likely relied upon too heavily in Edmonton, flaming out by 2017–18. Talbot has since proven his strong play was no fluke, and seems poised to split starts with Phoenix Copley on the Los Angeles Kings this season. Talbot had Aders Nilsson and a handful of games from a young Laurent Broissoit behind him.
All together it was a modest and effective group, but one that offered visions of upside. The same hopes are not as evident in the Blackhawks crease, for the time being.
Goaltending situation for the Hawks
Although their careers might be similar in the grand scheme of things, Petr Mrazek, the Blackhawks presumed starter, is at a different stage of his development than Talbot was. Mrazek had some promise early in his career behind a stout Carolina Hurricanes team, but ended up on the Blackhawks as a cap dump after flaming out as a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Mrazek is more mercurial than most goalies, and at this point is best served as a tandem backup. Regardless of not possessing much future upside, Mrazek should do enough to put together some strong stretches in eating up a lot of starts for the Blackhawks this season.
Behind Mrazek the Blackhawks do have a depth of goalie prospects. Both Arvid Soderblom and Jaxson Stauber are entering their age 24 seasons, and have some starts behind a poor Blackhawks last season. Soderblom has a bit more professional experience, though Stauber has had the superior results. Either or both could develop into an NHL regular, perhaps as soon as this season, as Mrazek is hardly beyond supplanting as the Hawks long term solution in net.
Quite frankly the Hawks will need one of these young goalies to assert themselves this season, otherwise the team will almost assuredly look to make an upgrade next offseason. The Blackhawks do have other options further down the pipeline, with Drew Commesso and Adam Gajan representing notable prospects.
Despite never inspiring much hope in the offseasons, the Oilers have managed to respectable goaltending for most of McDavid’s career. While fans might gripe at some of the less than ideal individual contracts handed out to goalies by the Oilers, and without the perennial stability of a true franchise level goalie, the Oilers have had a fairly modern approach in the crease by having enough talent to ice a capable tandem. For the foreseeable future, the Blackhawks would do well to replicate these results in the coming seasons.
Individual production
Facetiously, poor defending and goaltending might provide Bedard with chances to pad his offensive totals with opposing teams slacking off late in blowout losses for the Blackhawks. A well documented rise in scoring league wide might help Bedard put up favourable offensive totals to McDavid’s rookie season, perhaps enough to counteract the superior talent surrounding the generational talents in their rookie seasons.
Given the similarities of their production in their CHL draft seasons, an extrapolation of expectations might see Bedard’s production mirror McDavid’s. Of course, McDavid suffered a hand injury in his rookie season, limiting him to just 45 games in his rookie year. Everything we have learned about McDavid since suggests that he would have only played better as the season progressed, meaning the injury likely obscured McDavid’s effectiveness through more than just games played. By this logic a fully healthy rookie season might be another favourable factor for Bedard. Similarly to McDavid, everything we’ve seen from Bedard suggests that he too rises to the occasion, overcoming all obstacles and adversities in his path.
It should be noted that while their draft year CHL production was quite similar, Bedard outperformed McDavid by a margin at the U20 World Juniors over their careers.
Combining all these factors, and adjusting for their respective levels of goals versus assists, we should expect Bedard to produce at just over a point per game during his rookie season, somewhere between 85 and 90 points over 82 games, with somewhere half of those points (40-45) being goals. These are, of course, the loftiest of expectations to place on a teenager, but quite frankly Bedard has earned such projections.
McDavid’s legacy thus far
This comparison of rookie seasons might make more sense for Blackhawks fans to focus on, while Oilers fans might be more tempted to look at the bigger picture when comparing the two superstars. Bedard enters the league as McDavid reigns with his third Hart Trophy as league MVP, with little left to prove as an individual player, safe for chasing down the greatest players in history.
McDavid broke into the league when another generational CHL graduate centreman was heralded as the best in the world, Sidney Crosby. Crosby had already been through quite a bit, as the age gap between Crosby and McDavid is two years greater than the gap between McDavid and Bedard. Crosby had been through a career threatening head injury that might have robbed him of his best years.
Crosby had won a Stanley Cup, been to another Stanley Cup Final, and delivered the iconic Golden Goal to win Canada the 2010 Olympic Gold Medal. McDavid has not had the chance to add such signature moments on the biggest stage like Crosby had. Crosby would go on to win two more cups, back-to-back in McDavid’s second and third seasons, including back -to-back Conn Smythe Trophies as playoff MVP.
Still, all this team success did little to hold off McDavid from being widely considered the best player in the world somewhere between his second and third seasons. A big part of this has to do with McDavid’s point production being so much higher than Crosby’s. In some ways, these facts might make us wonder how much we value team success in these evaluations, a fact Oilers fans could care less about, as McDavid and Oil Country itself yearn for the NHL’s ultimate glory.
Can Bedard keep up?
This does lead us to wonder whether or not Bedard will push McDavid for the mantle of the world’s top player, how soon that might be, and whether or not that has any effect on McDavid’s long term legacy. For at least another season McDavid’s crown in this respect is safe, but could Bedard start the conversation in year two or three?
Given that McDavid is continuing to soar to new heights, the two years difference in age gap might be enough to buy him more time on top. His absurd level of offensive production, in raw totals as well as relative to the rest of the league, should help in this regard as well. Naturally, a championship for the Oilers would go a long way as well, but 150 points away from 1000 in McDavid’s career, in other words another signature season, McDavid has a legitimate shot at finishing his career in the top 10 for all time NHL points, if not more.
This balance of team success might have an effect on Bedard’s side as well. It is unlikely a player can win MVP, no matter how dominant, without their team qualifying for the playoffs. Perhaps a lot of what propelled McDavid to such lofty heights so quickly was the Oilers surprising playoff run in 2016–17, something that Bedard’s Blackhawks will be hard pressed to equal.
If Bedard is able to follow McDavid’s footsteps of taking the league by storm, becoming recognized as the best in the world, it might take the wind out of the sails for comparing McDavid to the likes of Wayne Gretzky. Already a near insurmountable task, McDavid, or rather the narrative surrounding him, would be chased by greatness for the first time instead of merely chasing it. Holding off Bedard for top player for three seasons versus five seasons might make a big difference when stacking the greats against each other, as would a few more Hart Trophies.
With hopefully a lot of time left in both their careers, this exercise in comparison is just getting started, and much of their stories yet to unfold. One thing is certain, both McDavid and Bedard will be fully focused on the present, leaving such conversations for media, fans, and everyone else to wonder about.
Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire
